Bubble, All In Call

[Actuary 3]

6 Man.2 Pay.60/40 payout.3 leftBlinds: 100/200.StacksHero: 6600Button: 3700 SB: 1700Hero Q8sFolds to SB.He pushes, I call.Villain had pushed about 10 times out of 14 from button and this was his 3rd push from SB. Currnt Button said "Aggresive" earlier and he responded with "Low Man". no one had looked him up yet. He was pushing or folding with only a rare limp preflop. He was givng up his blinds to small preflop raises.****************************as usual on Sundays I was losing money.Normally, $150, and I was on my way again.Only reason I'm this far here is I raised all in on the flop with bottom two and sucked out on top/bottom two pair. One of those nights where I wondered if I can play, or just others suck so bad. As long as I stick in the 20's though, probably fine.******************************

[gobears 0]

If he's pushing most hands than Q8s is probably close to 50/50. You're still in 1st if you lose so I would call this and try to knock him out. If you win, then you have a nice chip lead over the other play going into HU.

[Actuary 3]

a nice chip lead over the other play going into HU.

I suck HU.My 1st to 2nd ratio is about 45/55but I digress....

[copernicus 0]

With a 70/30 payout (too lazy to make a new profile for 60/40) against a random hand calling is +1.7% of the prize pool. 60/40 payout would make it closer to 1% most likely.If you put him on pushing with 50% of all hands (which seems a bit more reasonable given that youre the big stack) its -.4% of the prize pool at 70/30, so probably about -1% on A 60/40 payout.Pretty close overall, so Id wait for a better spot.

[simo_8ball 1]

I see this as a simple fold. If he is pushing that regularly you can wait for better than Q8.EDIT: With a 60/40 payout this is a simple fold.

[Actuary 3]

I see this as a simple fold. If he is pushing that regularly you can wait for better than Q8.EDIT: With a 60/40 payout this is a simple fold.

he has a huge range.losing is not putting me in a bad spotI got sick of folding.

[XXEddie 0]

he has a huge range.losing is not putting me in a bad spotI got sick of folding.

dont blame you, i might still fold just because you have such a nice chip advantag and can afford to wait for a better spot

[copernicus 0]

he has a huge range.losing is not putting me in a bad spotI got sick of folding.

Losing drops your equity in the prize pool from 46% to 38%. Winning increases it from 46% to 54%, so a 50% chance of winning is break even, consistent with the SnGPT numbers I posted above. Q8 is breakeven against a random hand, so if youre tired of folding, I cant blame you for going for it. I just dont think hes pushing on any two cards with the big stack behind him.

[Actuary 3]

I just dont think hes pushing on any two cards with the big stack behind him.

for all his pushes, I was behind him.it's 3 handed.

[copernicus 0]

for all his pushes, I was behind him.it's 3 handed.

Obviously. But you didnt see his hands with those pushes, so you dont know the quality of those 3 pushes. I said he wasnt pushing with ANY TWO CARDS with the big stack behind him. Since it sounds like his frequency of pushes from the SB is lower than it was in general, thats a pretty good indication that he does indeed have tighter standards for his SB push. If so then calling with Q8 is clearly -$EV, because its only breakeven versus a random hand.

[Actuary 3]

Obviously. But you didnt see his hands with those pushes, so you dont know the quality of those 3 pushes. I said he wasnt pushing with ANY TWO CARDS with the big stack behind him. Since it sounds like his frequency of pushes from the SB is lower than it was in general, thats a pretty good indication that he does indeed have tighter standards for his SB push. If so then calling with Q8 is clearly -$EV, because its only breakeven versus a random hand.

I wondered why he would push so much more from button.Other guy was folding his button a ton and villain would fold to me.As if stealing from Button is safer ??

[copernicus 0]

I wondered why he would push so much more from button.Other guy was folding his button a ton and villain would fold to me.As if stealing from Button is safer ??

Hand standards is the only thing that makes sense. Another explanation could have been "first in vigorish", which you always have on the button 3 handed, but if the 3rd guy was folding his button a lot, then he would have first in vigorish from the SB a lot, yet his frequency was so much lower than when on the button.

[Gallo 1]

I was almost in same kind of situation. Shortstack pushed like 4-5 hands in a row. Then I was BB and he was SB, he pushed earlier in this spot and I folded. Got tired of it, I called with 8/6s, he had 10/8. I hit my 6, game over. Yeah, I probably shoulda folded, but sometimes you gotta say, "Stop that ****!!"

[simo_8ball 1]

If you are interested....Chips------1st--------2nd--------3rd-------EquityExisting6600----0.5500----0.3360----0.1140----$46.443700----0.3083----0.4277----0.2639----$35.611700----0.1417----0.2363----0.6220----$17.95Call + win8300----0.6917----0.3083----0.0000----$53.833700----0.3083----0.6917----0.0000----$46.17Call + lose4900----0.4083----0.3435----0.2482----$38.243700----0.3083----0.3347----0.3570----$31.893400----0.2833----0.3218----0.3948----$29.87These calculations assume equal ability. This guy is pushing far too many hands, and is more likely get all his money in behind fairly soon if you fold the Q8.

[Actuary 3]

results: I raced and won. 66, 8 on river.figured I had gotten impatient, thanks.

[Teavis 0]

If you are interested....Chips------1st--------2nd--------3rd-------EquityExisting6600----0.5500----0.3360----0.1140----$46.443700----0.3083----0.4277----0.2639----$35.611700----0.1417----0.2363----0.6220----$17.95Call + win8300----0.6917----0.3083----0.0000----$53.833700----0.3083----0.6917----0.0000----$46.17Call + lose4900----0.4083----0.3435----0.2482----$38.243700----0.3083----0.3347----0.3570----$31.893400----0.2833----0.3218----0.3948----$29.87These calculations assume equal ability. This guy is pushing far too many hands, and is more likely get all his money in behind fairly soon if you fold the Q8.

What program if any did you use to make these calculations?

[copernicus 0]

What program if any did you use to make these calculations?

three handed it could be a spreadsheet, 4 handed+ that gets to be a bit of a pain. sitngo power tools will give those numbers before and after weighting by calling/pushing ranges and probabilities of winning/losing, which is the easiest way for 4+ hands that i know of.

[Actuary 3]

three handed it could be a spreadsheet, 4 handed+ that gets to be a bit of a pain. sitngo power tools will give those numbers before and after weighting by calling/pushing ranges and probabilities of winning/losing, which is the easiest way for 4+ hands that i know of.

math nerds.I play by feel.