KDawgCometh 2 Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 I'd disagree with that - I think to make Jackson a star they just have to put him out on the media a few times, not take him out of action for the next 6 months because of TUF. Meanwhile, the 205 division is the most talented division in the sport and they're not going to start working through some of those dream matches for quite a while.you do realize that this is the point of booking right. HOlding off on some of these matches will allow bigger build up and thus, bigger buy rates Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 you do realize that this is the point of booking right. HOlding off on some of these matches will allow bigger build up and thus, bigger buy ratesIn the meantime, you have to put these fighters in the octagon and give them matches. Every time they fight, they risk a loss. If they lose, you lose a dream match. I don't care about the spin for Liddell vs. Silva - that match was much more attractive as a unification match. Dana et. al couldn't book the match as a unification fight, both fighters lost two matches in a row, and now instead of crowning Chuck Liddell the undisputed best 205 pounder in the world he's better than Silva but not as good as Rampage or Keith Jardine (he's better than Jardine, but he has to prove it). Go back to Ortiz vs. Belfort a few years ago - same thing. Or even Ortiz vs. Liddell. This is especially true with Machida - he consistently has put on some of the least interesting fights on every UFC card he's been on, and has never finished a UFC fight until last week. He's incredibly hot right now and is coming off a huge victory over the guy who was supposed to dominate the 205 pound division. Meanwhile Dana has the choice of either having him sit around for the next 12 months waiting for Rampage and Griffin to be done with their "feud," or put him back in the ring and remind people how boring he is. We also have to wait for Liddell vs. Jackson 3, and Chuck's not getting any younger. Every month that goes by where Chuck isn't in the title picture is one more month where his reflexes slow down and he becomes obsolete as a UFC fighter. Wanderlei isn't quite that old yet, but he likely won't be back in the title picture until he's 33 years old. Wandy vs. Rampage does a huge buyrate, but what are the odds that Rampage can hold on to the belt until then? Delaying on matches when there's not a huge backlog is a good thing, but that's not the case in the 205 pound weight class. If we were talking Faber vs. Pulver in the WEC I'd be completely with you. DEFINITELY the case with an incredibly vulnerable face champion like Matt Serra. The longer he can hold on to the belt the better. But 205 is the wrong weight class to do it. Link to post Share on other sites
KDawgCometh 2 Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 spider, Rampage doing TUF would only really prevent him from doing 1 fight as it's generally on a 4-7 month cycle for fights in a year, so this would maybe hold off 1 fight for them too. this is nowhere near as dire as you are trying to make it sound and will result in much bigger business. It won't be a 12 month wait for Lyoto as he'd get the next match, and quite frankly it wouldn't be a bad idea to have him up against a tomato can type so that he could get another possible finish to a fight. The 205 division still needs to sort itself out with some fights, so having Jackson vs Forrest like this allows that to happen, and again, it will do a massive buy rate because we will have two of the most charismatic fighters on TV as coaches.can you honestly say that just having a regular match between Griffen and Jackson will do as big of a buy rate as having them on TUF and then having a PPV match, cause if you are trying to say that, then you are dead wrong. Also, a match between Lyoto and Jackson or Griffen won't do big business, so they'd have to pair that up with another big match. Lyoto v Jackson is only a hardcore's "dream match" and if that was the ME of a PPV, that PPV would only really be doing business based on the UFC nameyou cite Jackson/Liddell 3, but Chuck needs to get another two wins to get to that and Jackson already holds the series edge on him and there isn't the hatred between them or personalities like there was in teh chuck/tito matches and tito/shamrock matches.THe UFC isn't sacrificing any future buy rates by having Jackson and Griffen do TUF because the way that the LHW division is set up right now, they can put off some matches so that things can line up and be able to do massive business in those matches. THere are few "dream matches" as you put it, so to let the dust settle a bit would be good business Link to post Share on other sites
