Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 25, 2006 Share Posted October 25, 2006 Doyle Brunson didn't call Johnny Moss with J-high on the odds, nor did Josh Arieh fold his rivered flush on the odds. At the same time, we never hear about the jack-high calls that were wrong. I called someone 6 weeks ago in a 5 way pot with J high on the river. He comments "well, I guess you can beat 8 high" and he tables his hand and looks in shock at how I could call his bet. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted October 25, 2006 Share Posted October 25, 2006 Your opponant has K J Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted October 25, 2006 Share Posted October 25, 2006 Your opponant has K J You find the HH where DN talks about this hand? Or is that just a very confident guess? Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 25, 2006 Share Posted October 25, 2006 You find the HH where DN talks about this hand? Or is that just a very confident guess?Maybe this is a trick. Maybe it's the same hand from quiz question 21 and we're just stringing him along. We know he has Q J and we're just trapping him. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted October 25, 2006 Share Posted October 25, 2006 You find the HH where DN talks about this hand? Or is that just a very confident guess?Just the first hand that came to my mind with this type of play, lots and lots of opportunity on turn, not coming through, so the desperation overbet. Link to post Share on other sites
DrZebra 0 Posted October 26, 2006 Share Posted October 26, 2006 Are we to assume we are ourselves or DN?ie we may know nothing of villain, but does villain know us? Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 26, 2006 Share Posted October 26, 2006 Are we to assume we are ourselves or DN?ie we may know nothing of villain, but does villain know us?I think we're an unknown as well. Whoever said we were DN was assuming things. I think that all of these questions are posed as if we were ourselves in the situation. Link to post Share on other sites
keltelle 0 Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 I would fold because I would not have enough information on how the player plays drawing hands or 2 paris. He could have easily caught his open ended str8 on the turn with the 7. He could have 10 J suited in the big blind. Also could have had A9 and flopped 2 pairs. We never made the odds out of his favor not to chace his str8. Once he his his st8 he checked again to suck us in. We also never but out a big enough bet to see his reaction to thinking about calling or raising us.And Early in the game I would fold. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 27, 2006 Share Posted October 27, 2006 I would fold because I would not have enough information on how the player plays drawing hands or 2 paris. He could have easily caught his open ended str8 on the turn with the 7. He could have 10 J suited in the big blind. Also could have had A9 and flopped 2 pairs. We never made the odds out of his favor not to chace his str8. Once he his his st8 he checked again to suck us in. We also never but out a big enough bet to see his reaction to thinking about calling or raising us.And Early in the game I would fold.Not to be rude, but you do realize that we speak english in these forums, right? Link to post Share on other sites
offset 0 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 As I said before, this is a call. They key is that this is near the end of the day. Our opponent is tired and more likely to make a large bluff and is willing to take big risks to increase his chip stack in preparation for higher blinds. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 As I said before, this is a call. They key is that this is near the end of the day. Our opponent is tired and more likely to make a large bluff and is willing to take big risks to increase his chip stack in preparation for higher blinds.You're making assumptions. If you wanna make a statement like that, then it's fine, but you're only guessing as to what type of player they are. We don't know if our opponent is changing his style because the end of the day is nearing. For all we know one of his biggest goals was to make it to day 2. If we knew that, would it change things? Link to post Share on other sites
ReefAquarium 0 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 You are dealt A K and raise from late position to 800. The player in the big blind calls you. The flop comes A 9 8 . The big blind checks to you and you decide to play tricky and check behind him. The turn is the 7 and your opponent checks again. This time you make a goofy little bet of 1000. Your opponent calls. The river comes the 3 and all of a sudden your opponent goes all in for 5400. You have 6300. The question is simple, without knowing ANYTHING about the player, what would you do? It is level five of a $10,000 buy in tournament.Hi Daniel,I asked my dog what to do and he said, "First sit down and go over what you know about this hand ....Step 1: Calculate the M and pot odds.I assume the $10,000 buy in tournament has a structure like the WSOP main event... (From the website)1 $25/$502 $50/$1003 $100/$2004 $25 $100/$2005 $25 $150/$300 6 $50 $200/$400Was this the structure Daniel intended? My post assumes something like this....1 M is the cost to play one round is $150+$300+($25 times 10)= $700Your opponents starting stack is $800 + $25 + $1000 + $5400 = $7225His starting stack is $7225. So his M is 7225/700 = about 10. An M of Ten means if he knows what he's doing he for the most part if he wasn't in a blind defense situation he doesn't have a big enough stack to play speculative hands like small pairs and suited connectors. There is not enough