Tpmk Vs Preflop Raiser

[CoranMoran 0]

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 8. 1 fold, MP raises, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls.Flop: (6 SB) Q, A, 2(3 players)SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets, SB calls, Hero calls.Turn: (4.50 BB) 3(3 players)SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets, SB folds, Hero calls.River: (6.50 BB) 7(2 players)Hero bets ....Final Pot: 8.50 BB==============Does this line make sense against certain opponents?I find myself in these positions often.Out of position with a pretty decent hand after the flop.But one that could easily be dominated.I feel that these situations should be played differently based on the read of the given opponent.In this particular example, Villain:-) Raises preflop often-) Usualy continuation bets flop and turn-) Checks down river unless he has a strong handHow do you normally play this hand against various reads?Check-call all the way?Raise at some point?Please advise.--CM

[screech 0]

It's ok if you can fold to a raise I guess. The fact hat he bet into 2 opponents on the turn is a bit iffy, but what can ya do. Oh, I know, fold pf .

[hotbacon 0]

I fold PF.I would c/r th eflop, especially with the other guy hangin out

[CoranMoran 0]

I fold PF.

Do most people really fold A8 from the big blind here against a CO raise?People are open raising here with QJ all day.There is a strong chance my hand is best in these situations.Though folding would certainly rid myself of the difficult decisions to follow.--cm

[screech 0]

Do most people really fold A8 from the big blind here against a CO raise?People are open raising here with QJ all day.There is a strong chance my hand is best in these situations.Though folding would certainly rid myself of the difficult decisions to follow.--cm

So are you constantly 3-betting OTB? People also open with A9+ and 88+ too. Not to mention the other player who called may have you in trouble. A8o just doesn't play that well postflop, and your relative position kinda sucks.It's close though, and I would probably call with A9o agianst most players, so you can basically ignore everything I wrote.

[MrNiceGuy 0]

I did some scratchwork on this. (I did this quickly, so it may not be perfect.) Let's say CO's range is AA-88, AK-A9, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT. In that case, when we have A8, villain will have us dominated 96 times, and he'll have K, Q, or J-high 96 times.Heads-up, we'd be getting 3.25-1 to call (minus whatever the rake is).Against the dominating range, we'll flop an A about 14% of the time and an 8 about 17% of the time. An A will give us the best hand about 40% of the time. An 8 will give us the best hand about 60% of the time. Together, our odds of outflopping the CO in this case is about 16%, or roughly 5-1.Against the KQJ range, we'll be leading after the flop as long as villain misses (or if villain hits once but we catch an A). So roughly 70% of the time.So we're going to flop the best hand in total a bit more than 40% of the time, but we'd still have to play the hand postF from OOP with little way of knowing if we're ahead or not, whereas villain will likely have a good idea where he stands. Suppose we c/c most flops that don't have an K,Q,or J, and then we c/c down the turn and river if we've improved (or we bet the river if villain checks behind the turn), and we c/f the turn otherwise. Then we're going to win about 1.5 BB's when we win, lose about 2.5 BB's when we lose, and sometimes fold the best hand.We're going to have the best hand after the flop something like 40% of the time; sometimes we'll outdraw our opponent, sometimes he'll outdraw us, and sometimes we'll get outplayed. It will likely be very difficult for us to outplay our opponent. So I expect to win the hand somewhere around 35% of the time.So, figuring in the 1.5 BB's already in the pot preflop, and the 0.5 it costs us to call, we're going to lose about 3 BB's on the hand more often than we win about 3 BB's on the hand. So heads-up, I think A8o is a fairly easy fold against a fairly tight raiser. (against a very loose raiser, it would be a different story, and we should probably either be calling or 3-betting).-------------------------------------------With the small blind in, we get a bigger overlay from the pot, but we have to beat a third player. The effect should be that when we win, we win a bit more, but we will win less often. Initially we were winning roughly 35% of the time. So maybe now we'll win 25-30% of the time. I don't think that we'll win enough extra to offset this, so I think we still have a fold preflop. It might be close if the SB is a really bad player postflop who would, for example, call down with a small pocket pair on an A-high board.

[CoranMoran 0]

MrNiceGuy' date='Thursday, July 27th, 2006, 9:22 AM'I did some scratchwork on this.

Wow.Impressive analysis.Sounds like it's pretty close if the opponents are LAG.And I have a tendency to underestimate my oppoents by putting almost everyone in this category. ;)Thanks for the work.--CM