andy beal accepts challenge

[Erik67 0]

Go Andy!!!!!!!!!

How can you root for a billionaire? Life hasn't been good enough to him?

I forgot how bad a life the pros have What's that got to do with who I root for? Is being a billionare a bad thing? Besides, life is good for him because he saw an opportunity and had the balls to grab it. Doyle and the other players breached the trust about not discussing the game in public and Andy called them out on it. In one of Doyle's letters he apologized for it. Why would you apologize for something that didn't happen? I don't think they want to admit that an "amateur" gave them everything they could handle and maybe more. If they were killing the guy as bad as they claim, they should just play the original stakes that Andy proposed and ban the players that ran their mouths? Oh I forgot, Todd Brunson was one of the offenders.

[faketree 0]

I posted this in a previous thread having to do with Beal and the freezeout which could shed some light on why he wants things a certain way. Here it is....

I didn't know too much about Andy Beal except that he was a billionaire and he owned a very successful bank in Dallas, TX. Well, that changed last night when I read a pretty good biography about him. Turns out he is an absolute math genius. So much so that he tried to simplify Fermat's last Theorum (or conjecture). It is impossible to try and explain what this is, but let me just say that it took hundreds of years for someone to come up with a proof for this theorum. On his way through this, he discovered a different conjecture based on this theorum. He has put up $100,000 to anyone who can prove or disprove his conjecture. Needless to say, this man is very smart. He is known for taking, what would seem, high risk business endeavours. But if you ask him if it is high risk, he will say not in the slightest. He's spent enormous amounts of time calculating this risk/reward situations and basing business decisions off of that. This could be what Sklansky meant by him thinking Andy had his computers working double time to come up with certain algorithms for limit poker. It appears that Andy believes he is close to cracking some sort of hidden mathematics involved in poker with combinations of number theory and game theory and whatever else he has at his disposal. Quite possibly just heads-up limit poker. Being a math nut myself, I find this whole experiment incredibly fascinating and, to me at least, it has become more than just the biggest poker game in history. It could become one of the biggest mathematical breakthoughs of my lifetime. If anyone else is interesting in reading about Andy, I suggest you google search and read everything you can. He is quite an interesting individual

I'd also check out this thread for a post the Absolute put in about game theory and Beal. Very interesting.http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...t=7943&start=65

[dna4ever 2]

Another thing I wonder and maybe Daniel has some insight in this?How are the poker players bankrolling this? Pitching in their own money? Would all 16 people on the list put in 2.5 million each or would only the 6 people that played put in 6.7 million each?Either way that is a lot of money even for these players bankrolls. If it is the 16 way action how would you feel having someone else play with 2.5 million of your money knowing you were either gonna double up or go bust.

[faketree 0]

Another thing I wonder and maybe Daniel has some insight in this?How are the poker players bankrolling this? Pitching in their own money? Would all 16 people on the list put in 2.5 million each or would only the 6 people that played put in 6.7 million each?Either way that is a lot of money even for these players bankrolls. If it is the 16 way action how would you feel having someone else play with 2.5 million of your money knowing you were either gonna double up or go bust.

I don't know the entire logistics and I'd bet most people don't. But I've heard they are putting up money and they also have investors putting in some money as well.

[deviper 0]

At worst I see andy as breaking even here where as the pros run the risk of losing alot. Granted, if they think they have an edge, I suppose they should take it. Its a nice free-roll for andy however.

I no its 40 mil but i dont think the pros are loosing that much because i think they all just put up 5mil each. so there really only putting up 5mil to win alot more. But i dont like the fact that the pros can only win 8mil and then have to switch wit someoneelce. I think that they should be able to pull out at anytime.

[TS Clark 0]

Beal's deal sounds like a good one. He gave ground on most of what Doyle asked for, so for Brunson and rest to NOT do this is going to strike a lot of people as purely "chicken."As much as some of the pros ran their mouths about Beal when they first played, it is definitely put up or shut up time for them.I think this game would be fantastic for poker as a whole. I really hope the pros cowboy up and take him on.

[kindofblu 0]

The pros won't accept Louisiana...They want to play in Vegas because, well, what are they gonna do the rest of the day? Andy says he needs to be near his home because he has a job...well, so do they.

Yeah, so do they. Theirs is playing poker. To that end, they play in tourneys all over the world for WAY less thatn 40 mil. What possible objection could they have to going to Louisiana to play in the largest documented cash game in history? Sheesh.

These guy make their living off cash games, not tournaments. And its not my opinion that they don't want to play anywhere but Vegas. Doyle insisted on this in his original reply to the challenge.

[21gambit 0]

If they each put up 5 mil then they each stand to gain 5 mil, not "alot more"

[offsuitbluff 0]

whats the location really matter?

[dna4ever 2]

whats the location really matter?

besides the 'home field advantage' this could go on for weeks or possibly months, 5 - 7 days a week. Would you want to be away from home that long?

