Is This Variance Rearing Its Ugly Head? Advice Please.

[ChckRzr 0]

In the last little while I've been crushing the $11+1 (and sometimes $22+2) turbo SnG on Full Tilt. Sharkscope had my ROI as high at 31% at one point. It felt like I couldn't lose. Now thats all I've been doing. It feels like the cards aren't coming like they used to, and when I get my money in with the good cards I do get, I'm beat by the river. I've cashed probably twice (both 3rd place) in my last 22 games. Is this just the nature of turbo SnGs? Whats the longest downswing you've experienced in SnGs, and what turned it around? (Sharkscope has tracked ~600 games.)Thanks guys.

[rogerwilco 0]

I'm just breaking even in my last 50 sngs, although I'm 100% certain that I'm not nearly as bad a player as most of my opponents.2 cashes out of 22 is pretty frustrating, but it's not really shocking to me - I have had several runs of about 10 sngs without cashing.edit: turbo sngs - although I don't really have a big enough sample size, I had much more variance playing turbos than regular stts (and my results were worse too), I'm sure that there is more luck involved in turbos.

[Shizzmoney 0]

I'm sure that there is more luck involved in turbos.

Absolutely, that is why I don't play them. Turbos do benefit those "Kill Phil" players, the MIS (Move-In Specialist) tactic that imploys more preflop play. If you are a good preflop player, these SNGs are for you. The problem is the variance because you often risk your all of your chips so much more, so more bad beats occur (like AK getting cracked by J10, etc).

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

Probably a mix.When I went through a recent downsizing, I did some pretty deep introspection and concluded that 80% of my problem was variance. But to be honest I had to admit that 20% was controllable reaction to the variance. Interestingly when I realized this and eliminated the 20%, the 80% also snapped back into place.

[nutzbuster 7]

Welcome to pokah!Be careful here...don't assume you suddenly suck and then start varying up your game...because then you will be sucking. Take a short break and save you bankroll (and your mind).

[ROGUE06 0]

I'm just breaking even in my last 50 sngs, although I'm 100% certain that I'm not nearly as bad a player as most of my opponents.2 cashes out of 22 is pretty frustrating, but it's not really shocking to me - I have had several runs of about 10 sngs without cashing.edit: turbo sngs - although I don't really have a big enough sample size, I had much more variance playing turbos than regular stts (and my results were worse too), I'm sure that there is more luck involved in turbos.

Back when I first started playing online poker, I mostly played $11 sngs on Party. Roger is right, there will be runs of about 10 sngs where you will not cash. My longest has been 11. However my longest cash streak has been 9. variance will occur in these sngs, especially the turbos. Just drop down in limits if you continue to run bad. Also take a break and reananalyze your game.

[terradawg 0]

you sound like you have the same problem as i do. for me, variance doesn't even itself out in the short term, i.e. i don't win half of my coin flips over a week. i either lose them all or win them all. i had a great november, and then, up until two days ago, hadn't hardly won a single race for the first part of december. over the last few days i can't seem to lose a race. makes the downswings really painful and the upswings great.

[ghostlove 0]

i know how u feel. i was on a hot streak recently and yesterday it all went wrong lol

[dlingdling 0]

i know how u feel. i was on a hot streak recently and yesterday it all went wrong lol

Same here. no cashes my last 8 SNGs. Intellectually, I know a streak like that can easily happen, but it wreaks havoc on my ego.

[ChckRzr 0]

For those out there who play turbos, you know that there is a lot of open shoving when blinds are high. Shoving standards vary player to player, usually any ace or any small pair. In cases when someone open shoves and you look down at AK, AQ, AJ, even A- 10 are you auto calling? I know that I am. In fact I probably never fold AJ or better when a short stack open shoves (maybe thats my leak?)The thing is, if you're up against live cards you're not a huge favorite, and a small dog against an under pair obviously. I encounter this a lot when the short stack shoves with J 6, 6 5, 10 9 etc. and I call with a big ace and losing a lot or all of my chips.

[ROGUE06 0]

For those out there who play turbos, you know that there is a lot of open shoving when blinds are high. Shoving standards vary player to player, usually any ace or any small pair. In cases when someone open shoves and you look down at AK, AQ, AJ, even A- 10 are you auto calling? I know that I am. In fact I probably never fold AJ or better when a short stack open shoves (maybe thats my leak?)The thing is, if you're up against live cards you're not a huge favorite, and a small dog against an under pair obviously. I encounter this a lot when the short stack shoves with J 6, 6 5, 10 9 etc. and I call with a big ace and losing a lot or all of my chips.

