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Quiz Question #21


No Limit Hold'em  

348 members have voted

  1. 1. What would you do?

    • Call
      199
    • Fold
      149


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Call.The ME is virtually a crap shoot anyways. You have to bust sooner or later, and considering that 90% of the field isn't going to cash...you might as well take the chance. So what if I lose? If I have 10K to get into the WSOP, then I can afford to lose. Yeah, it's ten thousand dollars, but I wouldn't be in the ME if I couldn't afford to lose it. Besides, depending on the situation, I might have paid $100 in a satellite to get in, gotten lucky, etc....If you lose, then you lose, that's why it's gambling. So, just call, and hope they hold up.

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By folding this 60/40 edge you've resigned yourself psychologically to playing scared. Let's say it was only a $5 sit n go and somehow you know the opponent had QJh. Would you call? I know I would; it's only a $5 SNG. Of course, $10,000 can't really compare to $5 but that's exactly the point. You can't let the buy-in amount affect your game at all. Whether you're first out or get knocked out on the bubble you'll make zero. The whole point of any tournament is to end up with all the chips BY making positive equity decisions.Sometimes you get lucky and other times unlucky, but hopefully you'll make correct choices and that's the best you can do.

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This is really not that difficult a situation. You know what your opponent has and you are a 3 to 2 favorite against that hand. So you are ahead. At some point in the tournament, you will need to gamble to accumulate chips and to win. It's as simple as that. In this case, you have been given a golden opportunity by your opponent because em has exposed em's hand. This is a simple call. The fact that there is a 40% risk should not deter a call. If I knew he had a made hand pre-flop, I think that this would be an entirely different situation. Also, the fact that all other players have mucked prior to the blinds makes it seem likely that no one had an ace so I would have three outs there. It is more likely that players mucked a king, queen or jack, especially on the first hand of the WSOP.

This is really not that difficult a situation. You know what your opponent has and you are a 3 to 2 favorite against that hand. So you are ahead. At some point in the tournament, you will need to gamble to accumulate chips and to win. It's as simple as that. In this case, you have been given a golden opportunity by your opponent because em has exposed em's hand. This is a simple call. The fact that there is a 40% risk should not deter a call. If I knew he had a made hand pre-flop, I think that this would be an entirely different situation. Also, the fact that all other players have mucked prior to the blinds makes it seem likely that no one had an ace so I would have three outs there. It is more likely that players mucked a king, queen or jack, especially on the first hand of the WSOP.
Oh, and I forgot to add that with Phil and Gus at the table, two famously aggressive players, I would bet that they would not have mucked an ace or a king, jack type of hand.
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I would call in a heartbeat. Folding here is a scared play. If you think Hansen and Ivey are going to give you a whole lot of better places to get your money in, you're fooling yourself. I dont know Ivey's style, but Gus will be in a LOT of pots. If you dont gamble with a positive edge, you may as well read a book until they move you. Doubling up now will tell Gus et al that you aren't afraid to get your chips in, AND it will put you in a position where nobody can attack any more than half your stack...at least until someone catches up.A call is HUGELY +EV. Early in a tourney, equity is closely represented by stack size. Given that, doubling up 60% of the time increases your equity by 20% to 12k. If I get the opportunity to make 2k in equity in 2 minutes of play at the ME, I'd be a fool to pass it up. Plus if I bust out, I haven't wasted 5 days donking off my equity.

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It's risk-reward, basically. Being an extremely deep-stacked tournament, and having the opportunity to double-up and being the big stack at a table with Ivey and Hansen gives you room to see a couple more flops and get unlucky or make a couple mistakes without your chip stack being too afflicted. The risk? A possible inevitability that probably will happen sometime between the first hand and the third or fourth day... being sent home down 10k. I say why the hell not?

