Early In 100+9 Bodog Ds

[copernicus 0]

85 runners, about 10 hands in. The table has been loose preflop, with big bets and calls on the flop and lot of folding on the turn. I overbet AK early with a check/push to a Kxx board with the original raiser leading and two folds, which may have set the tone for some of the big moves.KLHanger 1 $2,435.00 bunny33 2 $2,530.00MSteitz12 3 $2,485.00 Inforaquicky 4 $2,435.00doncorleone 5 $2,695.00Uncle 8 6 $1,945.00Hero 7 $3,185.00 small blindAgentSSE 8 $2,965.00 Bears 9 $1,825.00Hero is SB blinds 10/20 with KcJc4 foldsInforaquicky Raise $ 70.00 doncorleone Fold $ 0.00 Uncle 8 Call $ 70.00 Hero Call $ 60.00 AgentSSE Call $ 50.00 Flop 5h Kh 10s 23:15:41 Hero Check I check planning to raise since the tables been active and with 3 others expect to get the chance.AgentSSE Check Inforaquicky Bet $ 200.00 Uncle 8 Call $ 200.00 Hero Call $ 200.00 With two in already I pull back from the check raise. Im a bit worried about KQ, and pair+flush draw that will be hard to chase. Seeing the turn will clarify thingsAgentSSE All-in $ 2,895.00 A bit of a surprise. Hero?

[throwemaway 0]

Easy fold..You have plenty of time and a big enough stack to work with..No need to get into huge confrontations with only TP3K here

[ChrisRichey 1]

Looks like a fold to me. Even if he is on a FD, seems like a pretty big gamble this early in the tourney.

[copernicus 0]

Not much interest in this one.This is one of the easiest big, early calls Ive ever made in a tourney. Once I had gone through my own thought process for abandoning the check raise, plus the added information that BB had that everyone else was weak, his push screamed semi-bluff. While im still a little worried about KQ, I would expect a protection bet rather than a check raise all in with that, and A weaker flush draw wouldnt check/push, it would blocker lead or take the cheap look. So, I put him squarely on AhTh making me a slight dog getting 10:7 odds.Good read me, that was his hand, he bricked and I had a very big stack early.Unfortunately all the profits from that hand disappeared 3 hands later when a donk to my right massively overvalued A9, TPTK, when I was raising/betting pot on every street with JJ to a 9533 board and he spikes a 9 on the river.I find Bodog tourneys to be very weak. Ive played a dozen in the last week, won one, cashed in 4 others and bubbled in two, possibly with impatient bubble play. In neither of those was I confident I could back into the money, even though at least in a $109 buy in tourney I would have taken it. Both times I picked up first in vig with 77 in MP2 and MP3 and felt I had to push. The stacks behind me were average, once I ran into QQ and the other I was called by A9, which I though was an awful call, and he winds up with a full house.Theres a ton of trash talking in these tourneys....especially rebuys, but Im going to start another topic on that.

[gobears 0]

I saw the results but I think that a fold is still in order. I think that a set or top two plays like this also besides the NFD. With three players in ahead of him, he really doesn't want to give anyone the right odds to draw so there's enough in the pot to push at that point.

[Mercury69 3]

Fold.Agresso has a set of 5 and wants to push the flush draw off. TP/medium kicker can't stand up to that.Hahaha at me. After reading the responses, boy, was I off. There must be something wrong with me. Is there something wrong with my read? Am I expecting giving too much credit to my "opponent" or his hand strength? Guess I'll just keep reading and playing.

[Bubba83 0]

You're not necessarily wrong just because of these results Mercury. A decision can still be the correct one if it's right a lot more than it is wrong.If he turns over something that has us in bad shape here we're wrong, and I think his range could definitely include KQ/AK/a set.In my opinion, we aren't right about the NFD nearly enough to be making this call.I fold.

[Mercury69 3]

You're not necessarily wrong just because of these results Mercury. A decision can still be the correct one if it's right a lot more than it is wrong.If he turns over something that has us in bad shape here we're wrong, and I think his range could definitely include KQ/AK/a set.In my opinion, we aren't right about the NFD nearly enough to be making this call.I fold.

