BigLebowski 0 Posted January 2, 2008 Share Posted January 2, 2008 Re: Lesnar vs. Mir, I have a few thoughts. - Rumor is that Lesnar tried to negotiate for a title fight as his UFC debut. Dana said no to that obviously. Lesnar would only settle for a top opponent. They came up with Mir. - If you're Brock Lesnar and you want to hand pick a heavyweight opponent, who better than Frank Mir? If I'm a top level amateur wrestler with little/no boxing experience, I'd much rather face a jiu jitsu guy than Mirko Cro Cop or Andre Arlovski. - This is a win/win situation for Dana. If Lesnar wins, they have an instant star on their hands to lead the heavyweight division for the next 5 years. If Lesnar loses, Dana gets the satisfaction of pointing out how phony pro rasslers can't come in to the octagon and hang with a former champion well past his prime.I think this fight is actually about as good of a matchup as Brock could get (from a legitimate heavyweight), and I have no doubt that he'll win.Hmm...I had the exact opposite thought process. Yes, Arlovski or Cro Cop could KO him, but once he got either one of them to the ground it is over. With his size he could easily bull rush either one of these guys and take them down without taking any punishment. They are both on the very light side of heavyweight. Instead, Lesnar gets someone he shouldn't be too excited about being on top of. Even an out of shape Mir is going to have the best JJ skills of any heavyweight. Cro Cop and Arlovski are really one trick ponies even though Arlovski has a little ground game, but a dedicated Mir poses a bigger danger in my opinion. If Mir is anywhere near serious about his career he should be taking this as a slap in the face and training his ass off.If I'm Lesnar I think I want to fight Cro Cop or Arlovski. I know I only have to worry about getting them down and having 30-40lbs on them that should not be a problem. With Mir I am not convinced I could beat him standing and I will have to constantly worry about subs when I have him on the ground. Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted January 2, 2008 Share Posted January 2, 2008 One thing we both forgot about in our breakdowns of the future is that Mac Danzig is going to drop to 155. Could be potentially interesting.Good point. You could pretty much give him anyone in that division and he would at the minimum hold his own. I wouldn't mind seeing him fight Diego or Tyson Griffin right out of the gate. There really is no reason to baby him. He is by far the most polished fighter ever to come out of TUF. Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Hmm...I had the exact opposite thought process. Yes, Arlovski or Cro Cop could KO him, but once he got either one of them to the ground it is over. With his size he could easily bull rush either one of these guys and take them down without taking any punishment.I'm struggling to remember a fight where someone tried to take Arlovski down...looking at his record I can see a couple fights that may have gone like that, but I honestly don't remember them. What does his takedown defense look like? Cro Cop on the other hand is dangerous because his lateral movement is so good. Bull-rushing him hasn't generally worked in the past (other than Gabriel Gonzaga). I feel like Lesnar has kinda short, stubby arms, bad for submissions. Plus he's freakishly strong. We just don't know much about him because of how bad his first opponent was.A couple random thoughts: Mirko Cro Cop appeared on a pro wrestling show in Japan on New Year's Eve - landing a high kick in a 6 man mixed tag match on...somebody, I don't know Japanese pro wres. And I saw Matt Hughes playing on Full Tilt today completely ignoring the railtards at $1/$2 NLHE. Way to separate yourself from the bad public image Matty. Anyone know what kind of deal he gets for being with FT?Good point. You could pretty much give him anyone in that division and he would at the minimum hold his own. I wouldn't mind seeing him fight Diego or Tyson Griffin right out of the gate. There really is no reason to baby him. He is by far the most polished fighter ever to come out of TUF.It's good to see a TUF winner that doesn't have to be protected - he'll fit in just fine with the rest of the division. It's hard to say if he'll be a contender or not, but he'll at least be in the same league as the rest of them.Anyone know the story of how he knows Gray Maynard? Mac's my age and was born in my hometown - I'm trying to figure out if I would have met him somewhere. Link to post Share on other sites
