**official Mma Thread**

[AmScray 355]

You underestimate smart people. There's not as big a division between Quant/Qual as you think. Most people I know would suggest I'm a quant, but I'm also good with words and feelings. My best friend got his masters in Analytics. Neither of us is a ****ing faggot. We both watch sports like normal people.

 

You're hostile to Quants. I get the impression you believe quantitative analysis is juvenile, or... limited? Like, sure, quants can know some things, but QUALS understand the mystery of the universe and universal truth and truth as more than just a concept and conceptual... whatever.

 

Sorry, I'm being kind of dramatic and hyperbolic. I'm pretty drunk. I guess what I'm trying to say is, you are drawing lines that don't need to be drawn. Quants are not computer programs. Quants are not spreadsheets or collections of data. Quants are people that, for the most part, interpret the world in a small-packet data-driven way.

 

The guys who beat hoops and football aren't going to look at MMA and be like, "DURRRRRR MATH IS MATH AND EVERYTHING TRANSLATES DURRRRRRRRRPSI." They're going to be skeptics and scientists, and they're going to be ruthlessly hungry for data, but not blinded by it. They're going to be people who understand how to blend all sorts of analysis and draw rational conclusions.

 

Basically, what I mean to say is, if you honestly believe the thing you're smart about is impervious to other intelligence, you're deluded. Maybe you're good enough to beat MMA right now. Maybe. If you are, you won't be able to use the same tools to beat the game going forward unless you're the only person in possession of that knowledge.

 

We have to distinguish legitimately outlying 'smart people' from ordinary 'people in the game' who may be 'smart' relatively speaking but otherwise unexceptional. Legitimately smart people will always do their thing but the term 'smart' itself has been dilluted to nothing.

 

There are a lot of 'people in the game' who play their 'best practices' hand just like all the other idiots wearing the same tie and cufflinks. They are serious about whatever it is that they do, they're usually of generally above average intelligence compared to John Q but when it comes to developing any sort of proprietary insight, any sort of novel analysis, any sort of knowledge-depth beyond regurgitating the quarterly report and biasing that against whatever stupid-obvious Y Factor everyone else is incanting, they're just another schmuck in line with the same spreadsheet everyone else has.

 

The people mocked by Andrew Ladhe.

 

Quantitative and qualitative intelligence types usually exist independant of each other, but not always. You see them blend at lower levels in successful small businesses. Arab stores sell loosies because they understand both the margin-math and the consuming patterns of their customers. When quant/qual conflates at a mutually high level, that's pretty rare. Warren Buffett, Steve Jobs kind of rare (both who leveraged their extreme quantitative intelligence to exploit qualitative opportunities or develop 'quant products' with 'qual insights'). Ivey is that way too. Jack shit for formal education but all evidence- even exclusive of his poker results- indicates significant raw cognitive horsepower/hugely high IQ but that isn't what makes him him. If it were, David Sklansky or Paul Magriel would be the Ivey.

 

I've beaten MMA since MMA has had lines so it isn't a matter of 'maybe' I beat MMA. There's a pretty long track record of way more good decisions than bad (Silvas leg flying off notwithstanding) and no losing years, including this one even with Silva. If there's a braintrust due to descend on MMA betting and spook me off my game, they've had plenty of time to show up but I'm pretty sure I know why they haven't. A lifetime of observing 'those kind of people' and their very obvious strengths and even more obvious weaknesses is what I base that conclusion on.

 

And yes. They are blinded by metrics. They always have been, they always are, they always will be.

[king_tanner 84]

Wow... Cruz out... Faber in. I think Faber deserves the fight although he has lost way too many championship bouts, but I just wish he'd get more than 3 weeks to prepare for it.

[AmScray 355]

They should have a one year rule for all belt holders.

No defenses in one year = automatic strip.

 

I like Cruz, he's still young, he can definitely get healthy and eventually take it back but his last fight was OVER TWO YEARS AGO.

BW has been in a holding pattern for two years because of him. Absurd. Hope they learn from this and institute a rule of some kind that doesn't allow people to hold titles for years without a single defense.

 

As far as Faber goes, the only fights hes ever lost have been title fights and he seems to be hitting a peak (which smaller guys often do later than bigger guys). I don't see him beatnig Barao but I'm not betting on that fight.

