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The game is $5/$10 no-limit with $1000 max buy-in. You have $2200 in front of you after taking down a few tourists. You are seated in first position preflop with QsQd and decide to raise for $35 before the flop. Two very bad and loose players whit approx $1000 each flat call your raise. The guy in the big blind who is a very tight and aggressive player thinks for about 60 seconds before he declares all-in. He puts $950 into the middle making the pot $1055.Whats your play? Fold or Call .

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Would BB push AA/KK here?If he has a similar read on the bad/loose players maybe he would; hoping the come along with there AT type hands. But then maybe he pushes TT/JJ as well and is expecting you to have a hand to lay down here.But if we assume at least one loose player comes along, then we just need to be 30% or so to call here.I'd think it's AK/ and maybe QQ/JJ enough from BB to make this call.Now, if these bad/loose players are seeing a lot of flops for standard raises; but otherwise folding to big preflop raises, then I fold here.This idea to call is based on an expectation that on Ave we get a say 80% of a call here from another player.I don't play NL cash much though.Im trying to learn

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depends on if u want to risk ur profits, if u think he has AA/KK fold, even if has AK. its a coinflip, do you want to risk 1000, on a MAYBE coinflip, smells more like KK

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Easy fold unless you want to gamble. I would assume that my opponent is simply buying this pot in order to avoid having to play the hand on the flop. You now know that this player is more than likely a weak player on the flop, so rather than play his pre-flop game, bankrupt him with strong post-flop play.

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The guy in the big blind who is a very tight and aggressive player thinks for about 60 seconds before he declares all-in. He puts $950 into the middle making the pot $1055.Whats your play? Fold or Call .
Too bad you can't see what the tourists do first. You might get a pot odds opportunity.But fold. In a hurry.
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Easy fold...you have this player pinned as a tight player. You haven't been at the table for a great amount of time and you seem to have a decent read on him. I suggest waiting for a chance to outplay him on the flop and future streets as he seems to be a touch fearful/apprehensive about his post-flop play.The other obvious consideration is the two players yet to act behind. You never know what the tourists will do sometimes, so you might as well cut your losses at $35. There is even a chance that one of the two behind you will call, enabling you to see the all-in raisers hand. This will help you to pinpoint his range of hands he's willing to push with.Clear fold in my book....if he shows you JJ, oh well. More likely it's AK or KK and your in serious trouble or in a coinflip with a player you can probably outplay after the flop. Hope this helps.

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who calls if we scale it down to a $100 buy in ?Do we not think the "tight" players could be pushing AK / JJ to pick up the $105. We are not representing a big hands with a raise to $35, right?I certainly want to know if the tourists are known for being loose enough to call here with Ax or TT-. AA/KK all in from a tight player does not make sense to me. He wants no callers.I don't have a strong opinion, figure I'll argue the opposite

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That was a classic LJ misread.I don't see how we can call this from a tight player.
Do tight players push AA/KK ?Doesn't this smell like TT-QQ / AK enough to call, especially when a tourist labeled as loose and horrible may call with worse hands ?
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Do tight players push AA/KK ?Doesn't this smell like TT-QQ / AK enough to call, especially when a tourist labeled as loose and horrible may call with worse hands ?
Against a tight/aggressive player I'm guessing the only hand that this could be that we beat is JJ or same hand (so rare it can be discounted).This is akin to having the Q high flush on the river, the pot is $5, and our opponent pushes $150. You can fold this a lot before it's a losing play.If villain would do this with anything that doesn't beat us, I think there's more value in getting your money in in a better spot. It's a crappy situation if you have to call here versus AK. Yeah, you are a 58% favorite, but I don't want to be a 58% favorite in a cash game (unless I have to), if it's this big of a gamble ($965 more bucks with only $35 invested) I want to have my opponent dominated and/or drawing dead.Bottom line, I don't think this is JJ or worse enough times to cold call a ridiculous overbet when the only other alternate hand that you beat is AK.
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Yeah, you are a 58% favorite, but I don't want to be a 58% favorite in a cash game (unless I have to), if it's this big of a gamble ($965 more bucks with only $35 invested)
We also have $70 from tourist at a minimum.You lost me here.Why in the world would you not take 58%, if you saw his cards?obviously, to me, the questions is how often I am 58% or better vs crushed and how often a tourist calls. 20% would be hugeRe-read OP, yeah, he's tight and Agg.I think it's a lower PP enough.
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Obviously, if I saw his cards, I'd call.What I'm saying is that he's putting us in a position where we are dominating him 25% of the time, dominated 45% of the time and against AK for the balance (30%).Let me put it this way, how strong of a hand would you fold with the 3rd nuts to an overbet of roughly 9 x the pot? I'd probably fold everything on up to the 2nd nuts (not inclusive).Don't get me wrong, you have to call if you know it's AK, but at the same time, that's not the type of situation you are looking for in a cash game. You are looking for dead money, or a set vs a flush draw, or a domination pre-flop. Gambling 100BB for a chance to maybe have a coin-flip, is not profitable in my eyes.

