Flopped Set, But I Think I'm Beat

[BrnngLeaves 0]

I've been playing pretty TAG at this table. Villain is 15/5.5/2PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)UTG ($24.05)UTG+1 ($20.50)MP1 ($49.95)MP2 ($48)Hero ($50)CO ($45.75)Button ($47.50)SB ($48.50)BB ($27.65)Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9 , 9 . 4 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, Button raises to $6, 2 folds, Hero calls $4.Flop: ($12.75) 9 , A , K (2 players)Hero checks, Button checks.Turn: ($12.75) T (2 players)Hero checks, Button bets $6, Hero calls $6.River: ($24.75) 2 (2 players)Hero checks, Button bets $16, Hero calls $16.Final Pot: $56.75I kind of hate the line i took.

[PimpRock 0]

I would be leading the flop every time, what a great spot to build a huge pot, also, given the turn, I would be looking to get all the money in here so just in case he has got QQ, AQ etc, your charging the straight draw. Quite simply put, at these levels, and a whole bunch of levels above, and ALMOST without exception is a cash game, if I am unfortunate enough to go set against set, Im more than happy (kinda, but you get my point) to go broke. Thats why we have bankrolls.

[BrnngLeaves 0]

The fact that we got reraised preflop by a 5% preflop raiser doesn't bother you at all?

[matt21sz 0]

The fact that we got reraised preflop by a 5% preflop raiser doesn't bother you at all?

Without knowing a little more about the button, I would not be too concerned with his 5% preflop stat. His location (on the button) tells me that he wants to force the blinds out of the pot and isolate you.Like pimprock stated above, I would prefer to be leading at this flop every time. Perhaps a bet in the range of 3/4 of the pot looks good to meHis betting to me screams AQ (good for you), maybe even AK (good for you). At low to mid limits, I'm trying to get most/all of my money in the middle with a set like that. If I'm up against set over set, so be it, but if I could get it in everytime I'd be thrilled.

[NoSup4U 0]

The fact that we got reraised preflop by a 5% preflop raiser doesn't bother you at all?

With is VPIP being 15%, this isn't exactly rock tight. Not saying he's not tight, but a reraise pf doesn't have to mean AA or KK. You have a set, if you got overset, you lost the minimum.I bet the flop, expect a raise, and get my money in.Mark

[Canada 0]

I hear what you are saying about a 5% raiser re-popping it, but to give this the weight you are you would have to have quite a few hundred hands against him.Assuming this was the case, 5% pfr's don't reraise with much less than AA,KK,QQ,AK. They don't isolate with mediocre holdings and they don't try to set you up to take the pot off you with nothing.All that said of the above range there are 15 combo's that will get all the money in on the flop. 6 combo's you lose to, 9 combos you are beating. So getting it all in is good for you. Lead out looking to get raisedIf you think his range is wider then checking the flop might be better to extract value from hands like QQ, JJ, TT which he can get away from on a flop lead. (Checking won't affect the AA,KK,AK hands as they will call an all-in any time.)After he checks the flop it's a safe bet he hasn't got AQ,QQ-TT, but you are still left with the 9/15 so don't be scared to get it all in. The only caveat to all this is if he doesn't always (<60%) reraise AK preflop, but that would take a monster read

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

Check/raise the turn..if he re-raises, then lay it down.

[krup24 0]

Check/raise the turn..if he re-raises, then lay it down.

You don't think he would reraise with AK here cause I definitely do.I don't see AA or KK although its possible, I really think the only hand that beats us here is TT.

[No_Neck 0]

If he has AA, or KK you go broke, just make sure you get all the money in the middle. you can't be scared of AA or KK every reraised hand. You will lose to money. If you have played with him for 1000 hands and he has never reraised maybe lay it down.

[subsin 0]

definately lead the flop, screams like you have a strong ace or he does, when he re-raises, move allin

[sdnuol 0]

lead at the flop because of the straight cardslead at the turn because of the flush cardsdon't slowplay a set the majority of the time.

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

If he has AA, or KK you go broke make sure you get all the money in the middle. you can't be scared of AA or KK every reraised hand. You will lose to money. If you have played with him for 1000 hands and he has never reraised maybe lay it down.

WOW, weird, we've got 4 streets of betting here, and we're going broke, but, we're willing to fold KK with 4 BB's in. Contradictory and then some...and yes, Krup. You did catch it. I was wondering if anyone would notice, but obviously I don't lay this down. Not at this limit, not with this action, never. For any reason. I'm finding some way way to get all my chips in. As played, check/raise the turn, push river.

[canadapoker5 0]

With this situation I would push considerably

[iggymcfly 0]

Actually, I don't hate this line. On the flop, you figure that the PF reraiser is betting regardless of his hand, so you check to him, and then when he checks behind, that sets off some serious warning bells, especially when you were already concerned about a big pair. At this point, I'd put him on a range of AA, KK, AK. That's it. Three hands and a total of 15 combinations. Of those, we're beating 9 and losing to 6. However, he's somewhat more likely to reraise PF with AA or KK, and he's more likely to check behind on the flop with AA than the other two since he's going to be worried that he has the board dominated. I think in this spot, we're actually ahead maybe 40% of the time. The AK possibility is strong enough to warrant a call-down, but I don't see any reason that you'd want to bloat the pot.I would love to know how this betting screams AQ. I think that reasoning "screams" of imagining hands you can beat. AQ smooth-calls PF 95% of the time from this tight of a player, and it bets the flop about 95% of the time as well. I would be very, very, surprised if villian had AQ in this situation.