Zach6668 513 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 $3+r. End of 2nd hour, or like beginning of 3rd.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)MP1 (t26710)MP2 (t7975)MP3 (t31945)CO (t41730)Button (t13935)SB (t5950)Hero (t15220)UTG (t4110)UTG+1 (t14350)Preflop: Hero is BB with T , 7 . 2 folds, MP1 raises to t800, 5 folds, Hero calls t400.Flop: (t1400) T , 7 , J (2 players)Hero checks, MP1 checks.Turn: (t1400) T (2 players)Hero bets t800, MP1 calls t800.River: (t3000) 5 (2 players)Hero bets t2000, MP1 raises to t4000, Hero ... Link to post Share on other sites
Outlaw4033 0 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Any reads on the villian?I call without too much thought. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 Any reads on the villian?I call without too much thought.No push? Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 is it really JJ often enough not to push? seems like an easy push here.oh, and probably the best thread name in the history of the tourney strat forum. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 oh, and probably the best thread name in the history of the tourney strat forum.Thank you, thank you.Glad I could turn my misery into a laugh. Link to post Share on other sites
trystero 0 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Thank you, thank you.Glad I could turn my misery into a laugh.jacks?that's one sick cooler. Perfect ESPN hand though. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 jacks?that's one sick cooler. Perfect ESPN hand though.I think a good player could leave this hand without going broke.I went broke.I knew he had JJ the entire time.Can we just call this river? Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 wow,.2hr and 20 min between post and resultsI'm raising to 10k on river and hoping he pushesI lead this flop about 45% of the time. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 wow,.2hr and 20 min between post and resultsI'm raising to 10k on river and hoping he pushesI lead this flop about 45% of the time.I think there's just as much merit in this particular hand in discussing the river call/push even knowing the results. Go back to your corner. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 I think there's just as much merit in this particular hand in discussing the river call/push even knowing the results. Go back to your corner.do that again and we'll revoke your "Bitching at others for breaking the rules card"everyone always excuses this by saying results won't matter and all of us should be able to post objectively. truth is, it does have an effect.if you're going to be a forum cop, then walk the line, punk. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 2hr and 20 min between post and resultsActually, I'm fairly sure he gave it away with this comment:Glad I could turn my misery into a laugh.so it was 34 minutes. New record?Anyway, this is purely a case of analysing his range.JJ - plainly, yes.77 - yes.JT - yes.TX - would probably have bet the flopAsXs - would probably have made a continuation bet, but a possibility.XsYs - possible.T7 - would have to be offsuit. Not very likely.89 - probably not. Would have raised the turn or just called the river.Overall, JJ, JT and 77 are somewhat definites, and there is a small chance he may have a flush.I think you are probably about 50 50 against his range, but with some fold equity over flushes if we push/raise I think I like just calling here.I may have been slightly affected by the results, but I think my ranges are reasonable. Link to post Share on other sites
Sefaje 0 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Wow, disgusting hand. Unfortunately JJ,JT,77 and a flush both play this hand like he does. I think Ax of spades would have bet the flop though hes doesnt have to have the NF to have a flush. what would he have done with KQs? bet the OESD?The way I see it, he's only raising the river with a FH, flush, or straight. He could possibly lay down anything you beat besides probably 77. I like to think I would be smart enough to just call here, although it's likely that the results made me more sure of it and in the heat of the moment i might be like "um only JJ or JT exactly beat me" and pushed without realizing quickly enough that its probably not the best play Link to post Share on other sites
trystero 0 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 wow,.2hr and 20 min between post and resultsI'm raising to 10k on river and hoping he pushesI lead this flop about 45% of the time.I don't think I lead this flop. He raised pf in MP1 and is likely to c-bet an overpair or AK. At that point I'm trying to get it all in here and am going broke to JJ. If he reraises then I push. If he just calls I'm attacking the turn / pushing river. Leading is ok though as you hope to 3-bet. We unfortunately have no information until his push, as he played the hand just like a whiffed AK, but I think Zach's right - we shouldn't push here ourselves. I don't think you can put JT in his likely range unless he's seriously LAG. Same for 89. I guess you can give him 77. We know that he can't have TT. So you have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and AKs / AQs. And out of those, which hands would reraise this river. JJ. Wouldn't QQ+ just call the river trying to get a cheap showdown? Same goes for the nut flush with a paired board, though a lot of players I suppose would raise it up here.I would push anyway in the heat of the moment because I don't really put my opponent on hands enough online. I would have forgotten that he had raised pf and I would stupidly assume that he has pocket 5s or some sh!t. Link to post Share on other sites
Teavis 0 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Why is he min raising with JJ before the flop? Does he hate money?I think I would go broke on this hand too...well...maybe. I think something like J-10 suited is a reasonable holding here. Could we maybe min reraise the river back? If he has JJ or J10 he pushes, but if he has 77 or anything less, he now realizes your weakish bet means extreme strength and will likely just call. In essence, you just put him in the same situation he put you in, a call or push situation. Then you lose 6000 instead of everything if he pushes. Maybe that's sort of crazy, and in the heat of the moment I probably would never think of doing it, but its just an idea. Am I crazy? Link to post Share on other sites