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Yeah, you are a 58% favorite, but I don't want to be a 58% favorite in a cash game
ok.this looked to me like even if you saw AK you don't think it's worth it.Just becasue there are better edges, no edge should be left on the table, espcially one almost 3:2. Of course we don't know his hand; however, I thought this statement was indicating even if you knew AK you dont' want to call. ok moving on :club:((((((((((((((((((((((I did some math:First taking all combinations of AA-TT and AK.Then assiging likelihoods to them, that add to 1.So, the more likley he is to make that play with that hand, the higher the % we assign. ( and combo)AA: 25% (6)KK: 25% (6)QQ: 20% (1)JJ: 5% (6)TT: 5% (6)AK: 20% (16)= 100%Now mutiplay thru and assume 80%/20% overpair vs underpair and 58% vs AK and no Tourists calling and we show -$61 . So lose $61 on Ave. But, throw a Tourist in there occasionally, and it's pretty clear +EV. 955 more in the pool and the tourist would not lower our chacne to win enough to offset the Equity we have in the additional 955...A less conservative approach.Now using these likelihoodsAA: 22% (6)KK: 22% (6)QQ: 18% (1)JJ: 5% (6)TT: 5% (6)AK: 28% (16)= 100%And we are +$6 With no Tourist to pad it.Certainly those aren't crazt likelhoods by any means.***********************************************8I stick with call.
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We disagree fundamentally though Actuary. I can't put TT in that group. Also, I think you're assigning way too much likliehood of same hand (QQ). I think it should be 5% for same hand, and the balance of the likliehood should split pretty evenly amongst the range (JJ,KK,AA,AK).

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We disagree fundamentally though Actuary. I can't put TT in that group. Also, I think you're assigning way too much likliehood of same hand (QQ). I think it should be 5% for same hand, and the balance of the likliehood should split pretty evenly amongst the range (JJ,KK,AA,AK).
The 20% for QQ is then Multiplied by 1 / 41 (41 being the total number of hands we let him have)See? I do combos separately.So, it works out correctly.The liklihoods is just a way to assign weights to actions given he has that hand, then we all weight it by combos.if you exclude TT, then give JJ 10% instead of each 5.As expected, AK, with 16 combos and a solid candidate to push all in here, really helps our equity.And recall, that even if you massge the numvers more towards folding, when you consider a tourist calls occasionally, we're looking good.******************Assume:AA 0.243KK 0.27QQ 0.1944JJ 0.05AK 0.2426And we're losing $69 if no tourists comes in.I think we get it back on ave with the loose/bad tourists calling sometimes, in the end, it's closer than many think, imo
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Meh, the cardinal rule of live cash games imo:If you lose control of the hand you are beat 90% of the time.I certainly agree that it is pretty close, but I don't need to exploit very small edges against tourists. That's the point I'm trying to make. If the play is bad and you are in a questionable situation, fold. There will be better opportunities against bad players.Essentially, a player bad enough to pull this move with a hand that doesn't beat yours is a player you should be able to extract from later.

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I think this is a pretty easy fold. A tight/aggro player would have no problem flat calling with 1010 or JJ and playing it for set value since it would be just stupid to shove with those hands. Keep in mind that the read on the guy is that he is VERY tight.

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i agreeand I never play liveI just like math. :club:
Mathlete =P.You've pwned me with your math skillz on many occasions.Live is a different animal all together. It's a lot more obvious when people have large hands. You can make much bigger/better laydowns. Psychology is very interesting.
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