Morpheus 0 Posted November 14, 2006 Share Posted November 14, 2006 Daniel still hasn't responded to this thread......It would be great to get his view on the hand.It's a tough spot for sure, but I think ripp and actuary are correct in their assessment.One thing to note in the thought process of PW is that this was his first huge cash in a tournament and he had the chance to move up 2M more by folding. I think the money definitely factored into his decision (as people have already said). I think it would be easier for a pro to make this call, since they have already had a taste of that kind of money and moving up a spot probably factors into their decision less than winning the tournament does.My two cents.....Daniel, come on man, respond to this thread!!!!!! GL in Foxwoods btw......Morpheus Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted November 14, 2006 Share Posted November 14, 2006 I can't believe this wasn't an insta call. he outstacked Michael Binger, so if all 3 players are all in and he misses and Jamie Gold takes the pot...he still gets 2nd place cash. I just think this was a horrible fold....Clearly he wasn't playing to win IMOdiscussLast night I called off half my chips on a villain's all in. He had two pair; I had an OESFD. Did I do the right thing? Link to post Share on other sites
Morpheus 0 Posted November 14, 2006 Share Posted November 14, 2006 Your situation is a coin flip. Depending on with the actual cards are, you are either a slight favorite or a slight dog.I think your play is ok, it's not for you whole stack so if you lose you're still in it. If he had one pair you're the favorite for sure. His two pair gives him redraws to the full house (depending on which two pair you're either a slight favorite or a slight dog). Against a less likely set, you're about 42% to win. Against a higher flush draw you're about 40% to win. Link to post Share on other sites
Morpheus 0 Posted November 14, 2006 Share Posted November 14, 2006 Daniel....your thoughts? Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted November 14, 2006 Share Posted November 14, 2006 If you sincerely put Gold on a flush draw, you are likely dead to 6-8 outs in the deck.The thing about reading the higher flush draw ... nah. With three to a flush on the board (which is what you're hoping for and more likely to get than runner runner spade) you're going to be good 95% of the time. I actually see very, very few flush over flush hands. Especially three handed. Four to a flush on the board with the flush coming early is a completely different story -- flushes galore. But this is not "just a flush draw," it's a nut straight draw, a flush draw and a straight flush draw. Half the deck are your outs, and many of those are stone cold nuts for you. You have three players in the hand. You could triple up. You have $4 million in the bank and you're theoretically only risking loss of $2 million more. The time, price and place is right to call. But you sure look stupid if it doesn't hit, just like you look stupid if it doesn't. Link to post Share on other sites
timwakefield 68 Posted November 14, 2006 Share Posted November 14, 2006 Last night I called off half my chips on a villain's all in. He had two pair; I had an OESFD. Did I do the right thing?Well I don't think rippytide will be responding, since he got banned like a month ago. Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted November 14, 2006 Share Posted November 14, 2006 Well I don't think rippytide will be responding, since he got banned like a month ago.Details, details. ANSWER THE QUESTION !!! Link to post Share on other sites
Morpheus 0 Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 1 Link to post Share on other sites
TheCinciKid 0 Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 Daniel....your thoughts?I seriously doubt DN folds in that spot....I also seriously doubt that he'll respond to this thread, but I guess you never know...stranger things have happened. Link to post Share on other sites
Uppie_ 0 Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 its a muiti million dollar fold how can we say it was a bad one Link to post Share on other sites
nyrajf 0 Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 I actually spoke to Paul to ask him about this hand as I wanted to do a version of "The Debate" with him. His reasoning was that he had Jamie on a higher flush draw which means he didn't think he had that many outs. On top of that, he thought that if he called, Binger might fold which would possibly eliminate him in third place if Jamie did indeed have a made hand already and he couldn't catch up. He also belived that he could take out Jamie heads up, no matter what the chip lead was. he wanted to get to heads up play, and then go from there.He's not losing sleep over his fold here. I'll try to get a column with him up sometime soon.-Andrew Link to post Share on other sites
Jam-Fly 8 Posted December 15, 2006 Share Posted December 15, 2006 I think the fold is good. chances are, he knew Jamie was on a draw, the 34 could easily have been a Jack high flush draw, in which case, binger is drawing to an OESD. Rly wana risk ur life on that ? and the risk that binger has a set and u cud be dead on the turn etc etc Link to post Share on other sites
