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talk about some %$#&@ing variance


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ive had ACE-KING offsuit approximately 43 times in the last two weeks ( I know because i have pokertracker) and have missed the flop with it 41 times!!! On top of that, the two time that i have hit it, someone has either flopped bottom two or a set...wowanyone else have similar streaks...?

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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converterPreflop: LongTermLoser is BB with K:diamond:, A:spade:. UTG calls, 3 folds, UTG calls, MP3 calls, Button :#A500AF(TheBadMan)/ calls.Flop: (12.50 SB) 2:diamond:, A:heart:, K:spade: (4 players)LongTermLoser bets, UTG folds, MP3 calls, TheBadMan calls.Turn: (7.75 BB) J:club: (3 players)LongTermLoser bets, MP3 calls, TheBadMan calls.River: (10.75 BB) 7:spade: (3 players)LongTermLoser bets, LongTermLoser calls, MP3 calls.Final Pot: 16.75 BBLongTermLoser has Kd As (two pair, aces and kings). MP3 has 4s Ac (one pair, aces). TheBadMan has 7d 7c (three of a kind, sevens). Outcome: TheBadMan wins 16.75 BB.

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wrto.. just quit raising with KJos from UTG, that should clear up your problem ya fish :D
This isn't even a joke, bro. I actually thought about giving up the game. But I hear 150BB downswings aren't even the worse you go through. yay...
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lol ouch, I think you know about my Absolute story as well haha.Thats just poker man, I just fixed it by beating those suckers when the cards started coming, had a rough day today on absolute not hitting my BFV draws and shit, but I was only 10 down which well.. is fine as you know.How long was the 150 bb downswing? Right now the way my money is spread out if I had a 150bb and it was mostly on one or two sites it'd be hard for me because I'd end up having to clear my neteller dry to re-load the sites and Pstars is now taking 2 days to give me money on neteller which is more than annoying...

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i hope jayweb is kidding about raising with kj utg...ugh....lolGo back to good ol' sklansky material...ive really started following his guidelines better and my BR has been noticing :-) What you're % of flops seen?PS. Ive thought about giving the game up so many times....dont even waste your time typing that you'll quit because it won't happen...ever...you're a poker player now and you always will be :D

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What sites is this at? I told you aobut ultimatebet... Im actually down including the long as bonus u get back... its ridiculous since I've been back there haven't had anything close to a rush of cards and its a damn quarry of rocks, I feel like I'm playing with 1o Tight Aggresives all day it makes me sick if I get back to even im going to take it off, I'm just too stubborn I wont leave it without my original 200 back lol

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I just went through a big swing at party 1/2 tables, Had to pull alot of my money from PM and a decent chuck from where I prop at to fill my bankroll back up, also dropped down to .5/1 for a little while, at least until im back above 800 or so

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if this is true...i gotta say good job to wrtomany low limit players won't make a play this advanced...its all about isolating the initial raiser who in all liklihood has two highcards in which you're a favorite over...if the situation called for it, it may have been the best play.

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What sites is this at?  I told you aobut ultimatebet... Im actually down including the long as bonus u get back... its ridiculous since I've been back there haven't had anything close to a rush of cards and its a damn quarry of rocks, I feel like I'm playing with 1o Tight Aggresives all day it makes me sick if I get back to even im going to take it off, I'm just too stubborn I wont leave it without my original 200 back lol
This is at party. I'm up about 150BB at that one site. :wink: Christ all mighty, I just need to vent.
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damn those are really good stats...hmm...you must be in a bad downswing...just dont tilt and start play KJsuited behind a raise with no other callers and shiot

