aks, better not to see a flop?

[JFarrell20 1]

easy way to figure it 6 outs x 5 cards to come = 30x2 is 60%

so if i have 21 outs with 5 cards to come i should win an astounding 105% of the time!

When the F would you ever have 21 outs against 1 opponent pre-flop?I know I know you're just picking on the guy.

[Suited_Up 2]

I skipped a lot of stuff.. but justblaze is right. In terms of facing a raise in front of me.... I just like to call with this hand... because at this point, any pair is ahead. Any other two cards are still 50/50.The time I will re-raise... is if it's a shortstack who is getting desperate, or someone you know will raise mediocre hands. Anyone solid though... with a decent stack, I just like to call a raise.Of course if I'm first, I will always raise it.

[cdddc75 0]

i had AKs in a tourney i was in, and re-raised someone by a fair bit. they folded, and i won the hand.my question is, what do you guys think of AKs? would you prefer to see a flop, or win PF? i know a lot of it depends on the people at the table, but i was just looking for some general advice.thanks!

I don't mind winning pots without a flop at all. Sure, doubling up is fun, but I'll take "risk-free" chips any time.

A lot of people say that, but this is not proper strategy. Simply stealing the blinds when you're on the button with AA and you're short handed and on the $ bubble in a tournament is a tragedy. Taking risk free chips "anytime" won't win you tourneys.JMHO. You need to play as efficient as possible with every single hand to get to the top. There is no room for inefficiency.

Oh yeah, in a tourney, if you are down to 10X the Big Blind or less, and you're dealt AKs... push all in. Any position, and with any amount of players in the pot. Unless you are on the button and it's folded around to you, then you don't HAVE to push all in. But definitely raise at least the minimum. Same with the SB if it's folded to you. Same with the BB...if the SB limps after it was folded around to him/her, raise, but raise the minimum. This pretty much forces you to push all in on the flop no matter what comes, which I think is acceptable against 1 opponent.

So if I just raise the minimum with AA from the button and let one of the blinds flop a set to beat me, is that playing as efficiently as possible?Just wondering.

[Suited_Up 2]

It's possible for them to flop a set with any cards in their hand.If it gets folded to the me on the button, with just the blinds, and I have AA... at most, I will min raise... if they are the types to defend... If they are totally weak, I will go ahead and limp. Then hope for a raise. AA is still ahead of any hand they have... and you are at most going to be playing 3 handed. Which is the point of an early position raise anyway.This more applies to a bit more knowledgable competition. If you're playing total fish, they will call raises anyway. But hopefully you see what I mean.

[JFarrell20 1]

So if I just raise the minimum with AA from the button and let one of the blinds flop a set to beat me, is that playing as efficiently as possible?Just wondering.

Flop trips? Or a set? They wouldn't flop a set, because they'd likely re-raise you with a pocket pair heads up to see where they're at. If they flop trips, that's fine. It's poker. Gambling is a part of it. To answer your question... Yes... getting outdrawn by trips when you're heads up on the bubble with AA after raising pre-flop is efficient and correct. You see, there are two main factors to poker. Luck, and Skill. Bad luck and good luck are just as likely at any given moment, which is why you want to build the pot preflop in this spot. This is called using efficient skill when you have the opportunity.Remember, there will be times when you flop a better set and will get paid off like Jeff Gilooly.

[Shaffer 0]

Wow, I had no idea so many players were so risk-averse. I hit AK hard as hell, and in no way would I ever even begin to consider it a drawing hand. Depends on the table, and the specific opponent, of course, but it's a great hand to mix it up with, especially when you're in position. Against a low pocket pair, unless your opponent flops a set, you are in a great position to buy the pot if the turn comes with rags; your opponent is facing overcards and is unlikely to stake their hopes on that pair. Against a middle pair up to QQ, you're still drawing with 6 outs (only 3:1 if the flop misses you), and should have a chance to exit if your opponent hits the flop hard. Against most other hands that people will play in the face of a re-raise, you are a dominating favorite. The only hands to worry about are AA and KK, which will just about always re-re-raise you pf, and give you an opportunity to exit or at least slow down. It all depends on the level of play that you're up against, and I certainly slow way down with it when I'm up against calling stations, but I most certainly consider AK a hand to mix it up with!