implied odds for him to make enough when he hits his hand.Preflop: You bet 800 in late position, He calls for $500 more.. He calls $500 into a pot of $1500 getting 3 to 1 odds... Pot is now $2000What hands might he call with in a blind defense situation with a M of 10?3 to 1 odds in a blind defense situation is good odds.. His calling range is probably pretty wide... Maybe he'll throw away his bottom 30-40% of hands...If he thinks you're on a steal I'd guess if he's loose his playing hands might be...I'm also guessing if he had a big pair like AA or KK he's raise us...He'd call with 22-QQ, Any Ax, Any Kx, Q5+, J9+, Suited connectors down to 54s ......But your preflop bet is kind of small, If you were stealing you would probably bet at least 3 or 4 Big Blinds in an ante situation from late position..... It looks suspiciously like you're angling for a call...so I would think he would be a little suspicious...Flop:: The flop comes A 9 8 . The big blind checks to you and you decide to play tricky and check behind him.: You're trapping with top pair top kicker on a pretty dry flop... No flush and not too much chance of a straight draw. ... You don't reveal the strength of your hand and you don't learn much about the strength of his.Turn:: The turn is the 7 and your opponent checks again. This time you make a goofy little bet of 1000. Your opponent calls.Pot is now $4000The turn puts 3 to a straight and two spades on board and you make what looks to him like a delayed continuation bet of half the pot...He didn't bet after you check the flop...So I think he doesn't mind you getting a free card... He probably doesn't think you have a hand since you checked the flop ...Conclusion: He's slow playing you with a monster that doesn't mind giving free cards ... or .... He's on a draw.Conclusion: He checked , So if he made a straight he was giving your free card to a flush with 2 spades on the board?... Unlikely....Conclusion: He checked , So if he made a trips he was giving your free card to a flush with 2 spades on the board and 3 cards to a straight. Unlikely....Conclusion: He doesn't have trips, a straight, a worse Ace or 2 pair since he doesn't seem to mind you getting free cards..What cards from his starting hands stated above fit this profile....Flush draws, straight draws preferably with spades.RIVER:::::: The river comes the 3 and all of a sudden your opponent goes all in for 5400. You have 6300. The question is simple, without knowing ANYTHING about the player, what would you do?Well the first thing I do is flare my nostrils, and take a deep breath...Do you smell fear...????Of course you do....He bet 5400 into a 4000 pot.. You need to put in $5400 to win $9400.. Question...Are you ahead 40% of time???If he has JTspades or 65spades then you're beat...Okay now crunch time....You don't know ANYTHING about the player...Which means he's not someone you know ANYTHING about....Which means, He's not anyone famous...He's not a famous world class player... He's not Phil Ivey or Doyle Brunson.He's not thinking that you'll go through this exercise.. and then smell fake fear in the air with your dog nose and come to the right conclusion...He's playing with guilessness. He's not pretending to be on a draw... He probably doesn't think you can read hands like this.Unless he thinks you can read hands and he's an expert ... this is only 2nd level thinking...::::::::::::::::::::::::The river is a total blank... No flushes are possible...If you made a straight or trips on the turn ...Would you go all in? Betting into the turn better?Or would you make a smaller suck bet or a value bet to get more money into the pot???Or would you check raise.You wouldn't bet the nuts all in to the turn bettor unless you're a beginner.If you were a new beginner you might think "Zowie" I have a straight I think I'll push all in"But then if you were an easily excited beginner you wouldn't smooth call on the turn when you made your straight...This guy doesn't have a straight more than 60% of time.....Only decision is ....Do you want to be mean and toy with him luxuriating in the smell of his fear , and let him stew afraid that you will call, and then pretend that you aren’t sure but bumbled into a call by mistake so that the rest of the players don't know you can read hands????Or be merciful and almost beat him into the centre of the pot with a call and Scream "Show me your Busted Draw!!!"So that's what my dog and I suggest is the answer.Derick Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Hi Daniel,I asked my dog what to do and he said, "First sit down and go over what you know about this hand ....Step 1: Calculate the M and pot odds.I assume the $10,000 buy in tournament has a structure like the WSOP main event... (From the website)1 $25/$502 $50/$1003 $100/$2004 $25 $100/$2005 $25 $150/$300 6 $50 $200/$400Was this the structure Daniel intended? My post assumes something like this....1 M is the cost to play one round is $150+$300+($25 times 10)= $700Your opponents starting stack is $800 + $25 + $1000 + $5400 = $7225His starting stack is $7225. So his M is 7225/700 = about 10. An M of Ten means if he knows what he's doing he for the most part if he wasn't in a blind defense situation he doesn't have a big enough stack to play speculative hands like small pairs and suited connectors. There is not enough implied odds for him to make enough when he hits his hand.Preflop: You bet 800 in late position, He calls for $500 more.. He calls $500 into a pot of $1500 getting 3 to 1 odds... Pot is now $2000What hands might he call with in a blind defense situation with a M of 10?3 to 1 odds in a blind defense situation is good odds.. His calling range is probably pretty wide... Maybe he'll throw away his bottom 30-40% of hands...If he thinks