**official Mma Thread**

[ol'number7 0]

here some spreads from Pinnacle SportsUFC 79 - Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Light Heavyweights Sat 12/29 Chuck Liddell vs Wanderlei Silva 07:00 PM 3 Chuck Liddell +111 4 Wanderlei Silva -121 Sat 12/29 Lyoto Machida vs Rameau Sokoudjou 07:00 PM 5 Lyoto Machida -129 6 Rameau Sokoudjou +119 UFC 79 - Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Lightweights Sat 12/29 Melvin Guillard vs Rich Clementi 07:00 PM 201 Melvin Guillard -211 202 Rich Clementi +191 UFC 79 - Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Welterweights Sat 12/29 Georges St-Pierre vs Matt Hughes 08:00 PM 1 Georges St-Pierre -231 2 Matt Hughes +211 I think I would bet every dog here, they all are very live

[SpiderGuard 0]

I think you have to bet Hughes and Clementi at those lines. I can't believe that Matt Hughes is a 2:1 dog to St. Pierre when they split the two previous fights. I'll sound like a broken record, but unless I'm completely missing something, I would think Clementi's a favorite in this fight. Right now I think I'm going to bet $25 each on Clementi, Sokoudjou, and Hughes. Silva/Liddell is too close to call for me...if I was going live I think I'd bet on Liddell just because he'll be the crowd favorite and it's more fun to be cheering for the guy everyone else is cheering for - especially with the reaction I have to think Liddell's going to get.

[PrtyPSux 0]

I'll probably bet huge on Clementi at those odds if they're still like that when I go bet at Mandalay and a decent amount on Soku....In fact, the more I think about it the more I think most of my money will go on the undercard fights and very small part of it in the two main fights, they're too swingy...Is there any way to get my bet back from bodog? lol I feel ripped off seeing hughes at +200

[SpiderGuard 0]

I'll probably bet huge on Clementi at those odds if they're still like that when I go bet at Mandalay and a decent amount on Soku....In fact, the more I think about it the more I think most of my money will go on the undercard fights and very small part of it in the two main fights, they're too swingy...Is there any way to get my bet back from bodog? lol I feel ripped off seeing hughes at +200

Probably the smart way to go - I don't know that I'm really confident in either of the mains.I'm shocked the money line went in that direction - I really thought you were getting a good value at 160. You can thank ol'number7 for bringing that to your attention

[PrtyPSux 0]

Probably the smart way to go - I don't know that I'm really confident in either of the mains.I'm shocked the money line went in that direction - I really thought you were getting a good value at 160. You can thank ol'number7 for bringing that to your attention

yea I coulda sworn the lines would have Hughes as a fav at some point...maybe they still will, but +200 is pretty sick for now.

[SpiderGuard 0]

yea I coulda sworn the lines would have Hughes as a fav at some point...maybe they still will, but +200 is pretty sick for now.

It's really starting to make me feel like there's something I'm just missing here. Why is the money going in the exact opposite direction of where we think it should?I don't think Hughes is that much of a dog in this fight...maybe if Steve can convince me to change my bet I'll give him a poker lesson or two

[steve7stud 0]

It's really starting to make me feel like there's something I'm just missing here. Why is the money going in the exact opposite direction of where we think it should?I don't think Hughes is that much of a dog in this fight...maybe if Steve can convince me to change my bet I'll give him a poker lesson or two

I'm surprised that Hughes is such a big dog right now. But we have to consider a few things. Styles make fights. Kos is a MUCH better wrestler than Hughes.........so what is it exactly that Hughes is bringing to the table in this fight. I have been a long time supporter of Matt Hughes, but I just don't see him doing anything in this one. It's not a case of "I told you so". I hope if you guys bet on Hughes you do well. Couple of things to consider when looking at this fight. Hughes won the first match because he caught a nervous St Pierre in an arm bar. In the second fight, St Pierre, literally demolished Hughes. Two totally different fights for sure.A friend of mine who is excellent at handicapping these fights essentially said that he would take St Pierre at just about any price. And he also feels that Vanderlei Silva will win. He believes that come fight time, it will be about even for Chuck and Vanderlei as far as betting lines go, or close enough. I went on to explan that I saw Vanderlei and he looked horrible. In addition, Pride fighters have not done well in the UFC. This fight is much closer imo. Hence the odds.In a lot of ways, these fights are almost like flipping a coin. I still am grateful that I found out that Machida beat Penn and Franklin. I don't care how long ago that was. That is very important info. I only hope that come fight day I make the correct decisions. One thing is for sure, I certainly am preparing myself to the best of my ability.........and I continue to appreciate all additions to this thread.Random thought.......Franklin vs. Silva. I was prepared to bet Franklin. For some reason I was convinced that Frank would win. A friend of mine watched the previous tape and said the guy got killed.........what has changed? If you watch the next fight, nothing really changed. Once you completely dominate someone, it is very difficult to come back from that kind of loss. Hughes was dominated. I only wish that the general public and Vegas didn't get to see it, because they are screwing up my action.