[Awful 0]

i had AKs in a tourney i was in, and re-raised someone by a fair bit. they folded, and i won the hand.my question is, what do you guys think of AKs? would you prefer to see a flop, or win PF? i know a lot of it depends on the people at the table, but i was just looking for some general advice.thanks!

Even with good hands, you never mind winning without a showdown.Having someone fold to your big hand is a lot nicer form of being unlucky than getting broke because you let someone in on the cheap.Considering that 65s is less than 2-1 as a dog vs. AK, I don't mind not getting action.For most players, ending every hand they get preflop when they hold AA and just handing them 3 BB in a limit game would up their winrate. So don't sweat the size of the pot you win with big preflop hands, be happier you didn't make a mistake and get cracked by garbage.

[MasterLJ 0]

MasterLJ,why would you need to calculate hitting multiple aces or kings or whatever? This is simply a calculation for pairing up and I dont see any reason why the calculation needs to go beyond the one I just did. Please explain. Im not trying to be a smart ass

I know you aren't, but if you want to calculate whether AK wins over lower pocket pair, you need to account for all the possibilities and it's messy.But just in general 6/51 + 5/50 + ... is not the correct way to calculate statistics. In some cases it gives you close approximations, but it's not entirely correct.For example, the flush draw... Let's say you have 4 to a nut flush on the flop, then there are exactly 3 ways to make your flush. On the turn, on the river, or both, and they have slightly different odds.On the turn... 9/45 * 36/44, which is saying one of the 9 of your suit hits on the turn, and one non-of-your-suit hits on the river... +The chances you hit on the river...On the river... 37/45 * 9/44, which says that you hit a non-of-your-suit on the turn, and hit your suit on the river.+They both occur...9/45 * 8/44.You see how it's slightly different than just 9/45 + 9/44 ?And in fact, you get different numbers...My way (not to be a jerk, but the correct way) : 36.8%The other way: 40.4%

[MasterLJ 0]

Btw, I just read Makata's post, and like I said, there are some short-cut identities, my above post is using the long tedious way, as my statistics are a bit rusty. Both ways are correct, Makata's is a little slicker. (Yay! I just made a new word)

[Ebonwoulfe 0]

I think against strong opponents raising with AA in late position is vital, esp. if you've been picking up the occasional blind. They will play back because they know you're aware of position and not likely to have a great hand. Raise like you're trying to pick up the blinds. A minraise rarely looks like you're trying to pick them up.

[SplashMaster 0]

easy way to figure it 6 outs x 5 cards to come = 30x2 is 60%

so if i have 21 outs with 5 cards to come i should win an astounding 105% of the time!

how could you have 21 outs with 5 cards to come? momo

[SplashMaster 0]

easy way to figure it 6 outs x 5 cards to come = 30x2 is 60%

so if i have 21 outs with 5 cards to come i should win an astounding 105% of the time!

105% of the time?! That's almost worth playing for! BRILLIANT!

another genius :roll:

[SplashMaster 0]

easy way to figure it 6 outs x 5 cards to come = 30x2 is 60%

I gotta ask .. what math did you take in school?a) Where did you get the x2 at the end? Did you make it up to make your numbers work? Did you base it off the fact you have 2 cards .. if so don't you see you already took that into account with 6 outs, not 3?B) Where are you considering total # of cards in the deck? If poker was played with a 3000 card deck, you aren't going to pair as often as a 52 card one, yet by your math you would.c) Related to b, but how can you not realize that dealing the first card is dealing from a 50 (remaining) card deck, while dealing the 5th is dealing from a 46 card deck. Assuming in both cases you have yet to pair, don't you see how the second is obviously more likely to pair you than the first and thus not all streets give inherantly equal odds?Quick .. flip a coin twice. Chance for heads coming up at least once is 50% x 2 = 100% !!

