Deal Or No Deal Ii

[Actuary 3]

Someone convince me that picking a case out and setting it beside the contestant, makes any difference?Is it not the same as leaving all the cases up there ?At first, I assumed the contestant would be able to say "I want my Case" at some point. For example at some point when Banker gives them a bad deal; they can opt to pick their case and settle for whatever it is.give any reasons to support the selection of a case and putting it to the sidethanks.

[pokerkid 0]

Maybe because they're allowed to swtich their case with the one remaining case at the end and it becomes a big monty hall problem?

[Actuary 3]

Maybe because they're allowed to swtich their case with the one remaining case at the end and it becomes a big monty hall problem?

lol.ok.. good joke

[fatman 1]

Someone convince me that picking a case out and setting it beside the contestant, makes any difference?Is it not the same as leaving all the cases up there ?At first, I assumed the contestant would be able to say "I want my Case" at some point. For example at some point when Banker gives them a bad deal; they can opt to pick their case and settle for whatever it is.give any reasons to support the selection of a case and putting it to the sidethanks.

That is one of the worst shows on television. Howie Mandel is an idiot...but not as bad as the people they have on that show.

[MrB 0]

It results in better television viewing.

[Actuary 3]

It results in better television viewing.

yeah, I agree that may be the only reason.Wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything

[pokerkid 0]

lol.ok.. good joke

Please, (gently) remind me why what I said was so dumb?

[Actuary 3]

Please, (gently) remind me why what I said was so dumb?

oh, sorry.I thought you were kiddingWe had a big thread and debated whether or not Deal or No Deal had a Monty Hall element. It doesn't because no one who knows ahead of time selects the 3rd to last case, and thus reveals more about the other case on stage. In Deal or no deal, the information from revealing that 3rd to last case is equaly applied to both remaining cases....so I thought you were trying to rib me. carry on.

[freak2304 0]

That is one of the worst shows on television. Howie Mandel is an idiot...but not as bad as the people they have on that show.

this may be true, but can anyone guess howie mandel's age without googling it? That's the real question.

[Actuary 3]

this may be true, but can anyone guess howie mandel's age without googling it? That's the real question.

58

[freak2304 0]

not quite that old, but in the 50's.

[Actuary 3]

not quite that old, but in the 50's.

I remember him from... what was it "Make Me Laugh?"with the blow up rubber glove gag.no one could hold backI assumed he was about 25 in that..and I thought it was 30 or so years..yeah... I added a couple extra yrs to fit inline with the idea he looks young

[Fubar The Sperm 1]

The whole point of picking a case is so you get the whole, "did you make a good deal or a bad one." Say you don't pick a case and you get to the point where there are 5 cases left. If you take the bankers offer then there is nothing to compare it to. When you choose a case and you take the deal with 5 cases left we get to see if all along they had that million bucks or 1 cent. It adds to the drama.

[Dogpatch 2]

It makes them feel special?Sorry, that's all I got.

[freak2304 0]

BTW. The correct answer. 51. 51 is the correct answer.

[Dogpatch 2]

BTW. The correct answer. 51. 51 is the correct answer.

I thought it was 42.

[Actuary 3]

The whole point of picking a case is so you get the whole, "did you make a good deal or a bad one." Say you don't pick a case and you get to the point where there are 5 cases left. If you take the bankers offer then there is nothing to compare it to. When you choose a case and you take the deal with 5 cases left we get to see if all along they had that million bucks or 1 cent. It adds to the drama.

yeah, but they rattle off all the intermittent "deals" so it's not like the person had to select all the other cases if they hadn't stopped.I see the jist of your point though

[Morphii 0]

It is called deal or no deal, the banker wants to buy your case for amount less than what is mathematically correct.IF you don't pick a case you have nothing to bargain with. THERE WOULD BE NO SHOW AND YOU DON'T HAVE TO START THIS STUPID THREAD.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

Someone convince me that picking a case out and setting it beside the contestant, makes any difference?Is it not the same as leaving all the cases up there ?At first, I assumed the contestant would be able to say "I want my Case" at some point. For example at some point when Banker gives them a bad deal; they can opt to pick their case and settle for whatever it is.give any reasons to support the selection of a case and putting it to the sidethanks.

