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Odds Of Kk Running Into Aa?


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You may try a search, I am wayyyyy to lazzzzy right now to do this, but I do remember a thread awhile ago that talked about it. I swear the answer the came up with was similar to solderz, but dont remember.gl

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I've folded KK preflop 3 times in my lifetime and have been fortunate enough to have been right all 3 times. But this hand is just so astronomically difficult to get away from. Early on in tourney's when your M is huge and there is so much room for play, it is significantly easier to get rid of this hand. Later on in a tourney when the blinds go up, it is near impossible to get rid of this hand preflop. When I get to this stage, I often time mix up my play and often smooth call raises especially if the orginal raiser also has a large stack (if I'm first in I will always raise with this hand). By smooth calling, I keep control of the size of the pot. I prefer to play small pot poker, so there have been times where I have had KK vs. AA and only lost a small portion of my stack late in tournaments where I soft played my hand. I clearly don't want to say that you should always soft play KK late in tournaments because there are often dynamic situations where it is much better to throw in a reraise against a shorter stack or if I'm a short stack, but it is often that I am smooth calling with KK against a larger stack.I think smooth calling with other hands in position offers some other benefits than reraising as well. It really just confuses the hell out of everyone. I will smooth call in position with a wide variety of hands (AA,KK, AQ, 66, 98s, 10Js, etc). It keeps everyone guess because ambiguous flops become dangerous to you're opponents because you've shown to play a wide variety of hands in position without reraising (hence the deception that makes this game so beautiful). This allows ample opportunity to bluff and pick up small pots. So if it gets checked to you and you decide to stab at the pot, then get check raised, you can minimize your loss in a bluff attempt. If you hit the flop hard, you can make the same bet (such as half the pot) that you would when you are bluffing. That way if someone comes over the top, you can then get paid off for a big hand. It's the theory of win small pot, win small pot, someone thinks you're bluffing again...... win big pot.Wow, I ramble way too much. I guess I should have saved this for the strat forum. But to get back to the KK vs. AA question, yeah it sucks, and sometimes you just can't get away.Alpha

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I don't know but last night during a SNG I had AA and everyone folded to me. Next hand I got KK. I raised, got reraised, I then raised again, and he pushed all in. I thought about folding but figured what are the chances someone got dealt AA the hand after I did. So I call the all in...AA figures :club:

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I thought about folding but figured what are the chances someone got dealt AA the hand after I did.
This kind of thinking is one of the major reasons good players can make consistent money at poker. The hands prior mean absolutely nothing to the next hand dealt. New shuffle, new odds. Which of course you know, but it is hard for the brain not to think that way, and the players that know better can take advantage. While I was on the Cruisin for Millions cruise in 05 I had AA dealt to me 3 out of 4 times (too bad it was in a cash game and not the actual tournament) and was dealt AJ the other time and hit broadway. The even more surprising thing was that I won all 4 hands.
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Funny story related to this: was with a number of pros including hellmuth, PokerHo, Grinder, Fischman, Bonetti and Antonio when this question came up. Not one of them thought it was less than 1/100 and they all scoffed when I said it was 1/24.Mark

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Funny story related to this: was with a number of pros including hellmuth, PokerHo, Grinder, Fischman, Bonetti and Antonio when this question came up. Not one of them thought it was less than 1/100 and they all scoffed when I said it was 1/24.Mark
I find that amazing. Absolutely amazing. since so many people seem to be confused about this, I'll break down the math involved.The only hand we are worried about is AA. So the odds are caluculated as follows:4/52 x 3/51 = 1/221 = 220:1 (this is the math involved the calculating the odds of receiving any particular pair as your two hole cards, ie. j's, 10's, or in this case, A's. The top number represents the number of cards in the deck that fit the card you want. The bottom number is the total number of cards. Since you are drawing two cards you need to do this for each card and multiply the two to caluculate the odds)If we are at a 9 person table, there are 8 chances to draw AA, so you can either multiply the 8 times the above fraction, or for a quicker rough number, divide 220 by 8 to reach 27.5:1 for a 9 person table. For ten person table, 24.4:1.Thought I'd post in case anyone is interested.
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I find that amazing. Absolutely amazing. since so many people seem to be confused about this, I'll break down the math involved.The only hand we are worried about is AA. So the odds are caluculated as follows:4/52 x 3/51 = 1/221 = 220:1 (this is the math involved the calculating the odds of receiving any particular pair as your two hole cards, ie. j's, 10's, or in this case, A's. The top number represents the number of cards in the deck that fit the card you want. The bottom number is the total number of cards. Since you are drawing two cards you need to do this for each card and multiply the two to caluculate the odds)If we are at a 9 person table, there are 8 chances to draw AA, so you can either multiply the 8 times the above fraction, or for a quicker rough number, divide 220 by 8 to reach 27.5:1 for a 9 person table. For ten person table, 24.4:1.Thought I'd post in case anyone is interested.
Wow. Mathematics. Who'd a thunk?
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