99 vs 10 102 outs x 5 cards= 10 x 2 = 20 %hey it worked again :!: :wink: just cuz I dont write ##^^^78=(*(*&^)= r-pi rounded up to 100 divided by 25bozo

[bsabres81 0]

Actually 21 outs with 5 cards to come would be 210% to win according to his formula. The formula he gives is simply a very basic formula to quickly getting an estimate as to the odds. In most cases it is within 1 or 2% in post-flop situations. Evidently it is not applicable to pre-flop odds.

[SplashMaster 0]

Actually 21 outs with 5 cards to come would be 210% to win according to his formula. The formula he gives is simply a very basic formula to quickly getting an estimate as to the odds. In most cases it is within 1 or 2% in post-flop situations. Evidently it is not applicable to pre-flop odds.

it actually is. but thank you for realizing it is a simple way of computing odds within 1-4 %.preflop if you have JJ vs KK you have 2 outs with 5 cards coming giving you 10 multiplied by 2 is 20 %your actually round 82-18 but same thingmakata and justblaze feel better now? clowns

[justblaze 0]

easy way to figure it 6 outs x 5 cards to come = 30x2 is 60%

so if i have 21 outs with 5 cards to come i should win an astounding 105% of the time!

how could you have 21 outs with 5 cards to come? momo

um, how about if you are playing Omaha? the point isnt to create a situation where you have this many outs, the only important fact is that it is theoretically possible and that the horrid mathematical system you have devised for calculating the chance of one hitting an out is ridiculous. If you want to call me names like 'momo' (what exactly does that mean? im sure im supposed to be insulted...) its best not to butcher simple algebra in the same thread.

[SplashMaster 0]

easy way to figure it 6 outs x 5 cards to come = 30x2 is 60%

so if i have 21 outs with 5 cards to come i should win an astounding 105% of the time!

how could you have 21 outs with 5 cards to come? momo

um, how about if you are playing Omaha? the point isnt to create a situation where you have this many outs, the only important fact is that it is theoretically possible and that the horrid mathematical system you have devised for calculating the chance of one hitting an out is ridiculous. If you want to call me names like 'momo' (what exactly does that mean? im sure im supposed to be insulted...) its best not to butcher simple algebra in the same thread.

if its horrid than why does it work?and who said anything about omaha?and yes your a momoand yes you should be insulted because you cant see a basic formula for calculating oddsI have said this before now hurry back to your 2cent game :!:

[justblaze 0]

easy way to figure it 6 outs x 5 cards to come = 30x2 is 60%

so if i have 21 outs with 5 cards to come i should win an astounding 105% of the time!

how could you have 21 outs with 5 cards to come? momo

um, how about if you are playing Omaha? the point isnt to create a situation where you have this many outs, the only important fact is that it is theoretically possible and that the horrid mathematical system you have devised for calculating the chance of one hitting an out is ridiculous. If you want to call me names like 'momo' (what exactly does that mean? im sure im supposed to be insulted...) its best not to butcher simple algebra in the same thread.

if its horrid than why does it work?and who said anything about omaha?and yes your a momoand yes you should be insulted because you cant see a basic formula for calculating oddsI have said this before now hurry back to your 2cent game :!:

it doesnt work. it happens to give marginally accurate results in certain conditions, but is extremely innacurate in other conditions as i have demonstrated. I said something about omaha. It is possible in an Omaha game to have 21 outs with 5 cards to come. The number of private cards is irrelevant to the formula for calculating outs in a community card game (care to dispute this?) and your formula becomes less and less accurate as more outs are added. In a game like omaha, where large draws are common, this formula would lead you to an incorrect answer nearly every time. you still havent told me what a momo is. I can see the formula you are advocating, but you cannot see that it is flawed. PartyPoker does not spread 2cent games.