Thx, Bubba. I'm really struggling right now. I'm making a lot of solid calls and getting screwed by the cards, so my confidence is pretty effed. I guess my "reads" tend to skew more toward the negative possibilities, which may indicate I'm a naturally TAG player.Anyway, I'm havingt a great time here in Tourney Strat, btw. Special thx to those of you who rebut my posts diplomatically with reason.

[DonkSlayer 1]

Copernicus, I definitely saw the villain having Ah10h as a possibility in this hand, as well as a QcJc. But, is that the risk to take in a deepstack? I think 555 plays like this as well. Thoughts? I love that flop when I hit bottom set with lots of players.

[copernicus 0]

You're not necessarily wrong just because of these results Mercury. A decision can still be the correct one if it's right a lot more than it is wrong.If he turns over something that has us in bad shape here we're wrong, and I think his range could definitely include KQ/AK/a set.In my opinion, we aren't right about the NFD nearly enough to be making this call.I fold.

Checking with those hands would be a huge mistake, especially with 2 behind him, 3 in the hand. Since most of his made and check raisable hands eat Ks the chances of a bettable hand behind him are greatly reduced, and at this level players arent continuation betting with 3 opponents. A check of a made hand here is begging to give away a free card to 3 dangerous hands. The best you can hope for is an awful "blocker bet" like was made, and that is rarely going to happen. If you put yourself in his seat and would check any made hand that doesnt also include the Ah I think youre prone to wasting a lot of solid hands giving away free cards.

[DonkSlayer 1]

Checking with those hands would be a huge mistake, especially with 2 behind him, 3 in the hand. Since most of his made and check raisable hands eat Ks the chances of a bettable hand behind him are greatly reduced, and at this level players arent continuation betting with 3 opponents. A check of a made hand here is begging to give away a free card to 3 dangerous hands. The best you can hope for is an awful "blocker bet" like was made, and that is rarely going to happen. If you put yourself in his seat and would check any made hand that doesnt also include the Ah I think youre prone to wasting a lot of solid hands giving away free cards.

Again, though, this flop is unlikely to have completely missed 3 players.

[copernicus 0]

Again, though, this flop is unlikely to have completely missed 3 players.

If he has a made hand with a K or 2 then its quite likely to have missed the other 3 players, except for underpairs and draws, and he cant count on either to bet.

[Bubba83 0]

Checking with those hands would be a huge mistake, especially with 2 behind him, 3 in the hand. Since most of his made and check raisable hands eat Ks the chances of a bettable hand behind him are greatly reduced, and at this level players arent continuation betting with 3 opponents. A check of a made hand here is begging to give away a free card to 3 dangerous hands. The best you can hope for is an awful "blocker bet" like was made, and that is rarely going to happen. If you put yourself in his seat and would check any made hand that doesnt also include the Ah I think youre prone to wasting a lot of solid hands giving away free cards.

I think you are assuming way too much about our unknown here.If we had some kind of read on how he likes to play we might be able to get inside his head and figure out what he's thinking, but it's early and we have no read. Just because he's in a $109 buy-in event doesn't mean he is going to play one way or another, maybe he just has a larger amount of money to fool around with in poker. He could be the worst player we've ever seen, who knows.

[ChrisRichey 1]

Copernicus, I definitely saw the villain having Ah10h as a possibility in this hand, as well as a QcJc. But, is that the risk to take in a deepstack? I think 555 plays like this as well. Thoughts? I love that flop when I hit bottom set with lots of players.

I don't think a set of 5's is going to check/push here. If he rr'd to say 1200, then I would think 555 is much more likely.

[Bubba83 0]

If he re-raises to 1200 and someone calls on the flop, and then a 3rd heart drops on the turn, what is he supposed to do then? Avoiding this situation is why I think a set of 5s is more likely to push in than check raise to 1200.