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if this is true...i gotta say good job to wrtomany low limit players won't make a play this advanced...its all about isolating the initial raiser who in all liklihood has two highcards in which you're a favorite over...if the situation called for it, it may have been the best play.
Is what true? Btw, I'm a big fan of isolation.***** Hand History for Game 1842647868 *****$2/$4 Hold'em - Monday, April 04, 03:54:07 EDT 2005Table Table 15678 (Real Money)Seat 8 is the buttonTotal number of players : 10Seat 1: yaleman66 ( $46.5 )Seat 2: gg_no_re ( $125.5 )Seat 3: darrellwc ( $175.5 )Seat 5: mnewton212x ( $99 )Seat 6: CAVEMAN5564 ( $130.75 )Seat 7: goldtoe4556 ( $144.5 )Seat 8: dcdcards ( $108 )Seat 10: BombDog2 ( $97 )Seat 9: johnnybabe ( $112 )Seat 4: Larsson85 ( $66 )johnnybabe posts small blind [$1].BombDog2 posts big blind [$2].** Dealing down cards **Dealt to goldtoe4556 [ 7c 7s ]gg_no_re raises [$4].darrellwc folds.Larsson85 folds.mnewton212x folds.CAVEMAN5564 folds.goldtoe4556 raises [$6].dcdcards folds.johnnybabe folds.BombDog2 folds.gg_no_re calls [$2].** Dealing Flop ** [ 3h, 9d, 9c ]gg_no_re checks.goldtoe4556 bets [$2].gg_no_re raises [$4].goldtoe4556 calls [$2].** Dealing Turn ** [ 4h ]gg_no_re bets [$4].goldtoe4556 calls [$4].** Dealing River ** [ 3c ]gg_no_re bets [$4].goldtoe4556 calls [$4].gg_no_re shows [ Th, Tc ] two pairs, tens and nines.goldtoe4556 doesn't show [ 7c, 7s ] two pairs, nines and sevens.gg_no_re wins $37.5 from the main pot with two pairs, tens and nines.Just hasn't been working out for me.
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your aggro factor is a bit low... Yeah I hope you fold KJ UTG man... Either way... My normal stats are (this is after 30k hands counting old UB info, PStars and Party and not including 6-handed)VP%IP - 17% PFR% 8.5% Aggro - 2.9%Now... Ultimate Bet last 4k hands... (no lie this IS 4k hands)VP%IP - 11.5% PFR% 7 Aggre 2.8%This is my first experience of a 4k+ Cold Streak... lol its ridiculous, I went to the .05/.10 tables to nutbar for a while lost 10 bucks but I think it was worth it just to get it out of my system...Betting for isolation... I think one of the conversations we had on MSN about that was amazing, we should have saved it lol Yeah betting for isolationg is great.

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if you telling loosehole or whatever his name was to 3 bet it with 22...i forgot to quote him, my bad. I don't think the aggressive factor is too low...it all really depends. are you including preflop numbers?? On pokertracker, the default is to not include it. Including pf numbers my aggression factor is 2.3 but without its 3.9 (im an aggressive mofo)if its nots counting pf numbers than yeah i would say its too low. This is because the way AF is calculated (%bets+%raises)/(%calls)This means that with an aggression factor of 2.0, you're betting/raising half the time, and calling the other half. you need to be betting and raising mostly and not callin as much. I suspect this may because of you're downswing though? sometimes i get scared to raise when things just wont go my way...

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Play NL.Don't have to worry about losing 150 BB downswings.NL NL NL.Did I mention NL?
PL owns, I'll explain why - fish can't go all in pf with AK, QQ or JJ, and can't go all in with flush or straight draw on flop. Less variance more $$ 8)
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Play NL.Don't have to worry about losing 150 BB downswings.NL NL NL.Did I mention NL?
uhh yeah, there's no varience at all in NL, nope non at all (Major SW)
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wrto.. just quit raising with KJos from UTG, that should clear up your problem ya fish :D
This isn't even a joke, bro. I actually thought about giving up the game. But I hear 150BB downswings aren't even the worse you go through. yay...
yeah I'm o a 80 BB downswing the past three days, and my pt stats are 16 V$Pip 9% PFR 2.4 aggro in 7 K hadns at 2/4. So I go play Omaha 8 and get cold decked there too. All of my lows get counterfeited or quartered right now :evil: . But it isn't toobad, can you say Poker Bob :wink:
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if you telling loosehole or whatever his name was to 3 bet it with 22...i forgot to quote him, my bad.  I don't think the aggressive factor is too low...it all really depends.  are you including preflop numbers??  On pokertracker, the default is to not include it.  Including pf numbers my aggression factor is 2.3 but without its 3.9 (im an aggressive mofo)if its nots counting pf numbers than yeah i would say its too low.  This is because the way AF is calculated (%bets+%raises)/(%calls)This means that with an aggression factor of 2.0, you're betting/raising half the time, and calling the other half.  you need to be betting and raising mostly and not callin as much.  I suspect this  may because of you're downswing though? sometimes i get scared to raise when things just wont go my way...
Just wanted to point out that a post-flop aggression factor of 2.0 means you're betting and raising 2/3 of the time and calling 1/3 of the time. Stuff I have read seems to indicate that a post-flop aggression factor of 2 is OK, and above 3 is very good. Below 2 (like my 1.44) indicates maybe a little too much weak-tight play after the flop. (I'm working on it.)wrto, it looks like you're playing a pretty solid game overall, and just getting cold cards. I went through a 100 BB+ downswing recently at 2/4 (well, some was at 1/2 because I moved down -- I had just started playing 2/4 and wasn't sure if I was getting cold cards or just not playing a solid enough game). It sucks, but I assume you're properly bankrolled, and if you keep playing your game your way, then eventually, you'll be back on top of things. Of course, I'm basing that on a pretty small sample set -- maybe you DO suck, but somehow I doubt that. ;-)
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