[SpiderGuard 0]

This is the point I get confused on though -

I'm surprised that Hughes is such a big dog right now. But we have to consider a few things. Styles make fights. Kos is a MUCH better wrestler than Hughes.........so what is it exactly that Hughes is bringing to the table in this fight. I have been a long time supporter of Matt Hughes, but I just don't see him doing anything in this one. It's not a case of "I told you so". I hope if you guys bet on Hughes you do well.

In no way is St. Pierre a better wrestler than Koscheck, but he completely dominated him in the clinch and on the ground. How did that happen? Same way that Serra outstruck St. Pierre in their fight - he's not a better striker than St. Pierre, it just happened to be his day. I guess I can't convince myself that St. Pierre can stop Matt Hughes from taking him down. I may be way off on that one, but I have to think Hughes is going to take St. Pierre down and GnP him to death. The more I think about it though, the more I think that Steve's probably right...----------------------------------------------Steve - have you seen Wanderlei vs. Cro Cop and then Wanderlei vs. Henderson? I get that Wandy can't outstrike Cro Cop, but not being able to outstrike Henderson really worries me in his chances against Chuck. Plus Chuck has shown the ability to recover after a loss. His performances against Couture after getting completely dominated the first time were super impressive to me. On the other hand, Wanderlei hasn't really had to deal with losing until his last two fights. It looks like his chin might be shot, and his confidence might be shot.Not to get too far in the MMAth, but common opponents for Chuck and Wanderlei:Wandy > Rampage twiceChuck < Rampage twiceChuck > Tito Ortiz and Vitor BelfortWandy < Tito Ortiz and Vitor Belfort (many moons ago)In Wandy's favor - Rampage is a closer parallel to Chuck than Tito or Vitor are to Wandy. Beating Rampage twice in convincing fashion is impressive, and Rampage has shown no real vulnerability to Chuck in the cage.

[BigLebowski 0]

I guess I can't convince myself that St. Pierre can stop Matt Hughes from taking him down. I may be way off on that one, but I have to think Hughes is going to take St. Pierre down and GnP him to death. The more I think about it though, the more I think that Steve's probably right...

A writer with MMAweekly seems to disagree with you here.short GSP Training Article"Of note, not one fighter (including Evans) was able to take down St-Pierre and it definitely wasn’t because of a lack of effort. On the other hand, it looked as though St-Pierre took everyone down almost at will with probably a 95% success ratio."GSP pretty much dismantled Hughes in their last fight and was pretty much killing him the first time as well. Unless GSP makes a huge mistake I just don't see this going any different than GSP/Hughes II. Hughes has not shown me anything in his last 3 fights that would prove otherwise.I get a bad feeling someone somewhere knows something we don't about the Clementi/Guillard fight.

[SpiderGuard 0]

A writer with MMAweekly seems to disagree with you here.short GSP Training Article"Of note, not one fighter (including Evans) was able to take down St-Pierre and it definitely wasn’t because of a lack of effort. On the other hand, it looked as though St-Pierre took everyone down almost at will with probably a 95% success ratio."GSP pretty much dismantled Hughes in their last fight and was pretty much killing him the first time as well. Unless GSP makes a huge mistake I just don't see this going any different than GSP/Hughes II. Hughes has not shown me anything in his last 3 fights that would prove otherwise.

SHOCKING that in a public workout St. Pierre looked strong

I get a bad feeling someone somewhere knows something we don't about the Clementi/Guillard fight.