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I would call in a heartbeat. Folding here is a scared play. If you think Hansen and Ivey are going to give you a whole lot of better places to get your money in, you're fooling yourself. I dont know Ivey's style, but Gus will be in a LOT of pots. If you dont gamble with a positive edge, you may as well read a book until they move you. Doubling up now will tell Gus et al that you aren't afraid to get your chips in, AND it will put you in a position where nobody can attack any more than half your stack...at least until someone catches up.A call is HUGELY +EV. Early in a tourney, equity is closely represented by stack size. Given that, doubling up 60% of the time increases your equity by 20% to 12k. If I get the opportunity to make 2k in equity in 2 minutes of play at the ME, I'd be a fool to pass it up. Plus if I bust out, I haven't wasted 5 days donking off my equity.
Where do you come up with that? Also, you don't "make 2K in 2 minutes" because you still have to outlast 10,000 more people. I'm not saying don't call, I'm just saying that the increased edge isn't nearly as big, or as easily defined as you have it here.
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Where do you come up with that? Also, you don't "make 2K in 2 minutes" because you still have to outlast 10,000 more people. I'm not saying don't call, I'm just saying that the increased edge isn't nearly as big, or as easily defined as you have it here.
He's talking about chip equity, not money equity.....the problem is, they're not equal (ie. in wsop me 06, the winner got 90 million chips, but only 12 million dollars).60% of the time you get 20000 chips...40% you get 0 chips...meaning your equity is 12000.Another way to look at it...60% of the time you go +10000 = +600040% of the time you go -10000 = -4000The total EV is +2000...ergo, 12000. (actually slightly less because you've already committed 50 chips)Another way to look at it...if you played this tournament every month, and this exact scenario happened everytime, averaged out it would be like you started with 12k vs. everyone else's 10k, for every tournament.
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I know how to calculate equity and EV. I think he's confused because he has equity in the POT, but at this stage, his equity in the tournament is altered by such a small amount that it almost doesn't matter.He increases his chip stack by 20% (on average, by calling) which is not the same as increasing his equity by 20%.He also comments that if he "busts, he won't waste 5 days donking off his equity" but really it takes 3 days to really gain any true measurable equity in the tournament becuase it's not until day 3 that you get into the money and can actually assign a monetary value to your chips because you are guaranteed to get paid for them.

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Several answers:1. Why not?
Because some people might hesitate to give an opinion contrary to Daniel's.
Are you that insecure that it would change your answer?
no.
A good dozen people have responded "fold" since I posted this...it is, after all, a poll, and simply because DN says "call" doesn't mean it's correct....that I agree with his article is irrelevent. If you do these quizzes just to see if you give the same answer as DN, then you can continue being a sycophant...I do the quizzes to see what people say, and what intelligent opinions are generated, both in agreement and disagreement with DN's eventual answer.2. To see if DN has changed his mind since he wrote that.
You can see that if you don't post the article here.
3. To generate discussion.
That was the purpose of the question as well, and I think DN is perfectly capable of putting his own answer in the question if that's what he wanted.
4. To cut to the chase.5. Because.
That's not a reason.
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This is a super easy call. If your thought process is that you want to avoid marginal situations for all your chips think of it this way: By calling, 60% of the time you can have a player all in twice as a 60-40 favorite and go out only 16% of the time. By folding, 100% you can be all in twice as a 60-40 favorite and you will go out 74% of the time.40+.16*.60= .496 chance of getting out1.0-.6*.6= .74 chance of getting out.Thus, by taking the first gamble your stack can withstand later marginal situations. By not taking the gamble, you will have a much harder time withstanding the marginal situations.

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Easy call.Phil H. said to win the WSOP now you must win about 9 coin flips during the tourney (paraphrased). This isnt even a flip, you are way ahead.Like a previous poster stated, if I dont play this now, I play scared until the final table. I wont make the final table unless the poker gods give me a winning AA hand every lap of the button. I would be too timid to play much else.I take advantage of the edge and call.

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If said opponent is that terrible, someone will get his chips very quickly... it might as well be you.

If its me I call. If we are talking about DN then I would probably fold.
This is the correct answer.
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Based on recent information the obvious answer is fold. All you need to do now is wait for a color up and you'll get way more than 10k in chips when the floor screws up...But really, for me, its an easy call. Why not take the chance when you know 100% that you have the lead going in. Unless you see his cards again you'll never know 100% that you are ahead.

