PimpRock 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 Pllaying the 55 MTT on party earlier I found myself with about 3000 chips going into level 4 after a bad beat 10 hands earlier took me down from about 7500. Blinds around 100/200UTG calls (slight concern as he is a decent player with around 6000 chips), I limp with 88 from MP, the sb folds and the BB (Massive chip leader, loose as hell and the reason I didnt raise, checks).Flop is 5 6 7 and is checked in three spots to me. I bet 700 into the 700 pot and the BB calls (?) and utg ships it all in...I got about 2100 left (10 BBs) , there is about 2800 in the pot. im guessing Im behind, is this an automatic call? Link to post Share on other sites
NicksDad1970 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 I would have raised preflop no matter how loose that fella was. Besides getting a set this is about the best flop you could have. Since you're in last position and you bet 700, you get a call and a push I would think you're behind. Was there a flush draw out there? Link to post Share on other sites
NicksDad1970 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 If you call and it gets heads up and he has something like 5-7 then you're almost a coin flip. I think you would have like 13 outs8,8,6,6,6,4,4,4,4,9,9,9,9......I'm on pain meds so I could be missing something else. But if he's loose I'd push. Link to post Share on other sites
monix 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 Pllaying the 55 MTT on party earlier I found myself with about 3000 chips going into level 4 after a bad beat 10 hands earlier took me down from about 7500. Blinds around 100/200UTG calls (slight concern as he is a decent player with around 6000 chips), I limp with 88 from MP, the sb folds and the BB (Massive chip leader, loose as hell and the reason I didnt raise, checks).Flop is 5 6 7 and is checked in three spots to me. I bet 700 into the 700 pot and the BB calls (?) and utg ships it all in...I got about 2100 left (10 BBs) , there is about 2800 in the pot. im guessing Im behind, is this an automatic call?With an M of 10, mid-pocket-pairs are tough to play. You have to put in 10% of your stack, and hope for a set; you only have a 1 in 8 chance of flopping one, and you often don't have the implied odds to justify the investment (your opponents are unlikely to put in 1,600 even if you do flop the set).I'd be inclined to fold this hand pre-flop. If was folded to me in late position, I'd put in a raise to pick up the blinds. Now, if I was shorter stacked, push all-in with only 1 limper.If you don't flop a set, you are throwing the hand away, or have a very difficult decsion with a draw, such as this one. SInce we are in this hand, we have to figure out what to do...You said villain is a decent player, so let's assume thathe has a good hand to check raise 2 players. If he has a set, 2 pair or a made striaght, here is how you stack up:Board: 7c 6d 5h Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 37.9959 % 36.15% 01.84% { 88 }Hand 2: 62.0041 % 60.16% 01.84% { 77-55, 98s, 75s+, 65s, 98o, 75o+, 65o }You are a 1.6:1 underdog against this this range, and the pot is iffering 1.3:1 Plus, you are out if you lose. If you fold you still have a bad but not crippled M of 7...this analysis suggests a fold. Link to post Share on other sites
PimpRock 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Author Share Posted August 16, 2006 Holy **** that was thorough... Thank you. Link to post Share on other sites
monix 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 Holy **** that was thorough... Thank you.Thank you, but it may be wrong. It will be interesting what others say. Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 If UTG pushes, then there is 4,200 in the pot; not 2,800 right?Starting Pot (700) + your bet (700) + BB call (700) + UTG Push (your remaining 2100).You are getting 2-1 on the call, not 1.3-1 then.Monix's calc of 1.6-1 which correlates to the simplistic method of ten outs twice (2 8's, 4 9's, 4 4's) indicates that from a pot odds calculation, this could be call.However, if you lose, you are out. On the other hand, could UTB be bluffing into a pot bet and call (probably not unless he was a maniac).Sounds like you are below average and in need of some chips to make a run at the FT - I would call this. Link to post Share on other sites
PimpRock 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Author Share Posted August 16, 2006 If UTG pushes, then there is 4,200 in the pot; not 2,800 right?Starting Pot (700) + your bet (700) + BB call (700) + UTG Push (your remaining 2100).You are getting 2-1 on the call, not 1.3-1 then.Monix's calc of 1.6-1 which correlates to the simplistic method of ten outs twice (2 8's, 4 9's, 4 5's) indicates that from a pot odds calculation, this could be call.However, if you lose, you are out. On the other hand, could UTB be bluffing into a pot bet and call (probably not unless he was a maniac).Sounds like you are below average and in need of some chips to make a run at the FT - I would call this.That was exactly my thought gobears... I figured the odds to be closer to 2/1 and made the call but I didnt wanna argue with dude's calculations.I think the key thing in my thinking was that I was about half of the average stack size and this was my best shot at getting into the mix. Link to post Share on other sites