+1...this one seems fairly close to a no-brainer to me, not sure why everyone else feels the same way but in the opposite direction.Why is Melvin Guillard back in the UFC anyway? Maybe the answer to that helps with the answer to the other question.Edit: I stumbled on a piece of information I didn't know, which explains his absence - he was suspended by the NSAC for cocaine use back in April.........................................http://www.sherdog.com/news/news.asp?n_id=7506He's training with Team Punishment, which means his wrestling is probably greatly improved...I'unno.On the other hand, looking through Clementi's record his only recent losses have been to strong fighters - Carneiro, Din Thomas, Caol Uno...any reason at all to think Clementi loses this fight?------------------

In a lot of ways, these fights are almost like flipping a coin. I still am grateful that I found out that Machida beat Penn and Franklin. I don't care how long ago that was. That is very important info.

Keep in mind that Franklin was never a top 205 pounder, and Penn is a top 155 pounder.------------------On another note, I'm enjoying this thread very much. I very much enjoy being pushed on my opinions/predictions because it makes me think through them in different ways and with new interesting information.

[BigLebowski 0]

SHOCKING that in a public workout St. Pierre looked strong

yeah, yeah, I know. But i still agree with him 110%. It's been a while since I saw the first fight, but has Hughes ever taken GSP down?

Edit: I stumbled on a piece of information I didn't know, which explains his absence - he was suspended by the NSAC for cocaine use back in April......

yeah, old news. Think he is only one of two people ever to be suspended for the nose candy which is actually a bit shocking . With most of these fights being in Vegas and a lot of the fighters training there you would think it would be more prevalent.

He's training with Team Punishment, which means his wrestling is probably greatly improved...I'unno.

He was a state wrestling champ in Lou-e-see-anna during high school and was on the Junior National team. Not to say he can't get any better, but he has a pretty darn good base to start from.

On the other hand, looking through Clementi's record his only recent losses have been to strong fighters - Carneiro, Din Thomas, Caol Uno...any reason at all to think Clementi loses this fight?

Exactly, these guys are all pretty well rounded, but most of all they are all BJJ/submission aces. Unless Guillard has worked on his BJJ diligently I still give the edge to Clementi on the ground, especially if he is on top. And yes, this is for the most part street fighting so anyone has a punchers chance. At +200 or around there I think it is too good to pass up.

[PrtyPSux 0]

interesting insight from someone over at 2+2:

Chuck / Wandy going the distance at 5dimes... +330.Chuck... a counter puncher (that showed vs. Jardine that he doesn't have any other standup style) vs. Wandy... a guy that's been knocked out in his last two fights? (equals: cautious)Look at the KO's for Wandy. Hendo is a more aggressive fighter than Chuck, and that fight made it to the 17th minute.... Mirko did Wandy in 5 minutes, but Mirko is a heavyweight, his kicks are waaay harder than any Liddell punch... and Liddell rarely throws kicks... reducing the amount of threats Wandy has to worry about.Personally, I don't know if there's any real value in the Chuck/Wandy line. But I see TONS of value in this little beauty. I'd say the real chances of this going the distance is somewhere around 50/50. 40% at the worst.

[grocery_mony 8]

interesting insight from someone over at 2+2:

Yea I agree with a bet like this rather than a coin flip on the winner. Chuck looked so brutal against Jardine that I would have a hard time betting him. And I havent seen enough of Silva to have an opinion on how well he would do against an opponent like Chuck especially with with the record of Pride guys in there first octagon matches. Is there any sites online out there that offer these sort of props?

[PrtyPSux 0]

Here's a Teleconference I found....After hearing this, and the tone, I like GSP WAAAY more than Hughes, but I think hughes has a shot still. Also I like what Chuck had to say, sounds like he's back to being the focused iceman he was in 06..edit link..http://mrsunshinevegas.wordpress.com/2007/...ele-conference/

[BigLebowski 0]

missed linkage JC?The only reason I wouldn't like the distance bet is because once either of these guys smell blood they pounce HARD. At +330 though it is tough to go wrong.

[PrtyPSux 0]

missed linkage JC?The only reason I wouldn't like the distance bet is because once either of these guys smell blood they pounce HARD. At +330 though it is tough to go wrong.

fixed...sorry.