you're on a steal I'd guess if he's loose his playing hands might be...I'm also guessing if he had a big pair like AA or KK he's raise us...He'd call with 22-QQ, Any Ax, Any Kx, Q5+, J9+, Suited connectors down to 54s ......But your preflop bet is kind of small, If you were stealing you would probably bet at least 3 or 4 Big Blinds in an ante situation from late position..... It looks suspiciously like you're angling for a call...so I would think he would be a little suspicious...Flop:: The flop comes A 9 8 . The big blind checks to you and you decide to play tricky and check behind him.: You're trapping with top pair top kicker on a pretty dry flop... No flush and not too much chance of a straight draw. ... You don't reveal the strength of your hand and you don't learn much about the strength of his.Turn:: The turn is the 7 and your opponent checks again. This time you make a goofy little bet of 1000. Your opponent calls.The turn puts 3 to a straight and two spades on board and you make what looks to him like a delayed continuation bet of half the pot...He didn't bet after you check the flop...So I think he doesn't mind you getting a free card... He probably doesn't think you have a hand since you checked the flop ...Conclusion: He's slow playing you with a monster that doesn't mind giving free cards ... or .... He's on a draw.Conclusion: He checked , So if he made a straight he was giving your free card to a flush with 2 spades on the board?... Unlikely....Conclusion: He checked , So if he made a trips he was giving your free card to a flush with 2 spades on the board and 3 cards to a straight. Unlikely....Conclusion: He doesn't have trips, a straight, a worse Ace or 2 pair since he doesn't seem to mind you getting free cards..What cards from his starting hands stated above fit this profile....Flush draws, straight draws preferably with spades.RIVER:::::: The river comes the 3 and all of a sudden your opponent goes all in for 5400. You have 6300. The question is simple, without knowing ANYTHING about the player, what would you do?Well the first thing I do is flare my nostrils, and take a deep breath...Do you smell fear...????Of course you do....He bet 5400 into a 2000 pot.. You need to put in $5400 to win $7400.. Question...Are you ahead 40% of time???If he has JTspades or 65spades then you're beat...Okay now crunch time....You don't know ANYTHING about the player...Which means he's not someone you know ANYTHING about....Which means, He's not anyone famous...He's not a famous world class player... He's not Phil Ivey or Doyle Brunson.He's not thinking that you'll go through this exercise.. and then smell fake fear in the air with your dog nose and come to the right conclusion...He's playing with guilessness. He's not pretending to be on a draw... He probably doesn't think you can read hands like this.Unless he thinks you can read hands and he's an expert ... this is only 2nd level thinking...::::::::::::::::::::::::The river is a total blank... No flushes are possible...If you made a straight or trips on the turn ...Would you go all in? Betting into the turn better?Or would you make a smaller suck bet or a value bet to get more money into the pot???Or would you check raise.You wouldn't bet the nuts all in to the turn bettor unless you're a beginner.If you were a new beginner you might think "Zowie" I have a straight I think I'll push all in"But then if you were an easily excited beginner you wouldn't smooth call on the turn when you made your straight...This guy doesn't have a straight more than 60% of time.....Only decision is ....Do you want to be mean and toy with him luxuriating in the smell of his fear , and let him stew afraid that you will call, and then pretend that you aren’t sure but bumbled into a call by mistake so that the rest of the players don't know you can read hands????Or be merciful and almost beat him into the centre of the pot with a call and Scream "Show me your Busted Draw!!!"So that's what my dog and I suggest is the answer.DerickIs it me or did you rewrite DN's OP in as many drawn-out words as possible?I like how you discount the possibility of him having any kind of hand at all and say "I know you're on a draw and I beat you into the pot" without fully thinking about the situation as he turns over the nuts.... 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ReefAquarium 0 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Is it me or did you rewrite DN's OP in as many drawn-out words as possible?I like how you discount the possibility of him having any kind of hand at all and say "I know you're on a draw and I beat you into the pot" without fully thinking about the situation as he turns over the nuts....Think of the table image it would build if you say something like "Show me KT of spades" ... and he does...You only have to be right 40% of the time...Do a quick structured hand analysis of it....I showed your reply to my dog and sniffed your answer twice and asked if you want to make a side bet on the answer...His money is on calling at 40/60 odds. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Think of the table image it would build if you say something like "Show me KT of spades" ...And he shows 8 9 as he rakes in all of your chips, leaving you crippled and almost out of the tournament... Link to post Share on other sites