In turbos when blinds get high and the bubble is there or near, you got to be willing to gamble and be auto calling with marginal hands that you hope are better than 50% to win. Not a leak..just know variance can alter your results. Maybe you shouldn't be playing turbos, stick to regular sngs if you believe you are a more skilled player than most.

[Socrates 0]

No, its just a downswing. Learn what variance actually is and then use the buzz word. Do you know the square of the standard deviation for your case?

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

No, its just a downswing. Learn what variance actually is and then use the buzz word. Do you know the square of the standard deviation for your case?

You don't need to do a chi square analysis to use or understand the term "variance"

[Socrates 0]

You don't need to do a chi square analysis to use or understand the term "variance"

The problem is that most people don't understand the term. They don't cash in a few tournaments and attribute it to variance when they have no idea what variance is. Usually the answer is bad play, not variance. Variance occurs in its true form when you make every correct mathematical decision and no errors. Blaming variance for losing is usually jst an excuse to cover bad play. My advice for people wondering about variance is to take a few thousand hands, make sure you've played them all mathematically correct and them determine the variance. its sort of like people saying they got hit with a cooler when they push with 77 and run into 99 - it just isn't the correct term or use of the term.Besides, a chi-square wouldn't provide you with the correct information either. We are not comparing means.

[Dratj 0]

No, its just a downswing. Learn what variance actually is and then use the buzz word. Do you know the square of the standard deviation for your case?

Looks like someone is having a bad day.

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

Looks like someone is having a bad day.

Day?

[betablocker 0]

In the last little while I've been crushing the $11+1 (and sometimes $22+2) turbo SnG on Full Tilt. Sharkscope had my ROI as high at 31% at one point. It felt like I couldn't lose. Now thats all I've been doing. It feels like the cards aren't coming like they used to, and when I get my money in with the good cards I do get, I'm beat by the river. I've cashed probably twice (both 3rd place) in my last 22 games. Is this just the nature of turbo SnGs? Whats the longest downswing you've experienced in SnGs, and what turned it around? (Sharkscope has tracked ~600 games.)Thanks guys.

Read my thread here to see how similar my questions were to yours back in July 2006: http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...p;#entry1201726Here's what I've learned "turbo SNG variance" is variance with a hit of crack. You sound like a very solid player, so you're going to maximize your upswing and hit a crazy ROI of 31% and think all is GOLD, whereas SNG veterans are going to snicker at you. They're absolutely right for snickering, it's impossible to sustain. Even more, turbos are going to compound your downswing, almost to the point of obliterating any ROI and bringing you back to even, more so than it would in regular SNGs because your blitzing through turbos. You have to hang on! Once you push through you'll be able to get somewhere around the 15%-20%, but you'll have to knock out 500 to 1,000.It's peaks and valleys and then subterranean hell and then a massive peak and...this is why I take a beta blocker.Peace.

[ChckRzr 0]

Read my thread here to see how similar my questions were to yours back in July 2006: http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...p;#entry1201726Here's what I've learned "turbo SNG variance" is variance with a hit of crack. You sound like a very solid player, so you're going to maximize your upswing and hit a crazy ROI of 31% and think all is GOLD, whereas SNG veterans are going to snicker at you. They're absolutely right for snickering, it's impossible to sustain. Even more, turbos are going to compound your downswing, almost to the point of obliterating any ROI and bringing you back to even, more so than it would in regular SNGs because your blitzing through turbos. You have to hang on! Once you push through you'll be able to get somewhere around the 15%-20%, but you'll have to knock out 500 to 1,000.It's peaks and valleys and then subterranean hell and then a massive peak and...this is why I take a beta blocker.Peace.

Thanks for the great responses to my question. It really is a reality check. I guess I need to accept that I can't produce those results forever. I can take some consolation in the fact that in the period I ran well, I never once played over my head so I have a decent roll to fall back on. Anyways, I've decided to stop playing turbos......... for now. Like the old joke:Patient: "Doctor, it hurts when I do this."Doctor: "Well, then you shouldn't do that."

[cwik 0]

kinda of a brag post, but I just started playing sng's again, and am killing the 22+2 on Full Tilt (40.33% ROI in just over 50 games) and while I know I can beat these games, I have a feeling varience is gonna come back hard very soon. Kinda sucks when you start on such a hot streak, cause I'll be disapointed when my stats settle back down to reality.

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

...I have a feeling varience is gonna come back hard very soon...

Gambler's Fallacy defined

[coesillian 0]

when I moved up to 10$SnG I winished 2nd twice in a row then didn't cash 21 times in a mix of 5$ and 10$.In about 180 SnG my ROI is about 28%I don't blame variance, I blame myself for tilting so bad.