Qjs - Top Pair Turn Play

[Zach6668 513]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)CO ($66.50)Button ($89.95)SB ($47.50)BB ($27.60)UTG ($187.95)UTG+1 ($64.70)MP1 ($102.60)Hero ($122.20)MP3 ($84.50)Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q , J . 2 folds, MP1 calls $1, Hero calls $1, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.Flop: ($4) 8 , Q , 5 (4 players)SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets $3, Hero raises to $9, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls $6.Turn: ($22) 4 (2 players)MP1 bets $13, Hero ...Villain is 18/6/9.0 after 90 hands.

[PimpRock 0]

Smells a lot like a block bet... I kinda flit in and out of using PT because it is so cumbersome after 50k hands BUT I gotta ask... 18 / 6 / 9.018% VPIP?6% raise? What is 9.0? If I know that I can start giving more educated responses. I shoulda asked a long time ago lol.

[simo_8ball 0]

I don't use PT and I'm unsure of how to interpret those stats.I think his range is something like KQ/QJ/QT/55/88/67, or spades.Most likely hand is 67 given the action but the key is that you can only beat a strangely played spade draw or QT. You have little scope for improvement, and the reverse implied odds are significant here. If this was the river you call, but on the turn this should be a fold, I think.

[Scott3705 0]

Smells a lot like a block bet... I kinda flit in and out of using PT because it is so cumbersome after 50k hands BUT I gotta ask... 18 / 6 / 9.018% VPIP?6% raise? What is 9.0? If I know that I can start giving more educated responses. I shoulda asked a long time ago lol.

9.0 is the Aggression factor. It's basically a relative gauge of a player's tendencies to bet/raise instead of calling. (either post flop or all streets depending on the way you set it). I really haven't figured how to interpret it over small samples at NL, but 9.0 is very high.18VPIP means that he's not limping w/ suited aces and suited connectors doesn't it? So ti's kinda hard to include a ton of draws.Either way... Key to this hand is getting to showdown cheaplly. I'd like a raise to $30 on the turn with intentions to fold to a reraise and check most river cards.

[simo_8ball 0]

I just think that a stop and go with a flush draw is a fairly rare play. If this was a block bet, it's a large one. I would expect him to more often than not have either a queen, a set or the straight.Raising to $30 doesn't make him fold anything (maybe Q9/QT, but you are beating those anyway). What do you do if he bets out 1/2 pot on a blank river? A spade river?I would say that you are at best 40% against his expected range on the turn, but the reverse implied odds are fairly large.[500th post! - only 11,000 more to catch up to Actuary]

[nomad_monad 0]

I just think that a stop and go with a flush draw is a fairly rare play. If this was a block bet, it's a large one. I would expect him to more often than not have either a queen, a set or the straight.Raising to $30 doesn't make him fold anything (maybe Q9/QT, but you are beating those anyway). What do you do if he bets out 1/2 pot on a blank river? A spade river?I would say that you are at best 40% against his expected range on the turn, but the reverse implied odds are fairly large.[500th post! - only 11,000 more to catch up to Actuary]

i think the purpose of the raise is mainly to get to a free river showdown - we raise here and villain likely checks it to us on the river unless he's really got us smoked. the extra money we put in the pot right now with a raise is going to be less than any river bet we likely face if we just call. we're not looking to really fold anything with the raise. in fact, scott's suggested raise is perfect - it might still keep worse hands in the pot. and it's probably enough juice where a monster would be forced to reveal itself now.if we get bet at again on the river, i would fold to anything more than a 1/3 pot bet.

[simo_8ball 0]

I'll be honest, I have no idea what the stats suggest. He is fairly tight, and he is very aggressive. What is the 6 and how does that translate to his style?If, as you say, he isn't limping with suited connectors and suited aces, I don't really know what we are beating.

[aim786 0]

9.0 is the Aggression factor. It's basically a relative gauge of a player's tendencies to bet/raise instead of calling. (either post flop or all streets depending on the way you set it). I really haven't figured how to interpret it over small samples at NL, but 9.0 is very high.18VPIP means that he's not limping w/ suited aces and suited connectors doesn't it? So ti's kinda hard to include a ton of draws.Either way... Key to this hand is getting to showdown cheaplly. I'd like a raise to $30 on the turn with intentions to fold to a reraise and check most river cards.

1) I'd just like to add, if a player folds alot postflop, his agression factor will also be high.2) 18 VPIP definitely includes suited aces/connectors.I like a raise/fold line on the turn here.

I'll be honest, I have no idea what the stats suggest. He is fairly tight, and he is very aggressive. What is the 6 and how does that translate to his style?If, as you say, he isn't limping with suited connectors and suited aces, I don't really know what we are beating.

