Jam-Fly 8 Posted December 16, 2006 Share Posted December 16, 2006 PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)UTG (t7871)Hero (t6222)MP1 (t5393)MP2 (t7040)CO (t8012)Button (t3305)SB (t6509)BB (t9240)Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K, T. 1 fold, Hero raises to t600, 3 folds, Button calls t600, 2 folds.Flop: (t1500) 6, J, A(2 players)Hero bets t800, Button raises to t1800,HERO ?I raised the last 2 hands and took the blinds.I am getting 4-1 here with a gut shot and a runner runner flush possibility. I figured this to be 20%. So I'm a 4-1 dog here, assuming he has an ace. So, in the EV sense, is this a break even call ? He has 905 behind him which I will 95% win when I make the draw and probably have to put in on the turn next card anyway.Is there some massive mathematical error I'm not seeing here ? And also, even if a call was the wrong play, was it only slightly wrong ? Coz putting in alot of chips with a gutshot seems very wrongThanks Link to post Share on other sites
IAGTTAYM 0 Posted December 16, 2006 Share Posted December 16, 2006 3305+1400+300 / (3305-1400) = 2.63I think it's a clear fold. If he has an ace, you are about a 4-1 dog. The odds he is giving you are good, but not good enough. Link to post Share on other sites
SBriand 4 Posted December 16, 2006 Share Posted December 16, 2006 I fold and find a better spot. He is pretty much committing himself to this hand. Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted December 16, 2006 Share Posted December 16, 2006 Is there some massive mathematical error I'm not seeing here ? And also, even if a call was the wrong play, was it only slightly wrong ? Coz putting in alot of chips with a gutshot seems very wrongYour math is wrong but your intuition is correct.You compared your odds of improving in two cards with the odds offered you for one card. Link to post Share on other sites
throwemaway 0 Posted December 17, 2006 Share Posted December 17, 2006 Yes this is surely a donkey move if you call..He has at least an ace, which puts you as more than a 4:1 dog...The only example where calling would be close to correct here is, IMO, if stacks were very deep and you had high implied odds for hitting your well hidden draw..Stacks are not deep and you are essentially putting 1/3 of your stack in with 4 outs..I just looked at the hand more closely and realized after raising 2 pots in a row, you opened with K10os in 2nd position..I really, really don't like that...Fold PF Link to post Share on other sites
Jam-Fly 8 Posted December 19, 2006 Author Share Posted December 19, 2006 It was a $4.40 180 that I was playing in. I wanted to play every half decent hand and see if I could out play my opps post flop Link to post Share on other sites
navybuttons 15 Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 It was a $4.40 180 that I was playing in. I wanted to play every half decent hand and see if I could out play my opps post flopoutplaying opponents does not mean winning every hand.calling here is not outplaying your opponent.outplay your opponents in position. Link to post Share on other sites
throwemaway 0 Posted December 19, 2006 Share Posted December 19, 2006 outplaying opponents does not mean winning every hand.calling here is not outplaying your opponent.outplay your opponents in position. TruuuuutthhhhhhhhhhPeople don't fold in 4.40s..Good luck getting someone to lay down TPNK Link to post Share on other sites
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