ol'number7 0 Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 (quoting Spider)Re: Lesnar vs. Mir, I have a few thoughts. - Rumor is that Lesnar tried to negotiate for a title fight as his UFC debut. Dana said no to that obviously. Lesnar would only settle for a top opponent. They came up with Mir. - If you're Brock Lesnar and you want to hand pick a heavyweight opponent, who better than Frank Mir? If I'm a top level amateur wrestler with little/no boxing experience, I'd much rather face a jiu jitsu guy than Mirko Cro Cop or Andre Arlovski. - This is a win/win situation for Dana. If Lesnar wins, they have an instant star on their hands to lead the heavyweight division for the next 5 years. If Lesnar loses, Dana gets the satisfaction of pointing out how phony pro rasslers can't come in to the octagon and hang with a former champion well past his prime.I think this fight is actually about as good of a matchup as Brock could get (from a legitimate heavyweight), and I have no doubt that he'll win.I like Mir here as an underdog -- I think by fight time will be better value but who knows. Current futures:UFC 80 Metro Radio Arena, England: Heavyweights Sat 1/19 Gabriel Gonzaga vs Fabricio Werdum 12:30 PM 221 Gabriel Gonzaga -241 222 Fabricio Werdum +221 UFC 80 Metro Radio Arena, England: Lightweights Sat 1/19 BJ Penn vs Joe Stevenson 02:00 PM 21 BJ Penn -261 22 Joe Stevenson +241 UFC 80 Metro Radio Arena, England: Middleweights Sat 1/19 Kendall Grove vs. Jorge Rivera 12:00 PM 231 Kendall Grove -306 232 Jorge Rivera +276 UFC -Ultimate Fight Night-The Pearl, Nevada: Lightweights Wed 1/23 Alvin Robinson vs Nate Diaz 06:00 PM 261 Alvin Robinson +151 262 Nate Diaz -161 UFC -Ultimate Fight Night-The Pearl, Nevada: Middleweights Wed 1/23 Patrick Cote vs Drew McFedries 06:00 PM 251 Patrick Cote -126 252 Drew McFedries +116 UFC -Ultimate Fight Night-The Pearl, Nevada: Welterweights Wed 1/23 Mike Swick vs. Josh Burkman 07:30 PM 241 Mike Swick -176 242 Josh Burkman +166 UFC 81 - Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Heavyweights Sat 2/2 Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir 08:15 PM 271 Brock Lesnar -146 272 Frank Mir +136 I'd bet Mir at pick'em let alone +136, but I think with hype his odds will inflate we'll see(quoting BigLebowski)Hmm...I had the exact opposite thought process. Yes, Arlovski or Cro Cop could KO him, but once he got either one of them to the ground it is over. With his size he could easily bull rush either one of these guys and take them down without taking any punishment. They are both on the very light side of heavyweight. Instead, Lesnar gets someone he shouldn't be too excited about being on top of. Even an out of shape Mir is going to have the best JJ skills of any heavyweight. Cro Cop and Arlovski are really one trick ponies even though Arlovski has a little ground game, but a dedicated Mir poses a bigger danger in my opinion. I agree with that sir Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 This is where I'm definitely weak- who bets when? Does internet smarks bet early, and then fanboys bet a day or two before when they get to Vegas? (Does this differ for Vegas shows vs. Columbus/England shows?) It would help to try to be able to predict how the lines would go.Right now I like all three favorites for UFC 80. If someone held a gun to my head and said that I have to bet an underdog I'd torn between Rivera and Werdum...I'm leaning toward Werdum because I think he's overrated after the head kick of death to Cro Cop, but really I don't think any of the underdogs are worth a bet, and the lines are too high on the favorites to really warrant a bet. I'll probably sit this one out.As for Ultimate Fight Night - if anyone cares I think Cote's a good bet, wouldn't bet on Diaz vs. Robinson, and *may* find some value in Burkman as the underdog against Mike Swick.I'm sticking with Lesnar over Mir. Mir's dangerous, but I think Lesnar's had plenty of time to train to avoid submissions. One reason Mir is a good fight for him is that he really only needs to train his sub defense - he doesn't really have to worry too much about striking.