Ahmadinejad 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 The tournament I have played in every week the past several weeks, I have finished 13, 26, 13, 11 out of an average of 125. Final table (10) is guaranteed $700+, bubble is $100 and everything else $0. The tournament is strange in that at the final table, all players are given an equal amount of REAL chips to play with and are able to leave with their money if they are the short stack, and everyone does except 2 or 3 diehards who don't mind playing a $700 SnG.On the bubble finish, there were THREE players who were all in every time whenever either blind hit them. All three survived all in after all in and I was stunned that my stack became threatened by the blinds... it never should have. Not even close. But here I was in trouble after these 3 players survived all in after all in, and of COURSE, I went out 11th! (Remember, in this tournament there is absolutely no benefit to going to the final table with a big chipstack because everyone starts over. Making the final table is the only objective in this tournament.)On one of my two 13th finishes, I had enough of a stack that I should have been able to ride it out to the final table, but I got an AKs and decided I could not throw that away and raised big UTG. Next player goes ALL IN with AQo and he beats me with his friggin Q. I still have chips but of course, do not survive to the final table.All along the way here, and in other tournaments, I am consistently getting hit with bad beats FAR FAR FAR beyond the expected mathematical frequency of them occuring and likewise I am not sucking out on others at anywhere near the % that I should be.The question is, are there certain players who will be mathematically "unlucky" and never have the long-term odds and percentages play out to what should occur over time? Are there some people who are doomed to hit many of their draws at a far lower % than math and statistics would suggest over the true "long term"? Likewise are there players who are going to get sucked out on 25% of the time when statistically they should only be sucked out on 10% of the time? How long does one have to play before finally realizing the "long run" and finally have the math working neither for nor against them?I know everyone thinks they get sucked out on a lot more than they should, and that they don't suck out on other people as often as they should statistically. It honestly does seem to be the case where I am concerned though. I've had plenty of other players comment about how bad the cards always seem to run for me... some have said they've never seen it happen as bad to any other regular at our casino.This is not me feeling sorry for myself; I will continue playing, but I want to know if, given the number of poker players there are in the world, if some are simply destined to have far poorer "luck" (defined as not having neutral math one way or the other) which continues on and on? Or after a certain number of hands / years / hours / etc. is this simply not possible? Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 There is no luck over the long term.Keep in mind the long term is very long. Link to post Share on other sites
FourFlusher 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 I don't think luck is a human trait. We are all lucky sometimes. I do think you can help yourself, though. Entering a pot knowing you're going to be raised, without even having a pair, AK, while knowing you can finish in the money by not playing is not helping yourself, it's gambling...asking to be unlucky.If you know you could have slid into the final table by doing nothing, it sounds to me like you threw it away.You had already won, and elected to put yourself in a position to lose, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Link to post Share on other sites
AcesUp46 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 This is a funny post on so many levels.1. Very weird tourney structure where at final table, chips become real money and you can leave.2. The idea that some ppl are foreordained to suffer more bad beats3. The President of Iran is posting on FCP4. Poster clearly put a lot of thought into his post snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.I think the situation OP described is exactly the same as a satellite situation. Basically, just coast into the money if you have a decent stack. Let others duke it out. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 I think the situation OP described is exactly the same as a satellite situation. Basically, just coast into the money if you have a decent stack. Let others duke it out.Well, yeah. If every one gets the same starting stack at the FT, then why the **** would you even play a hand on the bubble? It doesn't matter if you have 1 tournament chip left when you get to the final table, either way, you win the same, since you can leave immediately. Link to post Share on other sites
stan394 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 The question is, why you? why do you think over the 'long term', you are more unlucky than others? what makes YOU different? Link to post Share on other sites
AcesUp46 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 There is no luck over the long term.Keep in mind the long term is very long.I read an article by Mike Caro and agree with with his statement that actually, some ppl are just luckier than others. Basically, one lifetime is just too short a time period for luck to even out. Hence, some ppl will be luckier than average and others "unluckier" than average. But once again, there is nothing inherent in a person that makes him lucky. You're just lucky to be lucky....Here's the link to the article. Linky Link to post Share on other sites
FourFlusher 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 People do dumb ****, then blame luck. They get up a grand in the dice pit, don't leave, lose it all, and tell every body how unlucky they got. They denied their luck...they had it and gave it back.They credit good things to luck when it was good decision making, not necessarily luck....When you believe in thingsthat you don't understand...Then you suffer, Superstition ain't the way. Link to post Share on other sites
jaaaaakke 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 Aces up, your KL pic makes me want to throw up Link to post Share on other sites
AcesUp46 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 Aces up, your KL pic makes me want to throw upEven the one in my signature? She looks way hotter in that signature than in my avatar. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 some posters should start out in general.get all this stuff outa their systems Link to post Share on other sites
