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Accurate Or Totally Way Off


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Your Chances of Flopping... (Assume you have Ad - Kd in the hole) A - A - K / K - K - A 1,088 - 1 2 diamonds & A or K 58.4 - 1 2 diamonds 8.1 - 1 10 - J - Q 310 - 1 10d - Jd - Qd 19,599 - 1 3 of another suit 21.8 - 1 Anything with an A or K 2.08 - 1 (Assume you have Ks - Kc in the hole) K - K & any other card 407 - 1 K - A - A 1,632 - 1 A - A - A 4,899 - 1 K & smaller pair 147 - 1 3 clubs or 3 spades 43.5 - 1 3 diamonds or 3 hearts 33.3 - 1 Anything with 1 K 7.51 - 1Hope it makes sense.I can't tell if this is a complete joke in it's entirety or if some scenerio odds are accurate.How could it be four times more likely to flop quads with PP than the 2nd nut FH or 10 times more likely to flop the highest possible full house?I will try to provide the link tomorrow.

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(Assume you have Ks - Kc in the hole) K - K & any other card 407 - 1 K - A - A 1,632 - 1 A - A - A 4,899 - 1 How could it be four times more likely to flop quads with PP than the 2nd nut FH or 10 times more likely to flop the highest possible full house?
That's the odds of flopping kings full of aces only... not any kings full...
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For quads you need to flop: Kh Kd ?This can be done 6 ways:Kh Kd ?Kh ? KdKd Kh ?Kd ? Kh? Kh Kd? Kd KhSince the ? could be any of the 48 remaining cards thast gives:48*6 = 228 flops which give you quads.For kings for of aces You need to flop one of:Kh As AcKh As AdKh As AhKh Ac AdKh Ac AhKh Ad AhKd As AcKd As AdKd As AhKd Ac AdKd Ac AhKd Ad AhBut each of those can be ordered 6 ways (as shown above with the quads).So 12*6 = 72.Since 228 > 72 you are more likely to flop quads than King full of aces.You could also do the more common, probability calculations, but when there's a small number of possibilities just enumerating them all works...

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For quads you need to flop: Kh Kd ?This can be done 6 ways:Kh Kd ?Kh ? KdKd Kh ?Kd ? Kh? Kh Kd? Kd KhSince the ? could be any of the 48 remaining cards thast gives:48*6 = 228 flops which give you quads.For kings for of aces You need to flop one of:Kh As AcKh As AdKh As AhKh Ac AdKh Ac AhKh Ad AhKd As AcKd As AdKd As AhKd Ac AdKd Ac AhKd Ad AhBut each of those can be ordered 6 ways (as shown above with the quads).So 12*6 = 72.Since 228 > 72 you are more likely to flop quads than King full of aces.You could also do the more common, probability calculations, but when there's a small number of possibilities just enumerating them all works...
Still completely lost because in the 1st equation you provide you fail to account for all the other possible flops where you'll miss hitting a king all together.I can't see how your odds of flopping kings is 1 in 228 flops.if you are trying to say that there are 228 possible flops that can provide quads for a pocket pair of kings, I understand that but that still convince me that your odds of flopping quads WITH ANY PARTICULAR PAIR is 407 to 1.
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