---------------------------------On an unrelated note, I was looking at Lesnar's Wiki to see where he was training and they had 90 references listed. I just sent an article off for peer review in an academic journal and didn't have 90 references...ponderous.---------------------------------Betting on another fight:Kimbo Slice -330Tank Abbott +280Nope...still no value in the underdog here. Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted January 6, 2008 Share Posted January 6, 2008 Right now I like all three favorites for UFC 80. If someone held a gun to my head and said that I have to bet an underdog I'd torn between Rivera and Werdum...I'm leaning toward Werdum because I think he's overrated after the head kick of death to Cro Cop, but really I don't think any of the underdogs are worth a bet, and the lines are too high on the favorites to really warrant a bet. I'll probably sit this one out.As for Ultimate Fight Night - if anyone cares I think Cote's a good bet, wouldn't bet on Diaz vs. Robinson, and *may* find some value in Burkman as the underdog against Mike Swick.I'm sticking with Lesnar over Mir. Mir's dangerous, but I think Lesnar's had plenty of time to train to avoid submissions. One reason Mir is a good fight for him is that he really only needs to train his sub defense - he doesn't really have to worry too much about striking.Betting on another fight:Kimbo Slice -330Tank Abbott +280Nope...still no value in the underdog here.Agree with 90% of this. I think a play on Diaz is OK. And this!!!!!the news comes out that undefeated UFC light heavyweight Lyoto Machida (12-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) has been offered a fight with former UFC champ Tito Ortiz (15-5-1 MMA, 14-5-1 UFC).Ed Soares, the manager for Machida, today told MMAWeekly.com that his fighter had been offered a fight with Ortiz — yes, they’ve accepted — and that they’re simply awaiting word on whether Ortiz has accepted the fight.This could be a goldmine in favor of Machida. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Did you guys see this fight from K1 on New Years? I have never seen such a large asian man fight before. It's kind of incredible. I won't spoil the fight - but wow..http://myvideofight.com/video/k-1/k-1-2007...choi/index.html Link to post Share on other sites
Influcted 0 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Yes, Hong Man Choi. A known K-1 fighter. I believe he is 2.18m. If he receives better training he'll defeat Sem Schilt. Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Yes, Hong Man Choi. A known K-1 fighter. I believe he is 2.18m. If he receives better training he'll defeat Sem Schilt.It's amazing to me that at his size he actually has some technique. He could be a force someday if someone figured out how to train guys that size properly. Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 I figured I'd throw down my UFC bets for this weekend before I blow it on the football games.Hoping it will be the night of the underdog. I have no doubt they are all live. (432) Frank Mir +140 Feb 02/08@11:30pCompetitor: (431) Brock LesnarRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 14.00(429) Nate Diaz -150 Jan 23/08@9:00pCompetitor: (430) Alvin RobinsonRisk US$ 20.00 to win US$ 13.33 (412) Joe Stevenson +225 Jan 19/08@5:00pCompetitor: (411) BJ PennRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 22.50 (416) Jorge Rivera +300 Jan 19/08@3:00pCompetitor: (415) Kendall GroveRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 30.00 (414) Fabricio Werdum +215 Jan 19/08@3:00pCompetitor: (413) Gabriel GonzagaRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 21.50 Oh, and curse Bodog live betting. I thought all Schedule A drugs were outlawed? BLB has to be on there somewhere. I watched Braveheart again last night and it must have inspired the little person in me because I just bet all four dogs for the NFL this weekend. When's the last time you saw four playoff lines with the tightest one +8. I like em all. Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 8, 2008 Share Posted January 8, 2008 I'm really struggling with these. I'm thinking about putting one bet down on each of the underdogs on the next card - if just one of them comes through and wins I'll break even, if two of them come through I'll have a really strong night. I'm fully convinced one of the underdogs will win, and if I get lucky maybe two will pull it out. Like Lebowski said, I think they're all very much live. I'm going to skip the Diaz vs. Robinson fight, and bet on Lesnar instead of Mir. Link to post Share on other sites
