Swift_Psycho 1 Posted April 4, 2005 Share Posted April 4, 2005 So what ARE the chances that I've got the best hand here? I honestly thought that adding all the variables together it was greater than 5-1.Well if they were greater, you shoulda called. Link to post Share on other sites
SplashMaster 0 Posted April 6, 2005 Share Posted April 6, 2005 Why didn't you move in on the flop?.your raise on the flop was too small. when he bets 45 cents make it $3.45. that will make it incorrect to draw for a flush.I just don't understand making it THAT much. Don't I want to keep Ax around? By the turn I should have a very good read of exactly what he has, but if I raise 3 dollars, it's essentially raising all in. That's half my opponent's stack. Shouldn't the big bet here come at the turn?I don't know, instinctually I think I should be getting more than this 1.80 pot with AQ, and I know from experience that a 3 dollar reraise makes people go away or raise all-in. The only hands that will raise all in are hands that I'm 50-50 with or even behind, unless it is exactly Q8 or A8. We're 5 handed. Not full ring. I can't keep raising 3 dollars every time. Even just on the flop, the odds are that he does not have a draw, he has something else, and I don't want to lose the action. Why not let him hang himself here? I'm not folding AQ on the flop, that's pretty obvious. People in this game have no idea that you can actually call with nothing. Remember that they had to call a raise preflop: it's a lot MORE likely just on the flop that they have Ax than it is a flush draw. I can see making it something like 1.75, but a 3 dollar raise chases away all my action. And I can't bluff that much money, so when I do my normal betting the pot after the flop when any reasonable card hits, people are going to start calling more often because "Well, when he had something really good he raised a lot more". AQ is a monster. I'm not against AA or 88 or QQ very often at all, there's no reason why I need to find out where I am. If I'm not ahead I'm willing to double someone up. But I need to play to their chip stacks.In a full ring game, it's different. But short handed, you NEED to steal pots, even against passive players. You need to raise preflop with KQ and put in a flop sized bet when an ace shows up if it's checked back to you. You can't afford to give away monsters, and when you hit one, why should you play it fast just because there are draws, when it is more likely that the callers have pairs and not draws? What kind of hand could they have at the flop after the small bet? Sure, they could have 8-9 of hearts, or J10, and if they have AK or A8 I'm getting there money anyway, but that still leaves KQ, AJ, A10, A9, A7, KQ, or someone being irrational with an 8 or another queen. Or an inside straight draw, but I'd think 1.25 should be enough to make inside straight draws fold.Everyone knows a bet is coming at the turn, so the flush/straight draw is only getting one card unless he wants to be silly and risk half a big chunk of his stack if he misses his draw. And just because he makes his draw doesn't mean he's getting all my chips either.I don't get what type of price I'd need. If he bet all of his chips, I'm getting the insinuation that I'd still have to call getting more than 3 to 1 on my money. With a small bet, I am MORE SURE that I am beat. And it fits with the rest of his pattern, the way he's been playing within the hour. And his calls and bets have basically been SCREAMING flush. Ax doesn't make sense in this instance with a player who has just been playing so tight and knows that I have a big hand. It doesn't make sense to call a two dollar bet on the turn and then bet half of your remaining stack with Ax. The small bet on the flop doesn't make sense with Ax. And the quick calling, the entire thing just doesn't make sense with Ax. Plus, the difference between 7.35 and 5.35 is a lot bigger than 9.35 and 7.35 when the average stack is 7.50.It's not like I'm gonna fold every time I get AQ and hit two pairs. I'm not asking that. I just don't know how to apply enough pressure in a short handed game without giving too much away. The books certainly don't say to raise the pot that much. And short handed I can't just wait for hands and win big pots with big hands, because I simply don't have enough time. I'm just sort of confused as to why you'd want to bet so much on the flop. With the amount of information and tells that I had over watching the game for an hour, and considering my stack size, what IS the right price to fold my hand?you have said the flop was 3 wayyou must make a decent raise to get the third player out if he is on a drawif your remaining player has ax and is not a good player, he will call you anyway.why did you ask for advice?I would have never folded your hand in 10,000,000,000 years on the river for the record Link to post Share on other sites
MasterLJ 0 Posted April 6, 2005 Share Posted April 6, 2005 I don't mind the fact that you find x A Q scary when holding AQ, but I do have a problem with the fact that you feel it's a scary flop, and yet still play it to a raise pre-flop. Think ahead at the possible flops that you'd play it for, if AAQ/AQQ are the only flops you would feel confident about winning a hand with, perhaps you should just fold it pre-flop to any raise. Link to post Share on other sites
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