shpaget 0 Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 Both these situations occurred to people I know twice in the last month....I'm curiuos about the odds - I've tried calculating them myself, and though the numbers seem to make sense, I don't know if I'm way off base or not.Situation A:Poker dealer flops AAA.Then proceeds to do so twice more in the next two hours or so.Figuring this occurred over the course of 120 hands (and probably less)....what are the odds of flopping AAA three times in that span?I'm coming up with about 200000:1.Situation B:Player had AA, all-in preflop, lost to a royal flush....for a ten-handed table, I'm getting 2.5 million:1 for you to have AA, and someone else to get a royal by the river.Then had it happened to him again less than an hour later.So, what are the odds of this happening twice in, say, 100 hands.I'm coming up with about a billion to 1.Thanks Link to post Share on other sites
Abbaddabba 0 Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 About as rare as having a 6 2 K flop followed by a 9 Q Q flop followed by a 3 A 5 flop all in one session. Link to post Share on other sites
shpaget 0 Posted January 2, 2007 Author Share Posted January 2, 2007 About as rare as having a 6 2 K flop followed by a 9 Q Q flop followed by a 3 A 5 flop all in one session.Very true - just your flops don't open the door for a bad beat jackpot the way AAA does. But thanks for the Microsoft answer.Likewise:7h3s5c9d2h is just as rare as AhKhQhJhTh - so why is one more valuable than the other? Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 For A, there are 4 ways to choose a AAA flop, one for each A we don't select.The probability of a given flop being AAA is:p = 4 / (52 choose 3) = 0.000180995475The probability of this happening three times is p^3 for a given three deals. There are 120 deals and we can select three of them in 120 choose 3 ways. The other 117 times we deal not AAA. (This part doesn't make much difference; it's 98%)(120 choose 3)p^3(1-p)^117 = 1.6 x 10^-6So yeah, 600,000:1. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted January 2, 2007 Share Posted January 2, 2007 About as rare as having a 6 2 K flop followed by a 9 Q Q flop followed by a 3 A 5 flop all in one session.Not really. There are 16 times as many 3 A 5 flops as AAA flops. Link to post Share on other sites
MasterLJ 0 Posted January 3, 2007 Share Posted January 3, 2007 Not really. There are 16 times as many 3 A 5 flops as AAA flops.Not if you get specific with suit. Link to post Share on other sites
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