jsull 0 Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 Late in day1A of the PCA this hand came up, and I still don't know what I really should have done here. I just got moved to this table about 15 hands before this hand. Blinds were 400/800/100 . UTG+1 limps (who two hands prior limped, and got spanked by somebody that raised him afterward) , UTG+2 (a solid professional) raises to 3500. I'm in MP, and I call the 3500 with JJ. Folds back to UTG+1 (limper), and he reraises all-in (approximately 35-40K), UTG+2 folds, and it comes back to me. limp/reraiser was NOT the typical player at the PCA. about 50ish, looking disoriented, kinda like doc brown in the Back to the Future movies, ya know?? He didn't seem like he really knew what he was doing, but like I said I'd only been there about an orbit and a half.If I call here, it's my tournament life, as I only have about 26K after the call of the original raise. What do you do here? Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 1 Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 Fold. Fairly easily IMO. Link to post Share on other sites
Highlow16 0 Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 Fold Link to post Share on other sites
darkrider88 0 Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 My instinct here is to fold. You have to figure you are up against a big pair about 70% of the time (making you 20% to win), maybe AK suited 20% of the time (you are about 50% to win) , and a lower pair / bluff 10% of the time (you are about 80% to win).The pot is 39,500, and you need to call 26,000, giving you about 1.5 to 1. In other words, if you can win more than 40% of the time, it is a good call.Using the range I listed above:70% (.20)+20%(.50)+10%(.8)= 32%Clear fold.If we were to loosen our range to 60% high pair, 30% high cards, and 10% bluff/lower pair, then we are onlyu 35% to win, and those are very loose odds. Easy fold. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 Putting him on this range: TT+,AKs,AKo gives you a slight EV edge and an arguable call, if hes any tighter its a clear fold.He's limp/reraised a known pro, and you think he's somewhat out of his comfort zone in this tourney. Is someone who is shaky going to limp reraise a pro? He's either got a monster, or he thinks the pro is trying to take it away from him..you dont know for sure. What tips the balance? Your call. He now has to worry about two players, one who called the known pro after a raise. I think he has a hand and Id fold. Link to post Share on other sites
tskillz187 0 Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 Pretty easy fold to me. He has to think that the pro has a hand and even if he sucks, JJ is sooooooooo vulnerable. I don't want to get all in for my tournamnet life on day 1 with JJ. Especially with your stack, you have plenty of time left still. Link to post Share on other sites
darkrider88 0 Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 copernicus,I don't think calculating his range by using something like pokerstove is really unfair here. Pokerstove figures out how many ways you could have each hand and does a weighted average. I think the way I did above probably gives a clearer picture, since he is much more likely to have an overpair than AK (which is not evident in your calculations). Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted January 13, 2007 Share Posted January 13, 2007 copernicus,I don't think calculating his range by using something like pokerstove is really unfair here. Pokerstove figures out how many ways you could have each hand and does a weighted average. I think the way I did above probably gives a clearer picture, since he is much more likely to have an overpair than AK (which is not evident in your calculations).It has nothing to do with pokerstove, its just doing the structured hand analysis you should be doing in your head anyway. If you think AK should be weighted less, you can do that in pokerstove also, though it isnt necessary, since thats obviously a tighter range than I had and makes it an easy fold. Link to post Share on other sites
