Monster Ajs Draw

[oldirtyharry 0]

I've seen this move advocated around here a lot, and this is the first time I've ever used this. Is this standard? Too deep? Only push when out of position?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Hero ($68.80)Button ($60.95)SB ($57.90)BB ($79.15)UTG ($56.15)MP ($13.35)Preflop: Hero is CO with J, A. 1 fold, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.Flop: ($2) T, 9, Q(4 players)SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1, BB raises to $5, MP folds, Hero raises to $68.3, SB folds, BB calls $63.30.

[James D 0]

Raise pre-flop imo.There's many ways to play the flop. I like getting aggressive here though, as there's almost no hand that you're a big dog to, but many hands that you can get action from.Obviously you have reads on the table and such, so your shove may well be the perfect move here, but it's not a great +EV move normally, as I think you are potentially losing a lot of value with such a strong hand.Against a tighter table, re-raise to around $18.

[Fupo 0]

I don't like it, mainly because you didn't raise preflop. If you get called in this spot it will very often be by the nuts.

[James D 0]

I don't like it, mainly because you didn't raise preflop. If you get called in this spot it will very often be by the nuts.

Assuming KJs is the nuts at this stage, it's still only a 56% favorite. Without being at the table to establish specific reads/general trends, yes... there is more value to get out of this hand other than shoving. - but the argument for shoving is one that technically on the flop all we have is A high, with 2 raises (and call from first bet) behind us. We still need to improve, however massively draw heavy our hand is. If the turn is a complete blank, it can get tricky. By shoving, we get more than the correct fold equity to either ensure the pot there, or, if called have a ton of outs to make our hand.

[simo_8ball 0]

Raise preflop for value.Bet pot on the flop. $1 is too small.Make a smaller sized reraise or just call. Shoving for $68 is waaaaay too much.

[David_Nicoson 1]

I count $9 in the pot.If we are called, we're mostly going to be in the 60-40 to 40-60 range. We're crushing a smaller flush draw with no pair, but I think we've raised that hand out.By pulling some numbers out of my butt, I can arrive at 47% equity if called.

Hand   Equity  Likely  Partial Eq.fl dr   0.85	0.03	0.0255Set	 0.40	0.25	0.1000Pair	0.50	0.40	0.2000Str8	0.44	0.32	0.1408-------------------------------				   1	0.4663

If we're called, there's $2 preflop + $68.30 x 2 + 1 = $139.60 in the pot. We get 46.6% of that or $65.10. We're investing $63.30, so we show a small profit ($1.80) over folding.How often do we get a fold here? Pretty often, I imagine. Our villain has a good enough hand to raise, so we'll figure he mostly has top pair or better. Figure we force a fold 80% of the time. In those cases, we win $9.That puts our total profit for this move at (0.20)($1.80) + (.80)($9) = $7.56If we flat call, then we keep our equity in the pot. We spend $4 for about 50% equity in a $14 pot or $7. That's a net $3 over folding.If we raise something more conservative, our opponent can call with a looser range. We might even keep the other player.This may be hubris on my part, but I think I can make more money by playing the next two streets.

Edited December 6, 2006 by David_Nicoson

[No_Neck 0]

I think this move is more for a decent sized pot, you still have a ton of outs though so you can't ever fold. I personally would have called having position and what not...

[Whiskey16 1]

I agree we should raise PF in position with one limper.As played, I don't mind getting my money in on the flop, but we don't need to flip a coin for our stack if we don't need to. I can see merit both in calling the raise, or re-raising to 18-20, but we want to build the pot, considering our likely outs, not just force a fold. Re-raising to 18 gives him reasonable odds to call, and if he pushes over us, we're not out of line calling, as we're likely a coin flip, but if he smooth calls, and pushes a blank on the turn, we can still get away with our stack.

[pokerplayer24 0]

Easy raise preflop.On the flop making it 18ish is a little better then overbettign huge I think but its still perfectly fine since you dont really mind gettign it all in vs any hand.

[Zach6668 513]

So, I've seen a lot of these posts with the overbet shovel with a huge draw.Obviously we have the equity to do this vs most hands, but my problem with this is that when we do shove, we pretty much limit the hands that call us to those that have our equity at the lowest.I really prefer a normal reraise here to price him in with anything. As stated earlier, if he shoves, we have an easy call.Does the value in taking down this small pot right now make this attractive enough to the point where we are pretty much only getting called by a set or a straight?

[benhoug 0]

I've seen this move advocated around here a lot, and this is the first time I've ever used this. Is this standard?

Not standard at all. Raise p/f. As played, raise flop to 15 or 20ish. no reason to push here, you've got a very strong hand, you want action.

[fckthis 0]

Not standard at all. Raise p/f. As played, raise flop to 15 or 20ish. no reason to push here, you've got a very strong DRAW, you want action.

FYPRather take it down with nothing but a draw. Thats the reason we push.

[No_Neck 0]

I would agree if it was raised to $5 preflop with 4 callers. Then the pot being at $20 it would be worth making a move like this.

[MasterLJ 0]

Not raising pf was a big mistake. Raising allows you to push on the flop and have more fold equity.Anyway, you're probably ahead of a large portion of villain's hands... but then again, you haven't defined their hand at all, so who knows?

[DonkSlayer 1]

I don't like it. You're drawing less huge than it may seem at first.

[tapeworm 0]

By pulling some numbers out of my butt, I can arrive at 47% equity if called.

I think your analysis is pretty much spot on. I tried messing around with this hand on this poker calculator I just found called at www.pokerlama.com. I was getting about 50% equity, and either above(in our favor) or below depending on how many of the weaker hands I put in. A random sample of opoonents hands, for example...http://www.pokerlama.com/#g~h!p~4!...!b~Ts_9d_QdI agree with your conclusion that we can likely outplay our opponent if we see more streets, since we have such a strong draw and may not really want our opponents to fold weaker, yet made hands.