mikeysong 0 Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 fun hand from my night at the casino:hole cards 4h,6h3 limpers, I limp, late position raises to 20, everyone calls including one of the blinds.Flop:Kh 5h 3severyone checks, I check, lp bets 40, blind raises to $140 total. I'm holding $190push or fold? It's obvious guy in the blind has a set, and the guy to my left clearly looks like he's going to fold. Link to post Share on other sites
trystero 0 Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 there's a lot of money in that pot from the preflop action, and your equity's 40% against the worst case scenario, a set of 5s, so yes, I push. Link to post Share on other sites
burbs42 0 Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 15 outs. Youre a favorite against any hand besides a set. Even against two pair youre a small favorite. Pushing also gives you fold equity, creating potential dead money from LP (blind is almost certainly calling) Link to post Share on other sites
David_Nicoson 1 Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 fun hand from my night at the casino:hole cards 4h,6h3 limpers, I limp, late position raises to 20, everyone calls including one of the blinds.Flop:Kh 5h 3severyone checks, I check, lp bets 40, blind raises to $140 total. I'm holding $190push or fold? It's obvious guy in the blind has a set, and the guy to my left clearly looks like he's going to fold.Working from your reads, we assume the set stacks off and the PFR folds:20 x 6 = 120 preflop 40 LP bet 190 amount raiser can bet --------- 350 = total pot350 / 190 = 1.8:1 (or about 35% pot equity to break even)You have 15 outs to a straight or flush (50%), but subject to the set making a full house. That makes your equity about 40% or 1.5:1, as has already been pointed out by trystero.Since 1.5 < 1.8, you make money on the call. Stated another way, you're trading $190 for 40% equity in a $540 pot ($216). So your call makes you $26 and a lot of variance.We especially don't want the PFR on bigger hearts:Board: Kh 5h 3s Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 17.2757 % 17.28% 00.00% { 6h4h }Hand 2: 20.4873 % 20.49% 00.00% { AhQh }Hand 3: 62.2370 % 62.24% 00.00% { 55 } The main pot is $160 + $190 x 3 = $730 if you're covered both places. Your equity is only 17% of $730 or $126. So you'd in this case trade $190 for $126 equity, which makes a $63 loss. You're ahead if this happens less than about 30% of the time, which seems like a safe assumption. Make the call. Link to post Share on other sites
mikeysong 0 Posted August 7, 2006 Author Share Posted August 7, 2006 tyfor once I appreciate a post based on just math Link to post Share on other sites
subsin 0 Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 holy crap, where'd u get that converter Link to post Share on other sites
burbs42 0 Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 lol twodimes.net, son -- put it in your fav's Link to post Share on other sites
MasterLJ 0 Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 You are also behind 2 pair btw.As bad as it sounds, call. If you get 3 way action here you want your opponents to have sets/pairs/2-pair. It actually makes their outs to the boat worse, and makes your hand stronger. You want to gamble on getting LP in the pot. Pushing may scare him, but an extra $100 in a multiway pot of $380 may be callable for LP. Obviously chuck in your last $50 on any turn. Link to post Share on other sites
Lip Is Fat 0 Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 you do have alot of outs and hoping someone has AK or QQ/JJ tryin to make the play here i for sure make that call odds are all there. Link to post Share on other sites
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