 

Very torn on what to do with Rockold v Philippou with Costa @ +300.

[king_tanner 84]

Even before Cruz's recent injury I'm pretty sure people viewed Barao as the champion and not Cruz even though technically it was Cruz's belt

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

Werdum vs Browne and Tate vs Carmouche, in ORLANDO. April 19th. UFC on FOX 11 Tickets on sale Valentine's Day.

 

I want to see prices. It's likely I'll be attending my first UFC event. Unfortunately, I'll be paying a ton to see "free fights"

[AmScray 355]

I went to Fox 6 Johnson v Dodson at the United.

 

לעולם לא עוד.

 

You think fight night at the bar is bad? Live, many times worse. Go with a group and be prepared to kill everyone in sight.

Orlando is such shitbag city. I cannot even imagine what a UFC event there would look like (and this coming from a guy who attended one in Chicago).

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

What's wrong with Orlando?

 

Where'd you sit and what kind of ticket prices?

[king_tanner 84]

I really really want to bet on Phillipou but Rockhold is from the same town as me and I feel bad!!!

[grocery_mony 8]

Werdum vs Browne and Tate vs Carmouche, in ORLANDO. April 19th. UFC on FOX 11 Tickets on sale Valentine's Day.

 

I want to see prices. It's likely I'll be attending my first UFC event. Unfortunately, I'll be paying a ton to see "free fights"

I went to a event in Vancouver a couple years ago. What you really notice live is just how fast these guys are. If I would do it again I would either go ringgside if I can afford it(youll have to pay the $100 or so to get access to the presale through a fightclub membership) or get the best cheap seast possible. The in between stuff is a rip off

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

Good advice. I'll take it. But I definitely ain't paying $100 for the privilege of paying $300 for a close up ticket.

 

Read that cagesides were going for $350'for Hendricks v Lawler. Face value, not sure how secondary markets work. To get those million dollar gates, someone is paying a couple thousand for tickets somewhere

[king_tanner 84]

Good advice. I'll take it. But I definitely ain't paying $100 for the privilege of paying $300 for a close up ticket.

 

Read that cagesides were going for $350'for Hendricks v Lawler. Face value, not sure how secondary markets work. To get those million dollar gates, someone is paying a couple thousand for tickets somewhere

 

I'd be surprised if that was accurate. $350 sounds like ringside for a Bellator event. I could be wrong though.

 

At the last ufc event in San Jose $350 would get you probably a lower upper deck seat

[mrfritz 885]

obv take pics if you go and post them in mma thread. i'd love to go to a live fight someday.

[AmScray 355]

What's wrong with Orlando?

 

Where'd you sit and what kind of ticket prices?

 

Orlando is just Orlando. It's like the worst elements of Florida are all concentrated there in their purest form.

 

I sat in the rural section with the rest of the losers. I can't imagine things were any better ringside. Strangest thing about Fox 6- about 4 rows down from me, there was this really old lady- like, in her late 60s or early 70s- there by herself, watching the fight.

 

It was the oddest thing. I watched her like a hawk to see if there wasn't a grandson or some sort of male in the picture but there wasn't. She just sat there, alone, and would occasionally cheer... at a UFC fight.... by herself... at 70.

[AmScray 355]

I really really want to bet on Phillipou but Rockhold is from the same town as me and I feel bad!!!

 

Rockhold is a very legit bad ass, HUUUUUGE MW. Anyone who has Jacare notched on their belt is scary.

Costa has been seriously underrated for about ever now.

 

Neither Rockholds loss to The $6,000,000 Belfort nor Costas D loss to a hard peaking Carmont are definitive.

Their only previous losses are bullshitty random nonsense. It's going to be a definitive fight for them both. I can totally understand why Rockhold is priced there.

 

I'm tempted, Costas boxing is underappreciated but his only test against a premier fighter was a L wheras Rockhold has been pretty seriously tested and came out ahead. Beating Tim Boetsch counts for Costa since Tim's a can crusher, but it's not anything to hang your hat on.