[SplashMaster 0]

easy way to figure it 6 outs x 5 cards to come = 30x2 is 60%

so if i have 21 outs with 5 cards to come i should win an astounding 105% of the time!

how could you have 21 outs with 5 cards to come? momo

um, how about if you are playing Omaha? the point isnt to create a situation where you have this many outs, the only important fact is that it is theoretically possible and that the horrid mathematical system you have devised for calculating the chance of one hitting an out is ridiculous. If you want to call me names like 'momo' (what exactly does that mean? im sure im supposed to be insulted...) its best not to butcher simple algebra in the same thread.

if its horrid than why does it work?and who said anything about omaha?and yes your a momoand yes you should be insulted because you cant see a basic formula for calculating oddsI have said this before now hurry back to your 2cent game :!:

it doesnt work. it happens to give marginally accurate results in certain conditions, but is extremely innacurate in other conditions as i have demonstrated. I said something about omaha. It is possible in an Omaha game to have 21 outs with 5 cards to come. The number of private cards is irrelevant to the formula for calculating outs in a community card game (care to dispute this?) and your formula becomes less and less accurate as more outs are added. In a game like omaha, where large draws are common, this formula would lead you to an incorrect answer nearly every time. you still havent told me what a momo is. I can see the formula you are advocating, but you cannot see that it is flawed. PartyPoker does not spread 2cent games.

you demonstrated a situation that is impossibleif you can show me an example where you can have 21 outs with no flop down than your a better man than II may be wrong but I'm pretty sure its impossible.you could be right though :wink: keep fighting thoughand the formula brings you within 1-4 % of true odds.maybe you can discuss this with lou krigercuz thats were it comes frombut you know more than he does, I'm sureand yes your still a momonow I'm done responding to you because you are clueless.

[justblaze 0]

you demonstrated a situation that is impossibleif you can show me an example where you can have 21 outs with no flop down than your a better man than II may be wrong but I'm pretty sure its impossible.you could be right though :wink: keep fighting thoughand the formula brings you within 1-4 % of true odds.maybe you can discuss this with lou krigercuz thats were it comes frombut you know more than he does, I'm sureand yes your still a momonow I'm done responding to you because you are clueless.

Omaha 8 -Villain 2d2c2s2hHero 7s8s9d10dHero's outs:3 7s, 3 8s, 3 9s, 3 10s (12), 3 unique straights which dont include a 7,8,9 or 10 (15), 2 flushes (2 outs each - 19), 5 to a flush in either clubs or hearts (0.5 outs - 19.5), 2 pair on board (1.5 outs - 21). Note: heres the actual probabilities.http://twodimes.net/h/?z=871949pokenum -mc 500000 -o8 2s 2c 2d 2h - 7c 8c 9s ts Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boardscards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV2s 2c 2d 2h 36018 69697 430303 0 0 0 0 0.106Ts 9s 8c 7c 430303 430303 69697 0 134474 0 0 0.894according to your formula the Hero's hand wins 210% of the time which is by definition a mathematical impossibility, and is also clearly wrong as demonstrated by the twodimes calculator. I suspect the reason you will no longer respond to me is because you challenged me to a HU match in another thread, and i responded with a plethora of sites i would agree to play you on for any stakes you desired, a response you clearly did not anticipate.

[RISINGSHARK 0]

And to answer the original question of the thread, I hate all-ins pre flop with AK, it's a hand you definitely want to see the flop with.

Alot of people like the Ace King all-in move since it guarantees that they'll get to see all 5 cards if they get called. (Takes away having to make a post flop decision if the board is all rags).The situation I keep having trouble with is I find myself getting Ace King in situations when I'd rather not get involved. (ie. next one out doesn't finish in the money and someone acting before me goes all in.)

/shrug this is completely off topic but who cares about making the money. top 3 is where the real payday is.

I think he is probably referring to a SNG where top 3 get the money and the rest get nothing !

[SplashMaster 0]

you demonstrated a situation that is impossibleif you can show me an example where you can have 21 outs with no flop down than your a better man than II may be wrong but I'm pretty sure its impossible.you could be right though :wink: keep fighting thoughand the formula brings you within 1-4 % of true odds.maybe you can discuss this with lou krigercuz thats were it comes frombut you know more than he does, I'm sureand yes your still a momonow I'm done responding to you because you are clueless.