grocery_mony 8 Posted January 8, 2008 Share Posted January 8, 2008 I'm really struggling with these. I'm thinking about putting one bet down on each of the underdogs on the next card - if just one of them comes through and wins I'll break even, if two of them come through I'll have a really strong night. I'm fully convinced one of the underdogs will win, and if I get lucky maybe two will pull it out. Like Lebowski said, I think they're all very much live. I'm going to skip the Diaz vs. Robinson fight, and bet on Lesnar instead of Mir.I cant see Gonzaga losing that fight. Penn will most likely win also but I dont mind the value in Stephenson. I deffinatly wont bet the Lesnar fight. To many hyped fighters have been losing in there octagon debuts. A wrestler of his pedigree always has a good shot but I want to see him fight before I come to any conclusions. Link to post Share on other sites
Influcted 0 Posted January 8, 2008 Share Posted January 8, 2008 Don't count out Stevenson, he's a very slick submission fighter. Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 8, 2008 Share Posted January 8, 2008 I cant see Gonzaga losing that fight. Penn will most likely win also but I dont mind the value in Stephenson.I'm not sure about Gonzaga. I'm fairly sure he's the favorite, but I'm amazed at how vulnerable he was in the clinch 5 years ago in the first fight with Werdum, and how vulnerable he was in the clinch 6 months ago with a much smaller Randy Couture. The underdogs are all underdogs for a reason, but I'm leaning toward there being much more value in betting them than betting the favorites.I deffinatly wont bet the Lesnar fight. To many hyped fighters have been losing in there octagon debuts. A wrestler of his pedigree always has a good shot but I want to see him fight before I come to any conclusions.Between his pedigree and his size I think he's the heavy favorite...really looking forward to the fight. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted January 8, 2008 Share Posted January 8, 2008 I'm really struggling with these. I'm thinking about putting one bet down on each of the underdogs on the next card - if just one of them comes through and wins I'll break even, if two of them come through I'll have a really strong night. I'm fully convinced one of the underdogs will win, and if I get lucky maybe two will pull it out. Like Lebowski said, I think they're all very much live. I'm going to skip the Diaz vs. Robinson fight, and bet on Lesnar instead of Mir.With those odds it's kind of like betting on all of the 12 seeds in the first round of the NCAA tournament...at least one of em always pulls it out. Link to post Share on other sites
steve7stud 0 Posted January 10, 2008 Share Posted January 10, 2008 I'll give some quick thoughts.First, I think we should keep all betting lines in this thread. I know it's hard to believe, but I am a mod too, lol.Second, this next fight is once again tough to bet. They're catching on to us. The favorites really are favorites for the most part, and I don't like the odds.Serra vs. GSP. I like Serra and think he is a great guy, great coach, and great story. But I don't see the value in betting him. I honestly don't believe that HE thinks he can win again. Obv I could be wrong.That's it for now. Link to post Share on other sites
grocery_mony 8 Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 I'll give some quick thoughts.First, I think we should keep all betting lines in this thread. I know it's hard to believe, but I am a mod too, lol.Second, this next fight is once again tough to bet. They're catching on to us. The favorites really are favorites for the most part, and I don't like the odds.Serra vs. GSP. I like Serra and think he is a great guy, great coach, and great story. But I don't see the value in betting him. I honestly don't believe that HE thinks he can win again. Obv I could be wrong.That's it for now.I think your right. Before the Hughes/GSP fight Serra said he never thought he would root for Hughes but he was against GSP. Ive heard Serra on extended interviews on the Bubba the Love Sponge show and he seems like a real cool guy. but I think he loses to GSP 9 times out of 10. I just hope that if he does lose to GSP Hughes sticks around for a Serra fight as a swan song. Link to post Share on other sites