Sefaje 0 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Could we maybe min reraise the river back? If he has JJ or J10 he pushes, but if he has 77 or anything less, he now realizes your weakish bet means extreme strength and will likely just call. In essence, you just put him in the same situation he put you in, a call or push situation. Then you lose 6000 instead of everything if he pushes. Maybe that's sort of crazy, and in the heat of the moment I probably would never think of doing it, but its just an idea. Am I crazy?Yes, you are. raising will win us no more money. it will also lose us more if we are behind and give us a tough decision if he goes all in."Then you lose 6000 instead of everything if he pushes" so why not just call and lose even less? after his river raise we should be getting to showdown immediately. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 results are impacting this discussion.in a 3+r that flushes are re-raisng the river!!!!!!hell, trips are leading it.and I sometimes lead the flop Trystereo so I can put in the second raise. Same reason I lead with a set often. Sometimes I lead with air, so I' like to show a strong hand this time I lead Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 with these stacks ill go broke every time. Im not folding a boat without it being clearer that im beaten when winning pushes me at or near the top of the leader board. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 with these stacks ill go broke every time. Im not folding a boat without it being clearer that im beaten when winning pushes me at or near the top of the leader board.What do you have as his range? Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 What do you have as his range?yours without the bottom 3, plus AQ and AK. Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted September 22, 2006 Share Posted September 22, 2006 You really think he EVER minraises the river with AK/AQ? AsKs and AsQs yes - but they would come under my heading of AsXs.As6s+ (I think he would have bet the flop with many of these hands, so I'm not too convinced)JJ77JTATs, KTs, QTs, T9s (usually he would bet the flop with a lone 10 or at least raise the turn, so even weighting it to suited 10's is a little optimistic IMO)Against this range we are 65%, so we obviously aren't folding to a min raise. (Yeah, that much is obvious I know)The question is, if we push does he call with the lone 10? Unlikely. Does he call with a flush? Maybe. Even just removing [AT, KT, QT, T9] puts us at 54%. If he occasionally folds a flush we are an underdog.I can't see the value of pushing. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 Simo,I have been called quite recently by:A gut shot getting whatever my last 1200 into a 1000 pot gave himand J4 on a 248 Q board after I c/r him on flop and lead-pushed the turn ( he was getting <2:1)countless countless countless times with similar stories.yes, flushes call this, trips call this.btw, my examples were from a 6 Man $33 STT where u only need to gamble enough to beat 4 others to cash, not a $3r; where I'd assume the gambling is rampit Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 0 Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 Okay, they call the allin regularly. There is still more chance of them folding trips than them folding jacks full. How often would two unpaired spades check the flop? I don't think very often. How often would a 10 check the flop? Again, I don't think very often. How often would top 2 or top set check the flop? I would think fairly often.We need to weight the possibilities towards the hands that beat us.Looking at the figures (in Pokerstove) I think we are a slight favourite if we are called, but it does require him to check the flop with unpaired suited spades and a 10 quite often, which I don't agree with. It also requires that the few times villain does check the flop with spades or a 10, he doesn't raise on the turn with the draw or trips. I reluctantly agree that we do get called by flushes and trips some/most of the time. The problem is, I really don't see him having those hands that often. For example: We stack him if he has 55, but he can't really have 55 here.I think it's a close run thing, but I still don't like pushing here. Simply put, the hands that beat us fit the betting pattern. The hands we beat don't fit the betting pattern.Then again I am a weak tight, overaggressive push-bot so I could just be getting confused. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted September 23, 2006 Author Share Posted September 23, 2006 As I played this hand, I put him on JJ.I still pushed.That's my problem. I'm pushing against my read.I wanted to think I was still ahead of his range, but his play stinks of JJ, ainec, IMO.Again, I still pushed. But I think a better player, or a player who trusts their reads enough, can avoid going broke with this hand, especially since it's the 2nd hour of a rebuy tourney and we are deep as hell.- Zach Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Srsly, he had J's? **** me, it's like I was playing your hand. I'd have raised the river to 10K, minimum. Pushing is highly likely, though. As someone (Danny G?) said, it's usually NOT going to be JJ, so pushing is nearly insta.However, your response regarding your read is a valid point. Confidence in your reads is of supreme importance. If, every now and then, you lay down the best hand, that's the way it goes. If, 90% of the time, you lay down a beaten hand, you're doing really, really well. Use the Force, Luke. Link to post Share on other sites
TB17 0 Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 In a 3 rebuy I shove allllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll day. The things people pay you off with are ridiculous. To call is so -ev. Link to post Share on other sites
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