This stat tells you what percentage of hands this player raises preflop. For example, if this stat was 1% (over a large sample size), and the player raised preflop, he almost always has AA/KK.

[Scott3705 0]

2) 18 VPIP definitely includes suited aces/connectors.

really? I thought it would have to be out to 25 or so? I'm not that good w/ PT. I'd like some one else's opinion here. Probably Zach cause I know he's good with PT.

[simo_8ball 0]

really? I thought it would have to be out to 25 or so? I'm not that good w/ PT. I'd like some one else's opinion here. Probably Zach cause I know he's good with PT.

I think knowing this is key to the question.I still think I like folding, unless he is going to be playing a fair amount of suited connectors/aces. I think this is oddly played if it is a flush draw.

[Scott3705 0]

I think knowing this is key to the question.I still think I like folding, unless he is going to be playing a fair amount of suited connectors/aces. I think this is oddly played if it is a flush draw.

This is oddly played for all hands. It's weird for top pair, it's weird for an overpair, it's weird for a set, etc... which is why I think getting to showdown as cheaply as possible is what we should be looking to do. I think it's weak to fold to this bet. We just need to be careful.

[simo_8ball 0]

This is oddly played for all hands. It's weird for top pair, it's weird for an overpair, it's weird for a set, etc... which is why I think getting to showdown as cheaply as possible is what we should be looking to do. I think it's weak to fold to this bet. We just need to be careful.

I know it's odd, but I think this fits 67 best, and KQ reasonably well. It looks to me like a value bet.I'm hardly ever weak (I'm usually overly aggressive), but for some reason I have a desire to fold here. Meh.

[Peak01 0]

I don't think he is bluffing here. The 4h is not a card I see to many people bluffing into a flop raiser with. What is he trying to represent? Only a donkey would bluff here in my opinion and without a read on the player I most likely give this up. Maybe its weak but I don't like my kicker either.

[aim786 0]

really? I thought it would have to be out to 25 or so? I'm not that good w/ PT. I'd like some one else's opinion here. Probably Zach cause I know he's good with PT.

I'm prolly a bigger PT junkie than Zach, but I'm sure he'll tell you that Just for the record, an 18/6 player (full ring) is what a lot of players look like. In fact, most of the posters here, twoplutwo, etc, fall very close to that range.Looking at pokerstove for a rather general range: 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,AJo+,KQoThis is about 18.6% of all hands. As you can see, just about everything you play falls into this range. Therefore, there is still a strong possibility that villain can have a variety of flush draws.

This is oddly played for all hands. It's weird for top pair, it's weird for an overpair, it's weird for a set, etc... which is why I think getting to showdown as cheaply as possible is what we should be looking to do. I think it's weak to fold to this bet. We just need to be careful.

This is why I like the raise/fold line you mentioned earlier. You charge his draw if he is indeed block betting, and at the same time you can safely muck to a push.

[Merby 3]

He has you beat.I put him on (at worst) AQ, and probably a set. The key thing here is that you have position on him. He is TAG, and is not going to just call to try to catch a draw, then lead out when it misses. That is not keeping wih his style.He simply smooth-called the flop because he wanted to see a safe turn before leading out. If you were raising to peel a free card, you will now fold and he wins the pot. If you were raising because you have something, then his play has probably successfully trapped you in the pot until showdown.There is no way i call this bet (and I certainly do not raise the turn).

[simo_8ball 0]

I'm not quite as certain as you are Merby. I just think it's pretty awkward, and as such I like being a little wuss and folding for the $10 overall loss.

[Merby 3]

I made my response sound certain, but ofcourse I'm not 100% sure we're beat here. Nevertheless, I'm 100% certain that folding is +EV over the long run.What I also didn't add to my response, but was foremost in my mind while typing my response, is that this is rapidly becoming a large pot, and you find yourself in it with top pair, garbage kicker? I LOVE extracting money off players who get married to top pair like this. What happens if the flush hits on the river, and villian leads out for a small (less than 1/3 pot) bet? Are we going to pay it off on a board where every draw hit?I play my top pair hands for cheap pots, or versus really loose opponents (neither is the situation here). If an opponent sticks around with my raise on the flop, then leads out on a seemingly safe turn, warning bells start going off in my head. He was out of position on me, so this makes it difficult for him to safely draw to a drawing hand... His line of play, however, does make perfect sense for top pair or a set... If he has top pair, how many of will be crushed by your J-kicker? Maayyybe QT, but KQ and AQ are far more likely.If he is semi-bluffing a draw here, then I say well done. As far as I'm concerned, this is well played, because he set up his play in such a way as to make top pair fold... and if called, he can still hit on the river. I don't think there is any value in calling/raising to see if he took this approach. Cheers.Merby

[Scott3705 0]

What I also didn't add to my response, but was foremost in my mind while typing my response, is that this is rapidly becoming a large pot, and you find yourself in it with top pair, garbage kicker? I LOVE extracting money off players who get married to top pair like this. What happens if the flush hits on the river, and villian leads out for a small (less than 1/3 pot) bet? Are we going to pay it off on a board where every draw hit?

no. He's he going to bluff 1/3 the pot w/ less than top pair? probably not. If it's another block bet against a flush, then he had you on the turn and you can fold. The river is very easy to play if we raise the turn.