ReefAquarium 0 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 And he shows 8 9 as he rakes in all of your chips, leaving you crippled and almost out of the tournament...He doesn't have 8 9 He checked the turn with a 3 straight and an overcard to his 2 pair.Unless he likes giving free cards to someone who checked the flop.... Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 He doesn't have 8 9 He checked the turn with a 3 straight and an overcard to his 2 pair.Unless he likes giving free cards to someone who checked the flop....He can have many hands that beat you. If you're so eager to get your money in here, then you're not thinking about the situation clearly. It is a borderline call or fold, but it is close either way.He bet 5400 into a 2000 pot.. You need to put in $5400 to win $7400..Since when is it a $2000 pot? The pot is right around $4000 after he calls your turn bet. Link to post Share on other sites
ReefAquarium 0 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 He can have many hands that beat you. If you're so eager to get your money in here, then you're not thinking about the situation clearly. It is a borderline call or fold, but it is close either way.He's on a busted draw or has a small piece of the flop.He didn't bet the turn with straight and flush possiblities. So he doesn't have a made hand.He overbet into the turn bettor to try to scare the weak tight players.out when the blank hit on the river.He's not on a monster, he's trying to overbet the weak tight players into folding, not make some money off his straight.He doesn't put you on AK, you played it really weird so he has no idea you have TPTK.You're getting odds to call.. so call.If 50% of the time he beats you shows you something like JT then fine.. you've made a +EV deciscionYou only need call 5400 to win 9400 so call. (Thanks for the correction). Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 He didn't bet the turn with straight and flush possiblities. So he doesn't have a made hand.Yeah, becuase nobody in this history of poker has gotten tricky with a big hand... Link to post Share on other sites
ReefAquarium 0 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 Yeah, becuase nobody in this history of poker has gotten tricky with a big hand...You know nothing about him. He's probablly not a world class player who is representing a beginner over betting with a straight after check calling a dangerous turn.He doesn't know you have AK.The sequence was --- Turn:Check to Give Free Cards On a Dangerous Board... ---- River:Overbet Pot ---This means he probably missed his draw.You only have to be right 40% of the time to show a profit...He might be playing in a weird way (you certainly are) But calling is +EVStop playing weak tight, you're seeing monsters under the bed. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 He might be playing in a weird way (you certainly are) But calling is +EVStop playing weak tight, you're seeing monsters under the bed.We have a pretty strong hand that doesn't look so strong. Interesting...Folding here is not weak-tight at all. Link to post Share on other sites
Nikki_N 17 Posted October 30, 2006 Share Posted October 30, 2006 In the words of my brilliant husband:Don't stack off with one pair. Link to post Share on other sites
JMotrain 0 Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 This hand seems pretty tricky to figure out given how we played it. I think if we bet the flop and turn and then he moved in or c/r'd us on the turn, it's an easy fold. I mean unless the guy is check-raising with like AQ or AJ, we can only beat a bluff. Given no information about the player, most people don't check raise with nothing, so it's safe to assume we are beaten. On the river, I'd ask myself if this guy would check raise all in with a straight or two pair, or would he move all in because he fears us checking behind him. Or would he do that on a bluff to make us lay our hand down. If this is a straightforward player, I think it's a pretty easy fold. If he's tricky, it's much harder. Given the way we played the hand, I think I'd fold. Link to post Share on other sites
offset 0 Posted November 5, 2006 Share Posted November 5, 2006 You're making assumptions. If you wanna make a statement like that, then it's fine, but you're only guessing as to what type of player they are. We don't know if our opponent is changing his style because the end of the day is nearing. For all we know one of his biggest goals was to make it to day 2. If we knew that, would it change things?As long as we are playin the what if game, what if he is the type of player who would do this with any two cards? What if he lost 80% of his stack and is tilting off the rest of it? If we know that, it also changes things. Since we know nothing about this player we have to go on the few assumptions we have. We know it is near the end of the day, we know most players do not want to enter day 2 low on chips, and we know that most hands that beat us do not play this way. Poker is a game of assumptions, my friend, and the best we can do is rely on our most accurate assumptions and play accordingly. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted November 6, 2006 Share Posted November 6, 2006 As long as we are playin the what if game, what if he is the type of player who would do this with any two cards? What if he lost 80% of his stack and is tilting off the rest of it? If we know that, it also changes things. Since we know nothing about this player we have to go on the few assumptions we have. We know it is near the end of the day, we know most players do not want to enter day 2 low on chips, and we know that most hands that beat us do not play this way. Poker is a game of assumptions, my friend, and the best we can do is rely on our most accurate assumptions and play accordingly.I disagree with this. Many players would rather survive to day 2 than lose all of their chips right at the end of day 1. I think there is probably an even split between those who would rather survive and those who would rather have either a big stack or no stack. Link to post Share on other sites
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