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**official Mma Thread**


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There goes about 3/4 of a years worth of winnings.

Seats - There are no good seats (unless you are ringside). We had floor seats 11 rows from the ring... pretty close and I paid quite a bit. I couldn't see shit. You can't see over other people's heads

The internet is an environment. Environments attract compatible creatures.   'Comment sections' of anything (Youtube being the best example, where the absolute lowest form of internet vermin are ap

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This is what I had picked out.

 

$T2eC16J,!w0E9szN(W19BR2G4tyf3!~~60_57.JPG

 

I was going to hit the Buy It Now after Silva won.

2 grand, but well, well worth it.

 

Now I'm budgeting Ramen bricks.

If anyone is visiting lovely Gary, Indiana during winter (the best time of year to visit the best city in America), stop on by the Majestic Star where I'll be grinding cheeseburger stakes cash games against lagtard blacks for the next few months. Say hello. Maybe pay for lunch.

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I feel like I'm going to drop a ****ing bomb on whomever the **** Anderson Silva is fighting. Chris "the all american" Weidman? That name is so ****ing gay, so taking him is going to be god damn painful.

 

****ING NAILED IT

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I kind of forgot how huge this was for you, AmScray. Losing like that has to be extra-painful, because it has to feel so flukey. I ask this out of curiosity, and not some annoying kind of celebration, but do you still feel like you had the right side? If they fought again, would you still bed Silva? Would you bet him for the same amount at the same price? I only ask, because I've taken countless beats where I've lost and thought to myself, "God damn if there were a rematch tomorrow I would bet THREE TIMES AS MUCH," and those are, paradoxically, the painful ones, despite the fact that the process was good.

 

Anyway, sorry for the beat. I've been there. Hope you come back, etc.

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I ask this out of curiosity, and not some annoying kind of celebration, but do you still feel like you had the right side? If they fought again, would you still bed Silva?

 

No, definitely not. I had the wrong side from the outset for a bet of this size. Running the same fight in a parallel universe, knowing what I know now, I would not bet it the same way again. This was age tapping Silva on the shoulder. My bet was against that and that alone. I was wrong. The only way it could be more blunt is if he fell down and broke a hip.

 

The loss itself was an insane fluke but Weidman about had him out in Round 1 and very well may have gone on to win that fight one way or another. It was not an appropriate fight to shove all in on. Siver vs Manny Gamburyian would've been a much better fight to do that. The only other time I've been in anywhere near this deep was Werdum vs Russow because it was a grotesque mismatch.

 

The other big mistake I made was I could've laid off a shitload of the Silva I had at = money and just taken the profit since the local bar line was -200 at fight time.

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Feel bad for you scram. Me and my gf were just walking into the bar when it happened and your the first thing that popped in my head.Crazy ballsy bet. I think after all the hours of grinding and playing it smart gets to us and we gotta do shit like this to keep our sanity

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Weidman is probably going to be a dog against Vitor also right?

Line just opened, he's a -225 favorite as of, opened at -200.

This brings up a intresting question for me. Has anyone here had expirience betting on a fight where a fighter won but pissed dirty? I wonder what the recourse is because theoretically you could cash out right after the event but if your on the other side of the bet You'd be pretty pissed if the book didnt reverse the outcome.

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This brings up a intresting question for me. Has anyone here had expirience betting on a fight where a fighter won but pissed dirty? I wonder what the recourse is because theoretically you could cash out right after the event but if your on the other side of the bet You'd be pretty pissed if the book didnt reverse the outcome.

 

I've lost money betting on cycling and Olympic nonsense, contests after which the winner was shown to have cheated. Every book pays once a result is posted or certified, and in every sport I've ever wagered, that happens within moments of the finish. The idea is that, on some level at least, steroid/blood doping/cheating rumors are public domain, and if everyone has equal access, it's fair game. If somebody is gaming the system, however, the books might go after big individual winners, in conjunction with the Federals.

 

I swear, my heart ****ing broke for AmScray watching that fight. The first thing I thought after "YES!!!" was, "Ah, man...." I've taken a few shots in my life, and I've been lucky to have won more than I've lost. I asked him if he thought he took a beat because, honestly, there is no worse feeling than taking a huge shot, having the right side, and still going broke. It's... just terrible. It makes you feel helpless, and you're angry and all sorts of other stuff.

 

I've also taken a shot and lost, and immediately known it was the wrong side. That's a different kind of pain, still extreme, but there's a lesson to be learned. I don't know. Tough beat, Scram. Hope you come back.

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Scram? What about me? I lost $50 and possibly my only chance to see that girl's really nice boobs on the GSP/Hendricks decision. Where's my empathy?