Okay. I'm taking your question very seriously.Very seriously. I have not read any of the responses.They can opt to pick their case and settle for whatever it is, but only when they're down to two cases left, and not until then. At that point, if there's $1 million and $1 remaining, the bankers offer will be around the average of the two - about $500,000. And it's up to the contestant as to whether or not they want to gamble. They would have a guaranteed $500,000 and a coin flip bet to win or lose about $500,000.Actually, from what I remember, the offer would be a little more than the average at this point - like $550,000. So you'd be betting $549,000 to win $450,000 more on a 50/50 chance of winning. The $550,000 deal should be taken, in this case. Another scenario to consider is that the contestant is down to four cases left. And the prize amounts remaining are $1 million, $750,000, $500,000, and $1. And you're given a banker's offer to drop out of $550,000 (which is close to an average of the three amounts). Should you take the offer of $550,000? Should you open one more case and decide then?I compare this scenario to playing NLHE in a big tournament, and you're in a big hand at the final table. You flop and open ended straight flush draw with fifteen outs, you're last to act, and your opponent checks to you. While you're thinking about whether or not to bet or to see a free card on the turn, your opponent says that, if you check, he'll push all in on the turn regardless of what card is dealt. Now, you put your opponent on pocket aces, and you're 55% to win on the flop, and you realize that, if the turn card doesn't help you, and your opponent pushes all in on the turn, you'll be a 2:1 underdog. Some feel that the best play would be to make the push on the flop when you have the best odds.Back to the DOND question. The prize amounts remaining are $1 million, $750,000, $500,000, and $1. And you're given a banker's offer to drop out with $550,000 (which is close to an average of the three amounts). Should you take the offer of $550,000? Should you open one more case and decide then? If you open the $1, the offer goes way up. If you open the $1 million, the offer goes way down.Or, since you've got a 75% chance that your case holds between $500,000 and $1 million, should you make the decision to open two more cases, disregard what they hold, and keep your case on the pedestal? This would be similar to pushing all in on the flop when you have the best odds; right?DOND is all about strategy and making the best decision based on your outs and the current offer. Kind of like poker. If I were going to play, I'd plan on taking the offer with about four or five cases left. But I'd analyze the situation as it goes.I'll leave it up to you to decide.

[Dogpatch 2]

It is called deal or no deal, the banker wants to buy your case for amount less than what is mathematically correct.IF you don't pick a case you have nothing to bargain with. THERE WOULD BE NO SHOW AND YOU DON'T HAVE TO START THIS STUPID THREAD.

Wow. Can anybody say "Flame On"? I'll just grab my popcorn and wait, this could get good.

[Actuary 3]

It is called deal or no deal, the banker wants to buy your case for amount less than what is mathematically correct.IF you don't pick a case you have nothing to bargain with. THERE WOULD BE NO SHOW AND YOU DON'T HAVE TO START THIS STUPID THREAD.

Sir At least you are trying to contribute with this post.that is improving.The Banker is giving you a deal and if you except, you stop picking.If you never except, you end up with your first case.We agree.However, it's no different than leaving all the cases on the stage; and if you never accept a deal, you choose until you have one case left; and that last case amount is your prize money. It's effectively the same as choosing it first and selecting all cases on the stage. Having a phyical case by your side vs the collective remaing cases to bargain with, is of no consequenceCare to respond intelligently?***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************Great_Dane,taking your first example, if both the $1 and $1,000,000 cases were on stage and the contestant did not preselect a case....The Banker could still offer $550,000 and allow you to take the deal, or pick one more case; therby forfeiting the deal and taking home whatever was in the unopened case (same as if you had that case all along and chose all the others on stage rather than dealing)I'm suggesting that having 1 of the 2 or 5 or 10 remaining cases sitting right in front of you has no impact on the game.You could do the same thing by leaving all of them on stage.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

Great_Dane,taking your first example, if both the $1 and $1,000,000 cases were on stage and the contestant did not preselect a case....The Banker could still offer $550,000 and allow you to take the deal, or pick one more case; therby forfeiting the deal and taking home whatever was in the unopened case (same as if you had that case all along and chose all the others on stage rather than dealing)I'm suggesting that having 1 of the 2 or 5 or 10 remaining cases sitting right in front of you has no impact on the game.You could do the same thing by leaving all of them on stage.

The whole point of picking a case is so you get the whole, "did you make a good deal or a bad one." Say you don't pick a case and you get to the point where there are 5 cases left. If you take the bankers offer then there is nothing to compare it to. When you choose a case and you take the deal with 5 cases left we get to see if all along they had that million bucks or 1 cent. It adds to the drama.

[Actuary 3]

so, we agree it's for drama but otherwise, no impact on the Banker's Deal proposistions nor the final $$ won.cool.

[sloshr 0]

You guys seem to think they give you close to or even better than an even EV deal. I only watched the show twice, but every offer I saw was way below what it should have been. I would have turned down every offer.Say there are 4 cases left: 500000, 25000, 1000, and 5. Your EV would be around $132000, which is the "value" of your case. Seems to me they always would offer around $85000. My dad argued that it was a good deal since 3/4 of the time you would get less than the 85000, but I told him he didn't understand the math and we argued and he got mad at me, but he was still wrong. I guess this is what makes it a good show. The average person can't understand why the bankers offer is a lowball.

[Actuary 3]

You guys seem to think they give you close to or even better than an even EV deal.

it goes both ways.i don't watch it enough to know the pattern.They might, as noted later in your post, make the offer more closer to the Median, than just the MeanI'm not sure Average Case Amount is the way to look at this.Since at no point can you say "I'll take the average". Instead you always have to consider the likelihood that more picks will raise/lower the next offer.Dane hit on this.