[offsuitbluff 0]

well its just like going away to school. I am away from home that long.And for 40million it shouldn't be a huge deal

[ElToasto 0]

This game would be such a publicity stunt for the poker world. If a game like this were to take place at such high stakes any business enterprise that profits from poker i.e. casinos, online sites, television, etc. would benefit from this game. The attention brought to poker would be unbeleivable. I wouldn't be surprised if the pros could get most of that 40 mil from different investors. Kinda like paying for advertisement for any large sporting event.

[SuperNashwan 0]

Anyone know why Daniel isn't in the group of players taking Beal on?

[DCWildcat 0]

Andy comes off as a rich egotistical punk to me. I don't generally like the idea of rooting against somebody, but that's what I'll do here.

[Random Fluke 0]

Anyone know why Daniel isn't in the group of players taking Beal on?

Maybe he doesn't want to put up 5 mill in a match where he knows the pros don't have that much of an edge. Beal is one of the best limit players in the world. I'm sure Daniel would have an edge over Beal, but no one has a big edge over Beal, in the end variance could easily win this thing for either side, rather than skill.

[rog 0]

I dont think variance is going to win this. The betting structure is 30k/60k, climbing conditionally to as much as 100k/200k. So, at the upper end, the stake is 200BB. That is generally considered a variance tolerant bankroll is it not? At the lower end it's more like 700BB, which should be nearly variance-proof.Rog

[Swift_Psycho 1]

I dont think variance is going to win this.  The betting structure is 30k/60k, climbing conditionally to as much as 100k/200k.  So, at the upper end, the stake is 200BB.  That is generally considered a variance tolerant bankroll is it not?  At the lower end it's more like 700BB, which should be nearly variance-proof.Rog

Actually, the highest limit they are going to is 50k/100k. Beal originally wanted 100k/200k, but the pros declined. This actually help your argument though, so therefore I am not here to disagree, just to correct you.

[BuzzWorthy 0]

The pros won't accept Louisiana...They want to play in Vegas because, well, what are they gonna do the rest of the day?  Andy says he needs to be near his home because he has a job...well, so do they.

Their 'job' IS playing games like this... they'll go wherever the money is. Andy's job (NOT being related to poker) requires him to be accountable to others during business hours - I think they can come to Louisiana for $40 million.

[Abbaddabba 0]

Variance-proof? Right. It might not be the sole determining factor, but it will contribute to the outcome. Constructing a confidence interval for your standard BB rule isn't applied in the same way when it's both heads up (freeze out), and there is an extremely marginal difference in skill. I find it difficult to understand the motive of either side. Publicity seems plausible for both. It wouldn't suprise me if they were making money off endorsements on the side, though (or tv contracts).Beal's time is likely worth more than what he'd make even supposing he did have a positive EV, however marginal. For a billionaire, he's probably nearly risk neutral for this size of a buy in - though still not entirely. There must be some benefit (tangible or otherwise) that he gains from doing this. I doubt that any pro is neutral to a 5mill buy-in with a hypothetical dead even EV. They obviously expect a positive EV, but I dont think anyone looking at the situation objectively could justify that marginal an increase in EV for that large a risk, and that much time spent (for the individual actually playing). I also wouldn't believe for a second that it's being done 'for the love of the game'.

[bmwguy525 0]

Do you guys not read???? Doyle selects FIVE of the listed players, not six, not sixteen, FIVE. They each front the 8 mil, from whatever source they get it from, and FIVE of them play one man, at given times. FIIIIIIIIVE. THAT'S IT. FIVE.

[UglyJimStudly 0]

Anyone know why Daniel isn't in the group of players taking Beal on?

It looks like Beal is gunning for people who (he claims) have been exaggerating their success against them. So it might be as simple as DN not being one of the pros who's been telling tales out of school, at least in Beal's mind.

[Abbaddabba 0]

Err... about the variance thing.The thing is, it's still true that for an identical number of hands, your certainty of avoiding "going broke" with a marginally positive EV is roughly the same. When +ev play is so marginal, though, you're going to be (expecting to) play far more hands.Suppose you have a one tailed test, 98% certain that you wont go broke, with a given expected return. edit: deleted the first exampleHere's a better example:Your certainty of not going broke in 100 hands is quite high in a dead even EV game with a standard bankroll-bb ratio. Your certainty of the next 100 hands is also quite high. Your certainty of not going broke for both of those 100 hands together is slightly lower. Your certainty of not going broke for an infinite series of hands with a dead even EV game is exactly 50%. Now suppose your certainty for the same situation, but with a high +EV. For 100 hands, with that same br-bb ratio is high. For 200 hands, there are two conflicting results. First, your probability of going broke increases because there are more hands, but it decreases because your high EV will almost certainly increase your br over the course of the first 100 hands. If the EV is high enough, it will dominate the effect of an increased number of hands. What im suggesting is that the ev advantage that the pro's have will not be sufficiently large to make the risk comparable to a typical br-bb ratio for a good player playing at a low limit table.