jsull 0 Posted January 14, 2007 Author Share Posted January 14, 2007 OK, so the consensus here is to fold...... Interesting....I had a discussion with the pro about this hand after the day ended, and it is their belief that there's no way he's got AA or KK here. If he did, he wouldn't re-raise so much as to push us away. He's going to re-raise to about 10k or that range. That argument makes sense, but how many times have we seen this move (such an over the top reraise) online with AA or KK? Plenty of times (matter of fact I just witnessed KK do this). Because it gets called so many times online. Or is this just a squeeze?FWIW, I did fold the hand after deliberating for about 3 minutes. Considering where I was at that point in the tournament, I figured I had enough wiggle room to play some more the next day, and get all my chips in the middle in a better spot. It's the "what if" that gets me thinking.... Raising the pro was also an option too, but knowing how vunerable JJ is, I didn't want to push it. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted January 14, 2007 Share Posted January 14, 2007 OK, so the consensus here is to fold...... Interesting....I had a discussion with the pro about this hand after the day ended, and it is their belief that there's no way he's got AA or KK here. If he did, he wouldn't re-raise so much as to push us away. He's going to re-raise to about 10k or that range. That argument makes sense, but how many times have we seen this move (such an over the top reraise) online with AA or KK? Plenty of times (matter of fact I just witnessed KK do this). Because it gets called so many times online. Or is this just a squeeze?FWIW, I did fold the hand after deliberating for about 3 minutes. Considering where I was at that point in the tournament, I figured I had enough wiggle room to play some more the next day, and get all my chips in the middle in a better spot. It's the "what if" that gets me thinking.... Raising the pro was also an option too, but knowing how vunerable JJ is, I didn't want to push it.and since the villain seems like an online qualifier (or was everyone an online qualifier?) an online move like that isnt that farfetched, especially if he is afraid of playing post flop against the pro. Link to post Share on other sites
Jam-Fly 8 Posted January 15, 2007 Share Posted January 15, 2007 Imo, this play is AK.It's scary the amt of times the guy has exactly AK. I've never played a 10k buy in, but I have played medium buy ins (100-500) with deep structures and this move is AK just so often. Link to post Share on other sites
jsull 0 Posted January 16, 2007 Author Share Posted January 16, 2007 Imo, this play is AK.It's scary the amt of times the guy has exactly AK. I've never played a 10k buy in, but I have played medium buy ins (100-500) with deep structures and this move is AK just so often.After discussion with the pro, that's what I really put him on.The pro said they folded AQ, so there's a little less likelyhood of AA or QQ if that is the case. However, AK sounds very plausible here. Either way, it certainly shows the power of the all-in move.I think I'm still happy with my fold, because even vs AK with the AQ dead, I'm still not even 60/40. I'm happy with my end result of the tournament too, which may not have happened had I not folded here. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted January 16, 2007 Share Posted January 16, 2007 After discussion with the pro, that's what I really put him on.The pro said they folded AQ, so there's a little less likelyhood of AA or QQ if that is the case. However, AK sounds very plausible here. Either way, it certainly shows the power of the all-in move.I think I'm still happy with my fold, because even vs AK with the AQ dead, I'm still not even 60/40. I'm happy with my end result of the tournament too, which may not have happened had I not folded here.If you knew it was AK and that AQ mucked would you fold? Link to post Share on other sites
X ima splasher X 0 Posted January 17, 2007 Share Posted January 17, 2007 Lay her down Link to post Share on other sites
SlackerInc 0 Posted January 17, 2007 Share Posted January 17, 2007 If you knew it was AK and that AQ mucked would you fold?I wouldn't. I'll take a "coin flip" weighted toward me, with extra money in the pot, every time (except certain bubble situations of course). Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted January 18, 2007 Share Posted January 18, 2007 I wouldn't. I'll take a "coin flip" weighted toward me, with extra money in the pot, every time (except certain bubble situations of course).My point exactly! (at this stage of the tourney anyway) Link to post Share on other sites
throwemaway 0 Posted January 18, 2007 Share Posted January 18, 2007 Well he didn't know at that time that AQ was dealt..But if he somehow did, then folding would be pretty bad if he really, really did think it was AK..Passing up a 60/40 with dead money in the pot is pretty stupid, especially in a good field Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted January 18, 2007 Share Posted January 18, 2007 Who hates reraising pf? Link to post Share on other sites
krup24 0 Posted January 18, 2007 Share Posted January 18, 2007 Who hates reraising pf?I like it. Especially in position on the pro. Repop preflop to say $8800 could've been the play. Link to post Share on other sites
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