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I'm folding...If I think that i'm one of the best players there, i'll pass up this small edge early.
Hi. 60% isn't a small edge.
At last year's WSOP didn't Paul Philips muck KK on the 2nd hand to an all in, and the guy had aces?
Possibly. Someone also folded bottom set to a guy that had top set. There is no relevance to your comment.Interesting that this is a 60/40 split with the responses.Try posting this question in tourney strat and find out the responses there.
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There is more to consider than being a 3-2 favorite, you have position on the donkey in the small blind for all but one hand in an orbit so wait until he makes another boneheaded move when you have a bigger edge, and if you have Gus and Phil on your left even if you have a big stack more often than not you're not going to be pushing with aces when you try to bully the table so having a loose aggressive appearance giving up position to those two wouldnt be good, so there are more variables to account for than just a slight edge, so depending on table position and the table image you want to portray a point could be argued for a call or a fold, I personally lean towards a fold but if Gus and Phil were on my right I might consider calling But thats just my opinion

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You are slightly more likely to win than if your opponent limped in the SB with Q :D J :D, you chose to check in the BB with two black tens, the flop came T :D 9 :) 2 :club:, and your opponent pushed all-in and accidentally exposed his hand to show he had the straight flush draw.Would anyone really fold the nuts there? If you would call there, wouldn't it be stupid to fold in a situation where you have an even greater chance of winning, because that is what people who advocate folding the AK are doing?

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Easy call. I don't care if it is the first hand or the bubble, CALL! You know you are a favorite, so if your hand holds up then you have an immediate 2-1 chip lead on your table and probably the field. Then you can play the more conservative approach if you want, but how many times in the tourney are you going to putting your chips at risk when you are NOT the favorite but have too many outs NOT to call? I would rather put them in when I KNOW I am a favorite. Here's an example of a hand that I played in a home tourney over the weekend:Person to my right goes all in, usually a tight player. She can easily be put on top pair with a good kicker. (Flop= 10d-Jd-4c) and I am holding Qd-Kd so therfore I have a buttload of outs. I debate for a little while, then I call her All-in which put me almost all in, virtually out of the tourney on the bubble if I lose. Top 3 paid and I would have finished in 4th after only have less than a BB left after calling. I Call her and hit a K on the turn to take the hand. Did I have the best hand at the point of the call? Not really, I did have the best drawing hand, but if I don't hit then I am left with nothing, if her hand holds up then she wins. My point is, you have to risk your tourney life at some point during these marathons or sprints, might as well be when you KNOW you are the favorite and hope that your hand holds up. I don't think either of us played that hand poorly, we each did what we thought was the right decision. If that works for you, then play your game and damn the torpedos!!!Just my opinion and like assholes, everyone has one and most of them stink.

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Raise preflop. That's where you went wrong. You have position and a strong hand - take advantage of it.
Fine, you raise preflop, he calls, and he pushes in as first to act on the flop. Or it's 88 vs t9s on a 872 flop. A raise won't make much of a difference in the pot odds, given the starting stack size and the blinds, and if you do raise enough to distort the pot odds, you're an idiot.
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call or fold?
I would insta-call because my goal is to win tournaments. I know I will have to get into a "race" at some point or another, and putting my money in with 3-to-2 odds would be good enough for me seeing as if I did possibly wait until later, I could get the money in worse (as in even) with AK over QQ or something like that. I had a play similiar to this last night on FTP (24+2 MTT) when this super aggressive guy kept moving in on my blind. Even though I couldn't see his cards like this example, I knew what he was doing and I just waited for my spot. The guy's play eventually catches up to him and he has about 1050 left. With the blinds at 100/200 (I have about 1700, just not catching cards but winning smallish pots to stay alive), I look down at AdKd in my BB. The maniac SB moves in, and I even blurt out, "He probably has 109 or something". I called and he did have 109! The fact he caught trip 9's was irrelavent as I made the correct play, in my view. Yeah, I could have folded and waited for an even better spot, but as Sammy Farha says, "You have to gamble to win". And if you gamble, going in with the best of it is the way to go.It's an easy call, and if you get bad beated, just say, "Nice hand" and move on.
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Fine, you raise preflop, he calls, and he pushes in as first to act on the flop. Or it's 88 vs t9s on a 872 flop. A raise won't make much of a difference in the pot odds, given the starting stack size and the blinds, and if you do raise enough to distort the pot odds, you're an idiot.
I think you missed the point of my post.
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