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Bodog .50/1 NLHE (6-handed)Cobalt $104CO $86Cobalt is SB w/ 3 :) 3 :club:. Don't have much of a read on CO.Pre-flop:2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, Cobalt calls, BB checksFlop ($3): K :) 8 :D 2 :) (3 players)Cobalt checks, BB checks, CO checksTurn ($3): 2 :D (3 players)Cobalt checks, BB checks, CO checksRiver ($3): 3 :D (3 players)Cobalt bets $1.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $6.25, Cobalt ?

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With no read on CO I think this is probably an easy call. I am wondering if a good sized raise is out of the question here. If I am completely off base here someone please correct me.

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With no read on CO I think this is probably an easy call. I am wondering if a good sized raise is out of the question here. If I am completely off base here someone please correct me.
you don't think there is value in putting in a raise?I think you need to make it 15
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i could see pushing this river if he has a 2 he is calling
He open limped from the CO. You think he has a 2? Screams of 88 or 22, however, I still want to raise here. His range is probably a lot bigger than that, but I'm not too sure what is calling here that we beat. Wouldn't a King have bet a long time ago, and I highly doubt an 8 makes that play, and calls a reraise.The only other hand that makes sense is K8s.I could also see KK here if he thinks he's tricky (read stupid).
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He open limped from the CO. You think he has a 2? Screams of 88 or 22, however, I still want to raise here. His range is probably a lot bigger than that, but I'm not too sure what is calling here that we beat. Wouldn't a King have bet a long time ago, and I highly doubt an 8 makes that play, and calls a reraise.The only other hand that makes sense is K8s.I could also see KK here if he thinks he's tricky (read stupid).
I thought the same thing - but this is .5/1 NL, so he could've limped with A2s or any deuce suited. If he's just bluffing on this river and we raise, he folds - and the only hands I can imagine him calling with or re-raising with we are losing to. But again it's .5/1 NL. I mean, I wouldn't be totally shocked to see him turn over A-K.
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There are only 3 hands you could be afraid of KK, 88 or 22. I think in the.50/1 game KK is raising even on the button because it will look like a steal attempt and he might get called plus I would rather win small than lose big by letting someone catch on me. 88 is also raising because his hand is vulnerable, and 22 would limp.A2s K2s and K8 could also be in the pot. AK raises preflop. He could also have an unpaired Ace figuring he has two pair with the top kicker.So with all that I would reraise, I might even go the distance in this hand.

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Cobalt,There is a very high probability that this opponent really sucks since he open-limped in the CO and this is 0.5/1. It really depends on how bad he is, but if he'd open limp in the CO with a 2 in his hand, he most likely will stack off with it. Since there is a very good probability that he will shove 2x on top of a reraise, I don't think you can reraise and fold to another reraise. Whether that means we should just call or reraise I'm not too sure about. Against an unknown, there is certainly a case for just calling since you don't want to unload chips against someone when you don't really know they're hand range, but you'd really hate to just call and see A2.I'm going to think about this some more.

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I know we're not entirely settled on what to do, but let's step ahead in the action...River ($3): 3 :club: (3 players)Cobalt bets $1.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $6.25, Cobalt re-raises to $16, CO goes all-in for $78, Cobalt ?($68 call on $101 pot)

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Why such a big overbet? If he has the nuts, he certainly would want you to call and I am not sure you could call this bet unless he is beat. Maybe he should raise to $20 on top something you can call.I think he is beat, His hand is looking like AK or K8 to me.

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Why such a big overbet? If he has the nuts, he certainly would want you to call and I am not sure you could call this bet unless he is beat.
I have seen this thousands upon thousands of times and its the reason I LOOOOOOOVVVVEEEE overbetting.
I think he is beat, His hand is looking like AK or K8 to me.
It really seems like you are trying very hard to justify calling. I think AK will get the picture after getting re-reraised, but how the hell are you putting him on AK when he limps pre-flop and checks the turn and river? He's an unknown, you shouldn't really have any quantifiable idea of what he has, and that's why this hand is pretty difficult to analyze.Cobalt,I know I said earlier that if we raise and he shoves, we should be committed. Even though it looks scary, I think that still applies because if he would play 2x this way then he would definitely play it for stacks. I really really really hate the fact that this dude is unknown because it really stagnates the level of analysis you can put into this hand.This hand post is almost asking the question, "How low of a nut hand must you have to stack off against a complete unknown?" And yea, that question is very difficult to answer. I think looking back, we should probably just be calling the initial river raise since we are often going to have to make a huge decision when he pushes with incomplete information. This could literally be the worst call you could ever make or the absolutely correct one, but I hate not knowing so much that I'd prefer eliminating the big decisions for significant money without a read.
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at bodog .5-1 6 max, this guy could be limping with anything. Also, a2 is definately what i think this guy has, it could be a slowplayed set, but i don't think it is. I am pushing this at this limit everyday. Definately push after the reraise.