PrtyPSux 0 Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 I've been playing in a live game recently where one of the regs used to be an MMA manager, he used to manage Chris Leben and Stevenson. fwiw he said that stevensen is going to beat BJ, the line at Venetian was +250 for him and he said that was huge value, granted the dude was his manager and might be making an emotional bet, here are some of the arguments he made:-Stevenson's BJJ is just as good, if not better than BJ's (I find this hard to believe) ...he did admit that BJ was a better striker but he said that it is very unlikely that the fight stays standing for too long.-Stevenson's conditioning is way better than BJ's and the fight is 5 rounds, so if it goes to round 3 he thinks bj is a huge dog-BJ looked bad in his last fight against whats his face (pulver?)I dunno, I still think betting that fight at +220 for stevenson is very marginal....just wanted to post what that guy said to see what you guys thought. Link to post Share on other sites
steve7stud 0 Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 I've been playing in a live game recently where one of the regs used to be an MMA manager, he used to manage Chris Leben and Stevenson. fwiw he said that stevensen is going to beat BJ, the line at Venetian was +250 for him and he said that was huge value, granted the dude was his manager and might be making an emotional bet, here are some of the arguments he made:-Stevenson's BJJ is just as good, if not better than BJ's (I find this hard to believe) ...he did admit that BJ was a better striker but he said that it is very unlikely that the fight stays standing for too long.-Stevenson's conditioning is way better than BJ's and the fight is 5 rounds, so if it goes to round 3 he thinks bj is a huge dog-BJ looked bad in his last fight against whats his face (pulver?)I dunno, I still think betting that fight at +220 for stevenson is very marginal....just wanted to post what that guy said to see what you guys thought.I've actually been thinking about this fight.Stevenson's BJJ is not as good as Penn's, but he might be able to neutralize the bjj situation. Stand up goes to Penn.The x factor is the fact that it's a five round fight. Penn's cardio is always suspect.One of the reasons that I believe that I have an edge in mma handicapping is because I constantly look for how someone can win a fight. I'm not sure how I see Stevenson winning this unless Penn gasses. Ironically, because BJ is not a great 5 round fighter, there is value in betting Stevenson...... Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted January 11, 2008 Share Posted January 11, 2008 FWIW, my thoughts paralled the guy in JC's home game and that is why I put a small bet on Stevenson. I see no way Joedaddy wins this in rounds 1-3. If he is active enough to keep BJ moving I think he has the distinct advantage in rounds 4 and 5. We haven't seen much of Joedaddy's standup, but he did put Guillard on his ass before finishing him. He's still at +225 on bodog which is the best I have seen and that puts him at 30% to win. I like it.I think Joedaddy doesn't get enough credit in a very deep division so I am looking forward to see where he is at. The only way I will be surprised by any outcome in this fight is if Joe wins in rounds 1 or 2 barring any injuries. Oh, and to say Joe's BJJ is in the same zip code as Penn's is just asinine. Penn wasn't given the name "prodigy" by the Brazilians because of his intellect. Mir is down to +125 after starting at +160 too. Lots of action against Lesnar on that one so far. Link to post Share on other sites
gatortom64 1 Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 The following are the latest online betting odds for this Saturday's UFC 80 "Rapid Fire" event in the UK. The numbers come from betting site Sportsbook.com: B.J. Penn (-290) vs. Joe Stevenson (+235) Gabriel Gonzaga (-325) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+250) Marcus Davis (-350) vs. Jess Liaudin (+275) Kendall Grove (-350) vs. Jorge Rivera (+250) Wilson Gouveia (-145) vs. Jason Lambert (+155) Link to post Share on other sites