[copernicus 0]

I think you are assuming way too much about our unknown here.If we had some kind of read on how he likes to play we might be able to get inside his head and figure out what he's thinking, but it's early and we have no read. Just because he's in a $109 buy-in event doesn't mean he is going to play one way or another, maybe he just has a larger amount of money to fool around with in poker. He could be the worst player we've ever seen, who knows.

I dont think this situation requires a read of an individual other than that he he understands the most basic principles of slowplaying. If he doesnt then he's new to poker because at $100 a clip hes going to tire of giving away money quickly! I always assume basic competence at any level, since the ones who play worse than I assume will eventually give me their chips anyway.

[copernicus 0]

Copernicus, I definitely saw the villain having Ah10h as a possibility in this hand, as well as a QcJc. But, is that the risk to take in a deepstack? I think 555 plays like this as well. Thoughts? I love that flop when I hit bottom set with lots of players.

Missed this one yesterday. I dont love that flop when I hit bottom set with a lot of players. Its so draw heavy with cards that are likely to be in opponents hands that you need to push them out or hit your boat. If theres a monster draw then you cant even push them out, and though a bit unlikely with the preflop action, sometimes you are behind already to a bigger set.

[ChrisRichey 1]

If he re-raises to 1200 and someone calls on the flop, and then a 3rd heart drops on the turn, what is he supposed to do then? Avoiding this situation is why I think a set of 5s is more likely to push in than check raise to 1200.

Well, sometimes that happens in poker. By pushing, he losing A LOT of value. I forgot there were so many people in the hand, so I'd probably reraise to 1400-1500.

[Bubba83 0]

I'm not saying his play is good if he makes that move with a set of 5s, I'm just giving some reasoning for why he might make the play.

[GABMAD 0]

85 runners, about 10 hands in. The table has been loose preflop, with big bets and calls on the flop and lot of folding on the turn. I overbet AK early with a check/push to a Kxx board with the original raiser leading and two folds, which may have set the tone for some of the big moves.KLHanger 1 $2,435.00 bunny33 2 $2,530.00MSteitz12 3 $2,485.00 Inforaquicky 4 $2,435.00doncorleone 5 $2,695.00Uncle 8 6 $1,945.00Hero 7 $3,185.00 small blindAgentSSE 8 $2,965.00 Bears 9 $1,825.00Hero is SB blinds 10/20 with KcJc4 foldsInforaquicky Raise $ 70.00 doncorleone Fold $ 0.00 Uncle 8 Call $ 70.00 Hero Call $ 60.00 AgentSSE Call $ 50.00 Flop 5h Kh 10s 23:15:41 Hero Check I check planning to raise since the tables been active and with 3 others expect to get the chance.AgentSSE Check Inforaquicky Bet $ 200.00 Uncle 8 Call $ 200.00 Hero Call $ 200.00 With two in already I pull back from the check raise. Im a bit worried about KQ, and pair+flush draw that will be hard to chase. Seeing the turn will clarify thingsAgentSSE All-in $ 2,895.00 A bit of a surprise. Hero?

Hmmm...looks to me like Q9 of hearts type hand. It's tough to say what the right thing to do here is. Although I'd probably muck it as there are 2 other players behind me to act and it's just not worth it. You'd have to be right on your read that he's drawing, and you'd have to avoid him hitting if he is drawing. Multiply those probablities and it's not often you walk away with the chips here. I say muck. This is a DS and only first gets through which might change things but I think folding is better than calling either way.EDIT after reading responses: Even though he did have the drawing hand I think calling was a bad play because 1) you have to be right with your read and you have to hold in a coin flip, and 2) if you're not right with your read, he's ahead and you're likely chasing a J which comes 12% of the time. Ya you might have been 60% sure that he's holding a big drawing hand in which case you are even money. But the pot odds aren't offering you enough to compensate when he does have KQ AK or a set because I can see all of those played the same way.

[ChrisRichey 1]

If his read was that he had a FD, then it is absolutely the correct call, and you have to trust your reads.