gkunit20 1 Posted December 16, 2006 Share Posted December 16, 2006 I think the fold is good. chances are, he knew Jamie was on a draw, the 34 could easily have been a Jack high flush draw, in which case, binger is drawing to an OESD. Rly wana risk ur life on that ? and the risk that binger has a set and u cud be dead on the turn etc etcWorst. Bump. Ever. Link to post Share on other sites
doox 15 Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 They're debating this hand on the ESPN poker section tonight: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?...&name=poker Link to post Share on other sites
DCJ001 0 Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 I went to Atlantic City last week. I bought into a $1/$2 NLHE game for $200. A few of us limped for $2 and I had 5 8 diamonds. The flop was 6 7 diamonds 2 clubs. 1st player bet $10. I raised to $25. 3rd player raised to $75. 1st player called all in for $75 total. I raised all in for $200 total. 3rd player thought for a couple of minutes, asked if I had set of deuces and called. 1st player showed set of deuces. 3rd player showed top two pair. I showed OESFD. I said, "I need a four, or a nine, or a diamond." I knew that I was a favorite with no guarantee.Results: Turn card: 4 of diamonds gave me a straight flush!Wasicka should have done the same to play for the win. Link to post Share on other sites
nyrajf 0 Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 I actually spoke to Paul to ask him about this hand as I wanted to do a version of "The Debate" with him. His reasoning was that he had Jamie on a higher flush draw which means he didn't think he had that many outs. On top of that, he thought that if he called, Binger might fold which would possibly eliminate him in third place if Jamie did indeed have a made hand already and he couldn't catch up. He also belived that he could take out Jamie heads up, no matter what the chip lead was. he wanted to get to heads up play, and then go from there.He's not losing sleep over his fold here. I'll try to get a column with him up sometime soon.-AndrewI didn't lie, I got the column up..just a little delayed:http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?...mp;lid=tab7pos3 Link to post Share on other sites
7s7c 0 Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 I went to Atlantic City last week. I bought into a $1/$2 NLHE game for $200. A few of us limped for $2 and I had 5 8 diamonds. The flop was 6 7 diamonds 2 clubs. 1st player bet $10. I raised to $25. 3rd player raised to $75. 1st player called all in for $75 total. I raised all in for $200 total. 3rd player thought for a couple of minutes, asked if I had set of deuces and called. 1st player showed set of deuces. 3rd player showed top two pair. I showed OESFD. I said, "I need a four, or a nine, or a diamond." I knew that I was a favorite with no guarantee.Results: Turn card: 4 of diamonds gave me a straight flush!Wasicka should have done the same to play for the win.Indeed....playing for $600 in a cash game is exactly the same and requires the same amount of deliberation. Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 I went to Atlantic City last week. I bought into a $1/$2 NLHE game for $200. A few of us limped for $2 and I had 5 8 diamonds. The flop was 6 7 diamonds 2 clubs. 1st player bet $10. I raised to $25. 3rd player raised to $75. 1st player called all in for $75 total. I raised all in for $200 total. 3rd player thought for a couple of minutes, asked if I had set of deuces and called. 1st player showed set of deuces. 3rd player showed top two pair. I showed OESFD. I said, "I need a four, or a nine, or a diamond." I knew that I was a favorite with no guarantee.Results: Turn card: 4 of diamonds gave me a straight flush!Wasicka should have done the same to play for the win.I don't fold OESFDs on uncoordinated boards. Ever. Link to post Share on other sites
suicideking 0 Posted January 31, 2007 Share Posted January 31, 2007 I don't fold OESFDs on uncoordinated boards. Ever.I wish i had some Oreos. Link to post Share on other sites
TheBoobster 0 Posted February 2, 2007 Share Posted February 2, 2007 I've read almost this entire thread, and I agree with most of you that making the call would have been the correct play for Wasicka. I'm sure DN would have insta-called.With a guaranteed 4M, and a very good chance to win the tourney, it should have been a no brainer.Hell, if I was guaranteed 4M already, and looked down to see an OESFD, I'd call in a second, regardless if I thought Binger would call or not. What more could you ask for? With the types of hands Gold was playing, that's exactly the kind of hand you need take him down. With 4M in the bank, what is there to be afraid of??4M Link to post Share on other sites
pdparv19 0 Posted February 2, 2007 Share Posted February 2, 2007 Hey guys. I spoke with Paul a bit about this last week at Borgata, and asked if he would blog about it. If the mod's dont mind Ill post a link. http://bluffmagazine.com/blog/blogdetail.a...81&bcatid=4I think Pauls analysis of the hand is great, and will help give everyone some insight. Link to post Share on other sites
WowThats 0 Posted February 2, 2007 Share Posted February 2, 2007 A good article everyone should read. Link to post Share on other sites
Willing 2 Die 0 Posted February 2, 2007 Share Posted February 2, 2007 to complement this article, can we have a subsequent article on the percentages to back up his bonehead play with the 10s? Link to post Share on other sites
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