rkard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 I'm disappointed with Sok, lost a big bet on him.. odds were too inviting and his promise of Jungle Kung Fu along with Henderson in his corner got to me.I should just have unloaded on GSP, doesn't get any safer than that seeing as Hughes crosseyed standup isn't gonna knock anyone out the way Serra does. Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 I'm disappointed with Sok, lost a big bet on him.. odds were too inviting and his promise of Jungle Kung Fu along with Henderson in his corner got to me.I should just have unloaded on GSP, doesn't get any safer than that seeing as Hughes crosseyed standup isn't gonna knock anyone out the way Serra does.I'm still happy with the Sokoudjou bet - I think he should have won that fight. Not that Machida didn't kill him dead in completely convincing fashion, but it was almost 100% mental, not physical. Especially getting him as a slight dog, I'm happy with the bet. Betting on Hughes wasn't my finest hour though...Lebowski and Steve definitely got me on that one. Hopefully they'll be able to talk me off the ledge of betting on Serra rather than St. Pierre next time...especially with the odds I'm sure I'll get, I don't think I'll be able to avoid it. Link to post Share on other sites
rkard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 I'm still happy with the Sokoudjou bet - I think he should have won that fight. Not that Machida didn't kill him dead in completely convincing fashion, but it was almost 100% mental, not physical. Especially getting him as a slight dog, I'm happy with the bet. Betting on Hughes wasn't my finest hour though...Lebowski and Steve definitely got me on that one. Hopefully they'll be able to talk me off the ledge of betting on Serra rather than St. Pierre next time...especially with the odds I'm sure I'll get, I don't think I'll be able to avoid it.lol I'm sure betting on Serra could be tempting for your if you bet on Hughes. As much as I like Serra I don't see him beating GSP at all. I'll jump on that bet if it's better than 15%.Well, I was confident that Sok would win and the odds were too good to pass up. He would be able to dictate whether to stand up or not with his Judo. Then the fact that he's knocked people out in impressive fashion. Gah, even if I went back in time I'm sure I'd bet on Sok again even if I knew the outcome. I'm too stubborn. Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 lol I'm sure betting on Serra could be tempting for your if you bet on Hughes. As much as I like Serra I don't see him beating GSP at all. I'll jump on that bet if it's better than 15%.I don't see him beating GSP again, but I won't be able to shake it out of my head that he'll be able to submit GSP. I'm a huge Serra fan, and want him to retain and prove to the world that he's legitimately one of the best MMArtists in the world. Unfortunately I don't think it'll happen, but I'll put a bet down on him anyway because I'm not smart Link to post Share on other sites
rkard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 I don't see him beating GSP again, but I won't be able to shake it out of my head that he'll be able to submit GSP. I'm a huge Serra fan, and want him to retain and prove to the world that he's legitimately one of the best MMArtists in the world. Unfortunately I don't think it'll happen, but I'll put a bet down on him anyway because I'm not smart Hah, I think you need to tell yourself that he'll fight Hughes sooner or later (probably billed as former champs going at it Hehe) and you'll save your Serra bet for then. He'll still be a dog in that fight but I fancy my chances betting on Serra in a fight vs Hughes Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 I don't see him beating GSP again, but I won't be able to shake it out of my head that he'll be able to submit GSP. I'm a huge Serra fan, and want him to retain and prove to the world that he's legitimately one of the best MMArtists in the world. Unfortunately I don't think it'll happen, but I'll put a bet down on him anyway because I'm not smart I don't think losing to GSP is anything to hang your head about. It will definitely be interesting to see what the odds open at. I just hope the UFC gives Serra more opportunities even if he gets creamed by GSP. I would pay $40 just to see him and Hughes fight..no other fights needed on that card. Link to post Share on other sites