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at bodog .5-1 6 max, this guy could be limping with anything.
Yes, that's pretty well documented, but if we only had to judge this hand for it's pre-flop worth it would be much simpler. What hands limp pre-flop, check flop, check turn, and raise/shove river?
Also, a2 is definately what i think this guy has, it could be a slowplayed set, but i don't think it is.
Please use reasoning. This bit is pretty useless.
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tough spot.since we don't know anything about the villain, i think the best approach is to think of him as being rational and reasonable. given that profile, here are the likely factors:1) it is much more likely for the villain to bet the turn with a 2x that isn't a full house since a reasonable villain should consider protecting against the turned flush draw. that doesn't mean he always does bet, just that it decreases the likelihood of this being a non-house 2x because he didn't bet.2) a somewhat reasonable villain could limp from CO with A2/K2 suited, but anything else starts to get much less likely. 3) assuming only A2/K2 suited, 3 hand combos you beat and 4 hand combos that beat you. based purely on these hand combos, you need 43% equity. the pot is offering you 1.5-1, which is 40% equity. thus, based purely on likeliest hand combos, this is a fold.your equity obviously jumps if villain plays A2/K2o or other combos of 2x, but the lessened likelihood of that plus all the factors above in addition to the fact that he's playing for stacks on the river really bias the probabilities in favor of the villain holding at least a boat here - and you're only beating one of them. so maybe this is weak-tight of me, but i think i fold. although i will admit in the heat of the game, i might not be able to.

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I really really really hate the fact that this dude is unknown because it really stagnates the level of analysis you can put into this hand.
Oh, I completely agree. That's why I hesitated to post the hand. That said, I do have a later hand from the same opponent (with info that I didn't have at the time), so I'm curious how it will affect the reasoning on this one.Bodog .50/1 NLHE (6-handed)UTG $129Villain $134Pre-flop:UTG calls, Villain calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB checksFlop ($4): 9 :D 8 :D 6 :) (4 players)SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $5, Villain calls, 2 foldsTurn ($14): 7 :club: (2 players)UTG bets $15, Villain callsRiver ($44): 4 :) (2 players)UTG bets $20, Villain goes all-in for $113, UTG callsFinal Pot: $257UTG shows T :club: 9 :) for a straight.Villain shows A :P 9 :D for TPTK.
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Oh, I completely agree. That's why I hesitated to post the hand. That said, I do have a later hand from the same opponent (with info that I didn't have at the time), so I'm curious how it will affect the reasoning on this one.Bodog .50/1 NLHE (6-handed)UTG $129Villain $134Pre-flop:UTG calls, Villain calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB checksFlop ($4): 9 :D 8 :D 6 :) (4 players)SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $5, Villain calls, 2 foldsTurn ($14): 7 :club: (2 players)UTG bets $15, Villain callsRiver ($44): 4 :) (2 players)UTG bets $20, Villain goes all-in for $113, UTG callsFinal Pot: $257UTG shows T :club: 9 :) for a straight.Villain shows A :P 9 :D for TPTK.
now you have to call.
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He open limped from the CO. You think he has a 2? Screams of 88 or 22, however, I still want to raise here. His range is probably a lot bigger than that, but I'm not too sure what is calling here that we beat. Wouldn't a King have bet a long time ago, and I highly doubt an 8 makes that play, and calls a reraise.The only other hand that makes sense is K8s.I could also see KK here if he thinks he's tricky (read stupid).
Im biased on this b/c i play bodog all the time at these limits but open limping at 6max isvery common and honestly they coudl have anything...I would never narrow this down to him having kings or 8's. I would assume this guy is dumber than smarter and Im not worried about him havin an over boat on me
now you have to raise or push.
fyp
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I think Cobalt folded :club:
if he did then i can see why he has been in a downswing (no offense cobalt), but this is at the very minimum a call and almost always a raisebtw cobalt..u should be getting rakeback from me pretty soon...he messed up my account but it should show up for u soon
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if he did then i can see why he has been in a downswing (no offense cobalt), but this is at the very minimum a call and almost always a raise
I don't think folding is all that bad when you don't have a read, especially in the heat of battle. Cobalt doesn't just think "4th nut, Cobalt push." He's going to try to put his opponent's on hands, and it can get really confusing and difficult against unknowns.
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