NicksDad1970 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 With an M of 10, mid-pocket-pairs are tough to play. You have to put in 10% of your stack, and hope for a set; you only have a 1 in 8 chance of flopping one, and you often don't have the implied odds to justify the investment (your opponents are unlikely to put in 1,600 even if you do flop the set).I'd be inclined to fold this hand pre-flop. If was folded to me in late position, I'd put in a raise to pick up the blinds. Now, if I was shorter stacked, push all-in with only 1 limper.If you don't flop a set, you are throwing the hand away, or have a very difficult decsion with a draw, such as this one. SInce we are in this hand, we have to figure out what to do...You said villain is a decent player, so let's assume thathe has a good hand to check raise 2 players. If he has a set, 2 pair or a made striaght, here is how you stack up:Board: 7c 6d 5h Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 37.9959 % 36.15% 01.84% { 88 }Hand 2: 62.0041 % 60.16% 01.84% { 77-55, 98s, 75s+, 65s, 98o, 75o+, 65o }You are a 1.6:1 underdog against this this range, and the pot is iffering 1.3:1 Plus, you are out if you lose. If you fold you still have a bad but not crippled M of 7...this analysis suggests a fold.I'm trying to figure some of this out. I show if it was 6-7 or 5-7 then the 88 has about a 49% chance to win it. If that's correct then he should definetly push, right? Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 That was exactly my thought gobears... I figured the odds to be closer to 2/1 and made the call but I didnt wanna argue with dude's calculations.I think the key thing in my thinking was that I was about half of the average stack size and this was my best shot at getting into the mix.I think Monix got the 2,800 pot size from your original post when he did his calculations Based on your M and Q (per Harrington on Holdem Vol. 2), It was the right move as you needed to get some chips to make a run. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 I've been known to push this hand on the flop, instead of pot size bet.Too many over cards can come. Link to post Share on other sites
NicksDad1970 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 I've been known to push this hand on the flop, instead of pot size bet.Too many over cards can come.I think that's also a pretty good point. If he had you preflop then wouldn't he have raised if he was Mr. Loose? Link to post Share on other sites
Ramram84 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 Personally, I would check the flop. 700 is 1/4 of your stack. 1 of two things could happen.1. The loose BB raises and will more than likely get you the same result of the all-in from UTG and this time you can easily fold with 2800 left.2. BB checks and you get to see a free card.My worry in this hand would be that BB is also playing the draw, and if he is as loose as you let on, he will call as well meaning you're playing for a split pot.I would personally like to see the next card if I can before I get myself too invested. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 I would personally like to see the next card if I can before I get myself too invested.why not try to win the 700 in the pot?you only have 2800, 700 more is huge.there are a lot of bad cards that can flop. Link to post Share on other sites
Ramram84 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 I agree that 700 is huge, but making a 700 bet pretty well pot commits us, so why make it?There is a very good chance that UTG is going to check raise this hand with such a loose player in good position. He's going to expect a bet of some sort. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 I agree that 700 is huge, but making a 700 bet pretty well pot commits us, so why make it?There is a very good chance that UTG is going to check raise this hand with such a loose player in good position. He's going to expect a bet of some sort.we pot commit because we have best hand often and combined with the draw, win at showdown enough to do so, especially whenn taking the need to get some chips into consideration.why do you think UTG is looking to c/.r?Aren't we the only ones left to bet?He limped, what indication is there that he wants to c/r? Link to post Share on other sites
Ramram84 0 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 yes, we are the only ones left to bet...my mistake. My last post can be disregarded.I still like the check option however.Let me approach it from a different angle.Before betting the 700, ask yourself...Am I going to call an all-in re-raise? If so, then why not go all-in right now? As actuary has mentioned, 700 is huge right now. It may be a severe overbet, but it puts more pressure on villain. he could very well be making this re-raise with 9-9 10-10 or J-J, so maybe a huge pverbet will push him off these hands. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted August 16, 2006 Share Posted August 16, 2006 I've been known to push this hand on the flop, instead of pot size bet.Too many over cards can come.I'm with this guy.lets push Link to post Share on other sites
reedmcneal 0 Posted August 17, 2006 Share Posted August 17, 2006 I've been known to push this hand on the flop, instead of pot size bet.Too many over cards can come. I'm with this guy.lets pushYou both know what you are talking about.I often disagree with some of your overbets, but not here.I like the push best. Link to post Share on other sites
throwemaway 0 Posted August 17, 2006 Share Posted August 17, 2006 Results? Link to post Share on other sites
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