[PrtyPSux 0]

Anyone who hasn't seen Fedor vs. Randleman should check it out. Hit me up with a PM if you can't find it somewhere on the internet.

sickest suplex ever? How does Fedor not die? best thing about the fight though was Rampage as the co-commentator.

[SpiderGuard 0]

sickest suplex ever? How does Fedor not die? best thing about the fight though was Rampage as the co-commentator.

Not only does Fedor not die, but he ends up submitting Rampage about 30 seconds later. Absolutely amazing.Rampage is great on commentary - I forget which fight it was (one of Fedor's...or maybe Cro Cop) but Mauro Ranallo accidentally calls him Kevin Randleman, and Rampage goes on about how it's ok because all black people look alike and how he has to sign a bunch of autographs for Japanese fans as Gilbert Yvel.

[Vick12 0]

Not only does Fedor not die, but he ends up submitting Rampage about 30 seconds later. Absolutely amazing.Rampage is great on commentary - I forget which fight it was (one of Fedor's...or maybe Cro Cop) but Mauro Ranallo accidentally calls him Kevin Randleman, and Rampage goes on about how it's ok because all black people look alike and how he has to sign a bunch of autographs for Japanese fans as Gilbert Yvel.

Do people still think all black people look alike?

[SpiderGuard 0]

LOL...well played sir.

[BigLebowski 0]

Not only does Fedor not die, but he ends up submitting Rampage about 30 seconds later. Absolutely amazing.Rampage is great on commentary - I forget which fight it was (one of Fedor's...or maybe Cro Cop) but Mauro Ranallo accidentally calls him Kevin Randleman, and Rampage goes on about how it's ok because all black people look alike and how he has to sign a bunch of autographs for Japanese fans as Gilbert Yvel.

I meant to make a comment on this one. It seriously looked like Fedor was toying with the guy and after the bestsuplexofalltime, Fedor basically said to himself "OK, I have had enough of this guy" and made the submission look as easy as apple pie. The only way he survives being dropped on his head with his ear touching his neck is to be completely and totally relaxed. People like Fedor scare me because they look like they are stoned on blueberry kush 100% of time, but are quite the opposite.

[BigLebowski 0]

Do people still think all black people look alike?

Actually, Asians and Hispanics are the new black in regards to that. Brown is the new pink too.Wait.....what?

[Vick12 0]

LOL...well played sir.

tyvm

I meant to make a comment on this one. It seriously looked like Fedor was toying with the guy and after the bestsuplexofalltime, Fedor basically said to himself "OK, I have had enough of this guy" and made the submission look as easy as apple pie. The only way he survives being dropped on his head with his ear touching his neck is to be completely and totally relaxed. People like Fedor scare me because they look like they are stoned on blueberry kush 100% of time, but are quite the opposite.

That was likely the best suplex ever, but it is definately not the best slam ever...See Rampage Powerbombing Ricardo Arona obv!And the submission definately had the "oh hai der...I see an arm...lemme just...SNAPPPPPPPPPPPPPP!" easy as pie feel to it.

[SpiderGuard 0]

That was likely the best suplex ever, but it is definately not the best slam ever...See Rampage Powerbombing Ricardo Arona obv!And the submission definately had the "oh hai der...I see an arm...lemme just...SNAPPPPPPPPPPPPPP!" easy as pie feel to it.

Definitely the most brutal suplex ever. The two coolest were Severn vs. Macias from...UFC 5 maybe? And then the one from the WEC. It really was amazing how quickly and easily Fedor puts on that keylock. Takes about half a second to shake off the cobwebs from that slam, and then goes right to work. That's when the world realized he's not human

[steve7stud 0]

I have some new thoughts about the Lidell vs Silva fight.I just realized that Chuck does great against guys who come out fast and furious, because Chuck is a counter striker. All of the guys from Chute Box, Silva especially have been known to do that. Now the x factor is Silva training with Couture. If Silva plays more of a waiting game, and fights a different style, this could be a tougher fight. But, if we see the old Vanderlei, I still like Chuck to win.Does anyone have a link to the fights with Silva vs Cro Cop, and Silva vs Henderson. I actually haven't seen those, and would like to. Thanks.