Omaha 8 -Villain 2d2c2s2hHero 7s8s9d10dHero's outs:3 7s, 3 8s, 3 9s, 3 10s (12), 3 unique straights which dont include a 7,8,9 or 10 (15), 2 flushes (2 outs each - 19), 5 to a flush in either clubs or hearts (0.5 outs - 19.5), 2 pair on board (1.5 outs - 21). Note: heres the actual probabilities.http://twodimes.net/h/?z=871949pokenum -mc 500000 -o8 2s 2c 2d 2h - 7c 8c 9s ts Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boardscards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV2s 2c 2d 2h 36018 69697 430303 0 0 0 0 0.106Ts 9s 8c 7c 430303 430303 69697 0 134474 0 0 0.894according to your formula the Hero's hand wins 210% of the time which is by definition a mathematical impossibility, and is also clearly wrong as demonstrated by the twodimes calculator. I suspect the reason you will no longer respond to me is because you challenged me to a HU match in another thread, and i responded with a plethora of sites i would agree to play you on for any stakes you desired, a response you clearly did not anticipate.

ummm who said anything about omaha?for the THIRD time. your still a clown

[cdddc75 0]

easy way to figure it 6 outs x 5 cards to come = 30x2 is 60%

I gotta ask .. what math did you take in school?a) Where did you get the x2 at the end? Did you make it up to make your numbers work? Did you base it off the fact you have 2 cards .. if so don't you see you already took that into account with 6 outs, not 3?B) Where are you considering total # of cards in the deck? If poker was played with a 3000 card deck, you aren't going to pair as often as a 52 card one, yet by your math you would.c) Related to b, but how can you not realize that dealing the first card is dealing from a 50 (remaining) card deck, while dealing the 5th is dealing from a 46 card deck. Assuming in both cases you have yet to pair, don't you see how the second is obviously more likely to pair you than the first and thus not all streets give inherantly equal odds?Quick .. flip a coin twice. Chance for heads coming up at least once is 50% x 2 = 100% !!

99 vs 10 102 outs x 5 cards= 10 x 2 = 20 %hey it worked again :!: :wink: just cuz I dont write ##^^^78=(*(*&^)= r-pi rounded up to 100 divided by 25bozo

Hey splash, according to your formula, JT is a 60/40 preflop favorite over AK. 6 outs (three jacks + three tens) X 5 = 30 x 2 = 60% Do you have a brother that posts under the handle "JFarrell20"?

[justblaze 0]

you demonstrated a situation that is impossibleif you can show me an example where you can have 21 outs with no flop down than your a better man than II may be wrong but I'm pretty sure its impossible.you could be right though :wink: keep fighting thoughand the formula brings you within 1-4 % of true odds.maybe you can discuss this with lou krigercuz thats were it comes frombut you know more than he does, I'm sureand yes your still a momonow I'm done responding to you because you are clueless.

Omaha 8 -Villain 2d2c2s2hHero 7s8s9d10dHero's outs:3 7s, 3 8s, 3 9s, 3 10s (12), 3 unique straights which dont include a 7,8,9 or 10 (15), 2 flushes (2 outs each - 19), 5 to a flush in either clubs or hearts (0.5 outs - 19.5), 2 pair on board (1.5 outs - 21). Note: heres the actual probabilities.http://twodimes.net/h/?z=871949pokenum -mc 500000 -o8 2s 2c 2d 2h - 7c 8c 9s ts Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boardscards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV2s 2c 2d 2h 36018 69697 430303 0 0 0 0 0.106Ts 9s 8c 7c 430303 430303 69697 0 134474 0 0 0.894according to your formula the Hero's hand wins 210% of the time which is by definition a mathematical impossibility, and is also clearly wrong as demonstrated by the twodimes calculator. I suspect the reason you will no longer respond to me is because you challenged me to a HU match in another thread, and i responded with a plethora of sites i would agree to play you on for any stakes you desired, a response you clearly did not anticipate.