 

 

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It was a fine fight to 'bet big' on but not shove.

 

I'm already accustomed to the emotional challenges of knowing the next year + of your life is basically a write-off, so the idea of rebuilding isn't as overwhelming as it may be to some.

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Yep. My joke was intended to highlight that feeling sorry for you or whatever was silly. You're more than bright and were well aware of the risks. You took a calculated risk to take a shot. It ended ahittily. It happens. Sucks, but happens.

 

 

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Yeah, it blows but I was already over it before fight night ended. Outside looking in by non (or light) bettors, it may appear 'worse' than it actually is but its no different than poker, losing a huge pot and non players thinking its a bigger deal than it is. It's just how the game goes. People who get emotional over it for anything more than 60 seconds aren't cut out for it.

 

I'm not worried about clawing back to even and beyond. I think MMA betting remains profitable forever, indefinitely, for two reasons.

 

1) Dumbest fans of any sport (myself included), who in turn influence the line.

 

2) The super-mega geniuses who beat other, vastly more efficient sports are almost always lacking the much lower intelligence type of being able to watch two guys fight and make a good guess on which one's more likely to beat the other one up.

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I think MMA betting remains profitable forever, indefinitely, for two reasons.

 

1) Dumbest fans of any sport (myself included), who in turn influence the line.

 

2) The super-mega geniuses who beat other, vastly more efficient sports are almost always lacking the much lower intelligence type of being able to watch two guys fight and make a good guess on which one's more likely to beat the other one up.

 

I think you vastly underestimate the allure of money. If the lines are inefficient, and the limits are high enough, the money will come. Those super-mega geniuses who are beating NBA totals, Mountain West football, and NCAAB spreads have never had any problem wagering large sums of money on boxing, and MMA isn't much different. As the sport grows in popularity and more data becomes available, the smart money will make the lines harder and harder to exploit. Count on that.

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MMA lines have been inefficient for years, the limits are high enough for heavy hitters to jump in.For whatever reason, they haven't. They eventually may, however I have a theory (that is correct).

 

The quantitatives thrown off by team sports played over a fixed period of time have an entirely different (and more consistent) analytical complexion than what can be quantified in a fight. The qualitative element in fighting, though, is huge and is an entirely different intelligence type. The guys who are amazing at three way currency arbs are never (full stop, period, never) good at realizing that Coke is better than Pepsi. Even though Pepsi may be technically sweeter and "...studies show that sweetness is what consumers want in a cola" and even though "...during the previous three quarters, Pepsi has shown superior growth in market share", at the end of the day, one is still a better long term bet than the other for reasons that cannot be derived from the math.

 

I think MMA is in this realm. Quants are quick to point out that it cannot possibly be true, if their methodology works with basketball than surely it can work with any sport but they're also exactly the same people who were lauding the strength of the Arizona real estate market in 2005 and have a total inability to derive any meaningful foresight based on enormously influential and predictable factors that don't yield a mathematically quantifiable pattern.

 

We're not talking Black Swans, either. Regular, ordinary shit that people of a certain intelligence type/cognitive modality are blind to even though they may be impressively competent with analyzing data and getting +ev with other shit.

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You underestimate smart people. There's not as big a division between Quant/Qual as you think. Most people I know would suggest I'm a quant, but I'm also good with words and feelings. My best friend got his masters in Analytics. Neither of us is a ****ing faggot. We both watch sports like normal people.

 

You're hostile to Quants. I get the impression you believe quantitative analysis is juvenile, or... limited? Like, sure, quants can know some things, but QUALS understand the mystery of the universe and universal truth and truth as more than just a concept and conceptual... whatever.

 

Sorry, I'm being kind of dramatic and hyperbolic. I'm pretty drunk. I guess what I'm trying to say is, you are drawing lines that don't need to be drawn. Quants are not computer programs. Quants are not spreadsheets or collections of data. Quants are people that, for the most part, interpret the world in a small-packet data-driven way.

 

The guys who beat hoops and football aren't going to look at MMA and be like, "DURRRRRR MATH IS MATH AND EVERYTHING TRANSLATES DURRRRRRRRRPSI." They're going to be skeptics and scientists, and they're going to be ruthlessly hungry for data, but not blinded by it. They're going to be people who understand how to blend all sorts of analysis and draw rational conclusions.

 

Basically, what I mean to say is, if you honestly believe the thing you're smart about is impervious to other intelligence, you're deluded. Maybe you're good enough to beat MMA right now. Maybe. If you are, you won't be able to use the same tools to beat the game going forward unless you're the only person in possession of that knowledge.

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