KDawgCometh 2 Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 The following are the latest online betting odds for this Saturday's UFC 80 "Rapid Fire" event in the UK. The numbers come from betting site Sportsbook.com: B.J. Penn (-290) vs. Joe Stevenson (+235) Gabriel Gonzaga (-325) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+250) Marcus Davis (-350) vs. Jess Liaudin (+275) Kendall Grove (-350) vs. Jorge Rivera (+250) Wilson Gouveia (-145) vs. Jason Lambert (+155)bet this line obscenely hard Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 bet this line obscenely hardreasoning?After the weigh in I put more money on Eklund (As cut as Stout looks I think Eklund's strength and better ground game will decide this one) and Werdum (didn't like how GG looked and I think Werdum's striking will be too much) and reversed my Lambert bet with a bet on Gouveia (Gouveia has a great chin and he looked a LOT bigger than I remember him being). As much as I like Davis I made a small play on Laudin at +285. It just doesn't seem like that huge of a mismatch. BJ looked as good as I have ever seen him look, but I let my small play on Stevenson ride. I think JoeDaddy is going to be in for a rough night. The only line that moved against my original plays was the Stevenson line and that came after the BJ training show on Spike and another move after the weigh ins. Apparently there were a lot of people impressed with BJ's training this go around. Here are my final bets for the fights today.(442) Per Eklund +200 Sat@12:00pCompetitor: (441) Sam StoutRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 20.00 (442) Per Eklund +260 Sat@12:00pCompetitor: (441) Sam StoutRisk US$ 20.00 to win US$ 52.00 HAVE NO IDEA WHY I BET SAKARA...don't even remember betting this one. I wish I could have it back. (439) Alessio Sakara -135 Sat@12:00pCompetitor: (440) James LeeRisk US$ 30.00 to win US$ 22.22(437) Wilson Gouveia -145 Sat@3:00pCompetitor: (438) Jason LambertRisk US$ 40.00 to win US$ 27.59 (436) Jess Liaudin +285 Sat@3:00pCompetitor: (435) Marcus DavisRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 28.50 (438) Jason Lambert +115 Sat@3:00pCompetitor: (437) Wilson GouveiaRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 11.50 (444) Colin Robinson +265 Sat@12:00pCompetitor: (443) Antonio HardonkRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 26.50 (412) Joe Stevenson +225 Sat@5:00pCompetitor: (411) BJ PennRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 22.50 (416) Jorge Rivera +300 Sat@3:00pCompetitor: (415) Kendall GroveRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 30.00 (414) Fabricio Werdum +200 Sat@3:00pCompetitor: (413) Gabriel GonzagaRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 20.00 (414) Fabricio Werdum +215 Sat@3:00pCompetitor: (413) Gabriel GonzagaRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 21.50 NFL bets(305) New York Giants vs. (306) Green Bay Packers Over 40½ (-105) Sun@6:30p(306) Green Bay Packers -7½ (-105) Sun@6:30pCompetitor: (305) New York GiantsRisk US$ 5.00 to win US$ 14.06 (306) Green Bay Packers -7½ (-105) Sun@6:30pCompetitor: (305) New York GiantsRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 9.52 (303) San Diego Chargers +14 (-115) Sun@3:00pCompetitor: (304) New England PatriotsRisk US$ 10.00 to win US$ 8.70UFCrisking $170 to win $282.31 (but can't win all of them because of the both side betting in one of them)NFLrisking $25 to win $32.28 Link to post Share on other sites
gatortom64 1 Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 The following are the latest online betting odds for this Saturday's UFC 80 "Rapid Fire" event in the UK. The numbers come from betting site Sportsbook.com: B.J. Penn (-290) vs. Joe Stevenson (+235) Gabriel Gonzaga (-325) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+250) Marcus Davis (-350) vs. Jess Liaudin (+275) Kendall Grove (-350) vs. Jorge Rivera (+250) Wilson Gouveia (-145) vs. Jason Lambert (+155)I just thought someone might wantr to see these. I have no idea how they work. Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 ****SPOILERS BELOW**** Holy shit was this a good day to bet on the underdogs...I bet $50 each on Werdum, Stevenson, and Rivera. Life is good. Link to post Share on other sites
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