I play my top pair hands for cheap pots, or versus really loose opponents (neither is the situation here). If an opponent sticks around with my raise on the flop, then leads out on a seemingly safe turn, warning bells start going off in my head. He was out of position on me, so this makes it difficult for him to safely draw to a drawing hand... His line of play, however, does make perfect sense for top pair or a set... If he has top pair, how many of will be crushed by your J-kicker? Maayyybe QT, but KQ and AQ are far more likely.

What type of players are you playing against that you play top pair/2 pair/set like this? This isn't omaha. We don't have players that wait for safe turns. We have players trying to get 'em all in when they have the best hand and only scare cards can come. I had a thread about 3 months ago about using donkish leads to slow up c-bets and the unanimous decision is that it was retarded to play a big hand like that and that no one really ever would.

If he is semi-bluffing a draw here, then I say well done. As far as I'm concerned, this is well played, because he set up his play in such a way as to make top pair fold... and if called, he can still hit on the river. I don't think there is any value in calling/raising to see if he took this approach.

You have top pair and he put in close to a 1/2 pot bet. you can't fold that. At a minimum you call and see if he slows down. good outcome is he calls and blanks on a draw, great outcome is you fold a better top pair hand since you've reraised this guy twice. Mediocre outcome you get to a cheap show down where you have to be ahead. Edited: something smart out.

[Merby 3]

You raised some good points. Cheers, that's why I visit these forums.

What type of players are you playing against that you play top pair/2 pair/set like this? This isn't omaha. We don't have players that wait for safe turns. We have players trying to get 'em all in when they have the best hand and only scare cards can come.

Very bad players. At my local B and M, since there are so many players willing to chase flush draws for seemingly any price, I have adopted this approach when out of position. If I have pretty much pegged them on the draw, and they raise the flop, looking for the free card to the river, I will just call their raise, then charge them on the turn if the flush doesn't hit. These are the type of players that would even call all-in on the flop if I reraise all-in, so why not let them call it on the turn when they're that much of a bigger dog.Perhaps some of my play and decision-making has atrophied over time while playing at this soft cardroom... But all those ATMs at the tables are sooo hard to ignore...Cheers,Merby

[Zach6668 513]

Something to consider:What hands do you do pull an SNG with?

[simo_8ball 0]

I think the SnG here is something like KQ or a set. You don't want to get overly committed on the flop, and you don't want to give a free river card.Either that or 67. OESD on the flop so you call/'stop', then when you turn the straight you 'go'.If this is a flush draw then I don't understand why it is a $13 bet. If he wanted to draw cheaply I would expect it to be more like $8-$10.Like I say, for once I'm being weak.

[Zach6668 513]

I think the SnG here is something like KQ or a set. You don't want to get overly committed on the flop, and you don't want to give a free river card.Either that or 67. OESD on the flop so you call/'stop', then when you turn the straight you 'go'.If this is a flush draw then I don't understand why it is a $13 bet. If he wanted to draw cheaply I would expect it to be more like $8-$10.Like I say, for once I'm being weak.

Then we clearly aren't beating anything, and at the most, we are drawing to 3 outs to two pair, while drawing dead to the rest.Conclusion: Easy fold vs non-habitual bluffers.Result. I called out of curiousity. River was a blank, he bet $16, I called again, he had 55.

[simo_8ball 0]

Yay, I got it right. I still have no idea if this could be (or how often it is) a flush draw though. As I say, if it is something we are beating I don't understand the turn. I understand it more if it's a made hand.Oh, and we really need an icon/smilie for 'shrug'.

[Scott3705 0]

Help w/ PT

Then we clearly aren't beating anything, and at the most, we are drawing to 3 outs to two pair, while drawing dead to the rest.Conclusion: Easy fold vs non-habitual bluffers.Result. I called out of curiousity. River was a blank, he bet $16, I called again, he had 55.

18/6/9.0 You can have an aggression factor like that w/o bluffing? seriously, i have no idea how to interpret this in NL, or if it is even relevant.

[Money022 0]

My take on the hand before seeing the results was that you were behind, just wasn't sure what to put the villian on. Villian bets 3/4 the pot, calls the reraise, then comes out firing on the turn. It looked too big for a blocking bet, and too small for someone who wanted you out of the hand. Looked to me like he wanted to be called on the turn.