 

The Y factor here is that Rockhold hasn't ever faced anyone with Costas level of boxing. He's faced wrestlers and BJJ guys. It doesn't quite put it over the top for me to make a bet on, but it's very meaningful. If Rockhold can beat Costa, he's demonstrated himself against the higher level specialists out there and is going to probably be a maja playa. If he has stand-up holes, we're about to find out.

 

Also, if The Flintstones had MMA, Luke 'Rock Hold' Rockhold would fight Gary Granite for the championship and win by Rock Hold (its not funny now but come back and read it when you're high. I'm ****ing dying here.)

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

Orlando is just Orlando. It's like the worst elements of Florida are all concentrated there in their purest form.

 

I sat in the rural section with the rest of the losers. I can't imagine things were any better ringside. Strangest thing about Fox 6- about 4 rows down from me, there was this really old lady- like, in her late 60s or early 70s- there by herself, watching the fight.

 

It was the oddest thing. I watched her like a hawk to see if there wasn't a grandson or some sort of male in the picture but there wasn't. She just sat there, alone, and would occasionally cheer... at a UFC fight.... by herself... at 70.

 

Odds that she was a lesbian?

[grocery_mony 8]

Good advice. I'll take it. But I definitely ain't paying $100 for the privilege of paying $300 for a close up ticket.

 

Read that cagesides were going for $350'for Hendricks v Lawler. Face value, not sure how secondary markets work. To get those million dollar gates, someone is paying a couple thousand for tickets somewhere

Yea the only way i'd join the fight club again is if it was for a event I know was gonna be a hot ticket and I had the cash to get ringside. If your gonna go with cheap seats you might actually want to just wait tilll the day of the event when people cancel there plans. The guy beside us did just that and paid $100 for the same seats we paid $325 for. Its hard to do if your making plans specifically for the event though.

 

The Rousey ppv has $350 ringsides too. I can see it for that card but $350 for the Hendricks/Lawler card shocked me. Unless there holding back the first 20 rows for vip packages and that bullshit

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

Orlando isnt bad. I live in a town just north of it and its nice. Youngish people, good places to hang out, good bars, good weather, 35 minutes from the beaches. Central FL is a little too red state for me, but otherwise, its fun.

 

In Palm Beach (Co) where i spent the previous 30 years, its full of old people, haitians and the latino population is through the roof. I miss the proximity to the beach. Other than that, I'd like to plop my little area in Orlando smack in the middle of Palm Beach County and it would be awesome

 

If I go, I'll take pics

 

I dont wsnt to spend over $500 for one night, but I think that might be my ceiling. I want to go at least once. Going in Vegas might be better, but oh well. And I can only imagine the tool factory that the crowd will be, hut I'll keep to the people I go with.

[AmScray 355]

I wonder if any of Derek Brunsons internal organs still work.

[king_tanner 84]

Wtf at that ref?

[king_tanner 84]

It's funny how everyone at 185 calls out Bisping and everyone at 155 calls out Nate Diaz

[AmScray 355]

The UFC pushing the WWE call-outs is getting kinda dumb.

 

Like Cole Miller last night.

 

"I HAVE A MESSAGE FOR SOMEONE... SOMEONE I THINK THE CROWD KNOWS WHO I'M TALKING ABOUT (crickets chirping, nobody has a ****ing clue)... I'M TALKING TO YOU, MISTER... (Dana hands him a tophat filled with slips of paper, reaches in, draws one out, unfolds it, reads it,

looks into camera) ... DONALD CERRONE!"

 

As much as I hate betting fights where someone is going down a class- especially someone like Cerrone who would probably have to get ribs and teeth removed to make FW- Cowboy versus Cole Miller is a fight I would bet hard on at any price from slightly-unreasonable or better.

[king_tanner 84]

Isn't that normal? Boxing does it too in interviews. After the fight asking who's next.

 

I think I remember Cole Miller mouthing off like that before so I don't think that was new.

 

Most of the guys say "ill fight whoever the matchmakers give me," so I don't think calling people out is something the ufc tells guys to do. You know more than I do though

 

It looked like that arena was half empty, I wonder how much tickets were.

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

Those were pretty close to 12-6 elbows, no?

 

Romero is always too casual to start fights. 2nd time I've noticed that

[king_tanner 84]

He also shit his shorts (allegedly)

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

Romero or Brunson?