rkard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 I don't think losing to GSP is anything to hang your head about. It will definitely be interesting to see what the odds open at. I just hope the UFC gives Serra more opportunities even if he gets creamed by GSP. I would pay $40 just to see him and Hughes fight..no other fights needed on that card.Oh The Terra vs Farmboy will happen for sure unless Hughes decides to retire "I would pay $40 just to see him and Hughes fight." < UFC will make it happen for that exact reason. I'm a poker player I guess I shouldn't make fun of someones will to make money Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 I want to see Serra and Hughes tomorrow...I wish there was a way to do that fight before GSP vs. Serra (which I have no real desire to see...).Anyone ready to start handicapping UFC 80? And does anyone think the mods would care if I started a new thread for that? I'd hate to kill the good discussion we're having in this one, but we're about two weeks away from the next show and it's getting to be time to start getting the bets in line. Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 UFC80: +650 for me actually purchasing this event Link to post Share on other sites
bdc30 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Author Share Posted January 3, 2008 Anyone ready to start handicapping UFC 80?Bring it on!! I say keep it in this thread though - As a casual UFC observer (read - couldn't name more than 3-4 guys out of each weight class) this one was so much better thanks to the mountains of info in all the handicapping threads. I might even try and load a sportsbetting site if we keep this up for every event. Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 The card (taken from Wikipedia) with odds (taken from Bodog):Main Card * Lightweight championship bout: B.J. Penn (-285) vs. Joe Stevenson (+225) * Heavyweight bout: (-280) Gabriel Gonzaga vs. (+220) Fabricio Werdum * Welterweight bout: Marcus Davis vs. Jess Liaudin * Light Heavyweight bout: Wilson Gouveia vs. Jason Lambert * Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove (-500) vs. Jorge Rivera (+300) Preliminary Card * Heavyweight bout: Colin Robinson vs. Antoni Hardonk * Welterweight bout: Paul Taylor vs. Paul Kelly * Light Heavyweight bout: Alessio Sakara vs. James Lee * Lightweight bout: Per Eklund vs.Sam Stout I'll post predictions later...most fights don't have lines on Bodog yet. Right now I'm fairly confident in both Penn and Gonzaga...if you want to bet an underdog bet on Rivera. They're juicing that fight like crazy, so a BUNCH of early money must have gone down on Grove. I think he's probably the favorite and probably wins the fight, but the odds don't reflect the relative skills of the two fighters. Link to post Share on other sites
bdc30 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Author Share Posted January 3, 2008 Over/Under for number of fighters on this card I've ever heard of set at +/- 3.5Odds on me purchasing this +1,250(plus, isn't it on at like 3 in the afternoon or something?? - if so, odds go to +5000) Link to post Share on other sites
PrtyPSux 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 The card (taken from Wikipedia) with odds (taken from Bodog):Main Card * Lightweight championship bout: B.J. Penn (-285) vs. Joe Stevenson (+225) * Heavyweight bout: (-280) Gabriel Gonzaga vs. (+220) Fabricio Werdum * Welterweight bout: Marcus Davis vs. Jess Liaudin * Light Heavyweight bout: Wilson Gouveia vs. Jason Lambert * Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove (-500) vs. Jorge Rivera (+300) Preliminary Card * Heavyweight bout: Colin Robinson vs. Antoni Hardonk * Welterweight bout: Paul Taylor vs. Paul Kelly * Light Heavyweight bout: Alessio Sakara vs. James Lee * Lightweight bout: Per Eklund vs.Sam Stout I'll post predictions later...most fights don't have lines on Bodog yet. Right now I'm fairly confident in both Penn and Gonzaga...if you want to bet an underdog bet on Rivera. They're juicing that fight like crazy, so a BUNCH of early money must have gone down on Grove. I think he's probably the favorite and probably wins the fight, but the odds don't reflect the relative skills of the two fighters.Anyone see any value on Werdum here? just curious.. Uggh I hate that BJ is -285....I think if he drops down to -200 I'll bet him, and if Joe moves up to +300 or better I'll bet small on him. As it stands, I wouldn't bet the fight...Eeew at these fights/lines...they're really bad, I don't think Kendall is losing, I really can't see this donkey beating him....but laying that much action on someone just goes against everything I believe in MMA betting...5k to win 1k? Why are these guys even fighting anyway? Rivera has lost to any half way decent UFC guy and Kedall would probably crush him, but he did get KO'd last time by cote and might come in scared, does Rivera have enough of a punchers chance to justify a small bet? hopefully the lines get better ... Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Anyone see any value on Werdum here? just curious.. Uggh I hate that BJ is -285....I think if he drops down to -200 I'll bet him, and if Joe moves up to +300 or better I'll bet small on him. As it stands, I wouldn't bet the fight...Unfortunately none at all...Gonzaga's a black belt in BJJ (and I thought I remembered reading that he was a world champion or something, but I can't find it now), and is probably perfectly happy to stand up here. That being said, Werdum won the original fight between the two back in 2003, and 6 of his 9 wins come by submission (including Aleksander Emelianenko, Alistair Overeem, and Roman Zentsov). I don't want to talk you out of it, but I personally wouldn't do it.Edit: These appear to be the links to the three rounds of the original Werdum/Gonzaga fight. Watch 'em while you can.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-i6Sc9KC1M...feature=relatedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WGtf9H4dewhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_BVWOR6vQEI watched Round 1 and Round 3, and it's amazing how vulnerable Gonzaga is in the clinch. Couture beat him there, and so did Werdum. I'm starting to come around to the "there might be value in Werdum" camp, although the Gonzaga in that video is not likely to be the Gonzaga who comes in to the octagon. I bet Dana's hoping Werdum can pull off the upset though - he needs an untainted heavyweight, and he needs some good to come out of signing Cro Cop.The Penn line is going in the direction of making Stevenson a bigger dog - I think he opened up at around -200, and I really don't see it getting better. You might get Stevenson at +300, and I wouldn't discourage that bet. Joe Stevenson's a tough guy, and BJ is BJ...you never know what you're going to get with him, so I feel like he has a bigger fluke loss factor than anyone else.Eeew at these fights/lines...they're really bad, I don't think Kendall is losing, I really can't see this donkey beating him....but laying that much action on someone just goes against everything I believe in MMA betting...5k to win 1k? Why are these guys even fighting anyway? Rivera has lost to any half way decent UFC guy and Kedall would probably crush him, but he did get KO'd last time by cote and might come in scared, does Rivera have enough of a punchers chance to justify a small bet? hopefully the lines get better ...Of the three fights, I think Rivera's the best bet (although I don't think he wins). Rivera holds victories of Edwin DeWees, Dennis Hallman, David Louiseau, and Travis Lutter. None of them are great, and most of those wins are several years ago, but I'm not sure that Kendall Grove is really above that class of fighter. I didn't know this, but Grove is apparently training with Xtreme Couture. Being in that stable of fighters can't hurt, although I've never been sold on Randy Couture's coaching abilities. I'm tempted to put half of a bet on Rivera because of a puncher's chance...but I'm not confident in that. Link to post Share on other sites
rkard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Unfortunately none at all...Gonzaga's a black belt in BJJ (and I thought I remembered reading that he was a world champion or something, but I can't find it now), and is probably perfectly happy to stand up here. That being said, Werdum won the original fight between the two back in 2003, and 6 of his 9 wins come by submission (including Aleksander Emelianenko, Alistair Overeem, and Roman Zentsov). I don't want to talk you out of it, but I personally wouldn't do it.Edit: These appear to be the links to the three rounds of the original Werdum/Gonzaga fight. Watch 'em while you can.