ummm who said anything about omaha?for the THIRD time. your still a clown

for the third time, I (as in me, justblaze, the guy who is typing this) mentioned omaha as a convenient way of proving your supposed formula does not work. Im going to explain this one more time, in as plain english as possible. the methodology used to calculate outs in omaha and texas should be identical as both games use 5 community cards dealt in the same sequence (flop, turn, river). The fact that omaha uses 4 'hole' or 'private' cards instead of two, as in texas, has no bearing on the calculation of ones chance of hitting a given number of outs, as this fact does not change the way outs can be hit, only how many you have. I have previously shown that using your system, a draw with 21 live outs and 5 cards to come will win at a mathematically impossible rate of 210%. you countered that i could not create a situation in which a poker hand had 21 outs before the flop:you demonstrated a situation that is impossible... show me an example where you can have 21 outs with no flop down I have no shown you a situation in a flop game where one player could have 21 live outs over another player. Clearly the situation is not impossible, but the percentage chance of said player hitting those outs in accordance with your formula IS impossible. nothing can be certain to occur beyond 100%, that is the mathematically maximum certainty we can assign to any specific event occuring at least once. I would also like to take this time to remind you that as per your challenge to play me, i have specified no less than 6 reputable sites offering real money poker, at which i will agree to play you for any stakes you desire. You have yet to respond.

[SplashMaster 0]

you demonstrated a situation that is impossibleif you can show me an example where you can have 21 outs with no flop down than your a better man than II may be wrong but I'm pretty sure its impossible.you could be right though :wink: keep fighting thoughand the formula brings you within 1-4 % of true odds.maybe you can discuss this with lou krigercuz thats were it comes frombut you know more than he does, I'm sureand yes your still a momonow I'm done responding to you because you are clueless.

Omaha 8 -Villain 2d2c2s2hHero 7s8s9d10dHero's outs:3 7s, 3 8s, 3 9s, 3 10s (12), 3 unique straights which dont include a 7,8,9 or 10 (15), 2 flushes (2 outs each - 19), 5 to a flush in either clubs or hearts (0.5 outs - 19.5), 2 pair on board (1.5 outs - 21). Note: heres the actual probabilities.http://twodimes.net/h/?z=871949pokenum -mc 500000 -o8 2s 2c 2d 2h - 7c 8c 9s ts Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boardscards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV2s 2c 2d 2h 36018 69697 430303 0 0 0 0 0.106Ts 9s 8c 7c 430303 430303 69697 0 134474 0 0 0.894according to your formula the Hero's hand wins 210% of the time which is by definition a mathematical impossibility, and is also clearly wrong as demonstrated by the twodimes calculator. I suspect the reason you will no longer respond to me is because you challenged me to a HU match in another thread, and i responded with a plethora of sites i would agree to play you on for any stakes you desired, a response you clearly did not anticipate.

ummm who said anything about omaha?for the THIRD time. your still a clown

for the third time, I (as in me, justblaze, the guy who is typing this) mentioned omaha as a convenient way of proving your supposed formula does not work. Im going to explain this one more time, in as plain english as possible. the methodology used to calculate outs in omaha and texas should be identical as both games use 5 community cards dealt in the same sequence (flop, turn, river). The fact that omaha uses 4 'hole' or 'private' cards instead of two, as in texas, has no bearing on the calculation of ones chance of hitting a given number of outs, as this fact does not change the way outs can be hit, only how many you have. I have previously shown that using your system, a draw with 21 live outs and 5 cards to come will win at a mathematically impossible rate of 210%. you countered that i could not create a situation in which a poker hand had 21 outs before the flop:you demonstrated a situation that is impossible... show me an example where you can have 21 outs with no flop down I have no shown you a situation in a flop game where one player could have 21 live outs over another player. Clearly the situation is not impossible, but the percentage chance of said player hitting those outs in accordance with your formula IS impossible. nothing can be certain to occur beyond 100%, that is the mathematically maximum certainty we can assign to any specific event occuring at least once. I would also like to take this time to remind you that as per your challenge to play me, i have specified no less than 6 reputable sites offering real money poker, at which i will agree to play you for any stakes you desire. You have yet to respond.

I just responded because I just saw it.show me a holdem example of 21 outs with no flop.you cant.and like I said dispute this with lou krieger in his cardplayer article.so hes wrong and your right?I think not chief