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-i6Sc9KC1M...feature=relatedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WGtf9H4dewhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_BVWOR6vQEI watched Round 1 and Round 3, and it's amazing how vulnerable Gonzaga is in the clinch. Couture beat him there, and so did Werdum. I'm starting to come around to the "there might be value in Werdum" camp, although the Gonzaga in that video is not likely to be the Gonzaga who comes in to the octagon. I bet Dana's hoping Werdum can pull off the upset though - he needs an untainted heavyweight, and he needs some good to come out of signing Cro Cop.The Penn line is going in the direction of making Stevenson a bigger dog - I think he opened up at around -200, and I really don't see it getting better. You might get Stevenson at +300, and I wouldn't discourage that bet. Joe Stevenson's a tough guy, and BJ is BJ...you never know what you're going to get with him, so I feel like he has a bigger fluke loss factor than anyone else.Of the three fights, I think Rivera's the best bet (although I don't think he wins). Rivera holds victories of Edwin DeWees, Dennis Hallman, David Louiseau, and Travis Lutter. None of them are great, and most of those wins are several years ago, but I'm not sure that Kendall Grove is really above that class of fighter. I didn't know this, but Grove is apparently training with Xtreme Couture. Being in that stable of fighters can't hurt, although I've never been sold on Randy Couture's coaching abilities. I'm tempted to put half of a bet on Rivera because of a puncher's chance...but I'm not confident in that.It's a bit of a state that card.. I want to see the undercard fight with Per Eklund as I've trained with him.. Experienced and methodical.Personally I'd bet on Stevenson but I'm too much of a BJ fan to pull the trigger on that one. I'm sure I'll end up putting a big one on BJ and lose Link to post Share on other sites
KDawgCometh 2 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 The fight between Griffin and Rampage won't take place until the entire show airs, and that's the problem. Rampage is out of action for a while now.right, but, it will build up a massive buy rate and make jackson as big of a star here that he desevers to be. this is just smart marketing on UFCs part Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 I'd disagree with that - I think to make Jackson a star they just have to put him out on the media a few times, not take him out of action for the next 6 months because of TUF. Meanwhile, the 205 division is the most talented division in the sport and they're not going to start working through some of those dream matches for quite a while. Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 I bet Dana's hoping Werdum can pull off the upset though - he needs an untainted heavyweight, and he needs some good to come out of signing Cro Cop.Untainted? Do you remember his fight with Arlovski last April? It made Arlovski/Sylvia III look like Liddell/Wandy. Unless he comes out a different fighter he has zero shot against Gonzaga. It's a bit of a state that card.. I want to see the undercard fight with Per Eklund as I've trained with him.. Experienced and methodical.I too am looking forward to catching that Eklund fight somewhere on the web. He is solid and a great addition to an already stacked division. Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Untainted? Do you remember his fight with Arlovski last April? It made Arlovski/Sylvia III look like Liddell/Wandy. Unless he comes out a different fighter he has zero shot against Gonzaga.The heavyweight division in the UFC has always sucked...even back when there were only two divisions the lightweight division was generally better. Werdum comes in without having lost to Gonzaga, Sylvia, or Couture - that makes him the best non-Nogueira option for the heavyweight title right now unfortunately. Not a great option, but a decent one... Link to post Share on other sites
Ron_Mexico 4,219 Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 they replayed UFC 70 last night on Spike. Good lord did Cro Cop take a kick to the head from Gonzaga. Looked like he snapped his ankle and tore up his knee getting knocked out. Pardon my "behind the times" posting. Link to post Share on other sites
grocery_mony 8 Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 they replayed UFC 70 last night on Spike. Good lord did Cro Cop take a kick to the head from Gonzaga. Looked like he snapped his ankle and tore up his knee getting knocked out. Pardon my "behind the times" posting.That and Rashad Evans Kick to Salmons head gotta be the 2 biggest KO's from last year. Gotta love the head kick. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 they replayed UFC 70 last night on Spike. Good lord did Cro Cop take a kick to the head from Gonzaga. Looked like he snapped his ankle and tore up his knee getting knocked out. Pardon my "behind the times" posting.How 'bout that armbar Royce slapped on Hackney? Link to post Share on other sites
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