Ahmadinejad 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Author Share Posted July 21, 2006 I read an article by Mike Caro and agree with with his statement that actually, some ppl are just luckier than others. Basically, one lifetime is just too short a time period for luck to even out. Hence, some ppl will be luckier than average and others "unluckier" than average.THANK YOU! This was exactly what I was looking for, to know whether or not a "lifetime" of playing poker was long enough to completely level the playing field or, if after even a lifetime of poker, if some were "unlucky" or "lucky" enough to show statistically significant deviation above or below what could be considered "neutral" statistics...The thing about a poker "lifetime" however is that obviously, everything can turn on a dime and do a complete reversal. As far as I believe I am deviating from neutral statistics to the "unlucky" side, tomorrow I could have a run lasting several months that would be equally "lucky". Link to post Share on other sites
Rated-R 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 The tournament I have played in every week the past several weeks, I have finished 13, 26, 13, 11 out of an average of 125. Final table (10) is guaranteed $700+, bubble is $100 and everything else $0. The tournament is strange in that at the final table, all players are given an equal amount of REAL chips to play with and are able to leave with their money if they are the short stack, and everyone does except 2 or 3 diehards who don't mind playing a $700 SnG.On the bubble finish, there were THREE players who were all in every time whenever either blind hit them. All three survived all in after all in and I was stunned that my stack became threatened by the blinds... it never should have. Not even close. But here I was in trouble after these 3 players survived all in after all in, and of COURSE, I went out 11th! (Remember, in this tournament there is absolutely no benefit to going to the final table with a big chipstack because everyone starts over. Making the final table is the only objective in this tournament.)On one of my two 13th finishes, I had enough of a stack that I should have been able to ride it out to the final table, but I got an AKs and decided I could not throw that away and raised big UTG. Next player goes ALL IN with AQo and he beats me with his friggin Q. I still have chips but of course, do not survive to the final table.All along the way here, and in other tournaments, I am consistently getting hit with bad beats FAR FAR FAR beyond the expected mathematical frequency of them occuring and likewise I am not sucking out on others at anywhere near the % that I should be.The question is, are there certain players who will be mathematically "unlucky" and never have the long-term odds and percentages play out to what should occur over time? Are there some people who are doomed to hit many of their draws at a far lower % than math and statistics would suggest over the true "long term"? Likewise are there players who are going to get sucked out on 25% of the time when statistically they should only be sucked out on 10% of the time? How long does one have to play before finally realizing the "long run" and finally have the math working neither for nor against them?I know everyone thinks they get sucked out on a lot more than they should, and that they don't suck out on other people as often as they should statistically. It honestly does seem to be the case where I am concerned though. I've had plenty of other players comment about how bad the cards always seem to run for me... some have said they've never seen it happen as bad to any other regular at our casino.This is not me feeling sorry for myself; I will continue playing, but I want to know if, given the number of poker players there are in the world, if some are simply destined to have far poorer "luck" (defined as not having neutral math one way or the other) which continues on and on? Or after a certain number of hands / years / hours / etc. is this simply not possible?Just curious why you would play this hand if you could have coasted to the final table and start all over with equal chips???Also, I 100% agree with you that some people are luckier than others! I am definitely on the unlucky side myself...all I do is continue to try and make the right play and hope things turn around or 'even out'. However, I have noticed that I have been on the losing side of many more 'coin flips' than not...and very rarely catch a break! You are definitely not alone in believing some people have 'poorer luck' than others. Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 I read an article by Mike Caro and agree with with his statement that actually, some ppl are just luckier than others. Basically, one lifetime is just too short a time period for luck to even out. Hence, some ppl will be luckier than average and others "unluckier" than average. But once again, there is nothing inherent in a person that makes him lucky. You're just lucky to be lucky....Here's the link to the article. Linky Actually, my theory is that SOME people are luckier than others. Across all humanity, there's simple mathematics. Pick out certain individuals, some are luckier than others. Variance from person to person.Even the one in my signature? She looks way hotter in that signature than in my avatar.She doesn't look hot. She looks like the refrigerator between her legs just got unplugged ... and she don't like it one bit. Link to post Share on other sites
chipinchair 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 Just curious why you would play this hand if you could have coasted to the final table and start all over with equal chips???Also, I 100% agree with you that some people are luckier than others! I am definitely on the unlucky side myself...all I do is continue to try and make the right play and hope things turn around or 'even out'. However, I have noticed that I have been on the losing side of many more 'coin flips' than not...and very rarely catch a break! You are definitely not alone in believing some people have 'poorer luck' than others.There is no such thing as Poker Luck in the long term, just make sure your bankroll can sustain a few hits. Last night I got beat in 3 pots with set over set in 224 hands. I was VERY lucky to hit 3 sets in that time, and VERY unlucky to lose to bigger sets each time. Such is life, I ended up logging 600 more hands and making a few bucks for the night. Granted 1K hands is NOT long term, but my 21K hands for this month so far have treated me very well. Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 People do dumb ****, then blame luck. They get up a grand in the dice pit, don't leave, lose it all, and tell every body how unlucky they got. They denied their luck...they had it and gave it back.Who plays craps? Link to post Share on other sites
blacktie31 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 no such thing as luck Link to post Share on other sites
navybuttons 15 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 i hate the big raise with AK UTG.by your own words the goal is to make the final table. this means that (13 left/ 10 final table) if you are 2nd in chips and 1st in chips goes all in ahead of you that you are folding aces. Link to post Share on other sites
stevedar 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 Of course some people are luckier than others...take the lottery for instanceOn the other hand alot of people do dumb things to put themselves in a position to be lucky...take the lottery for instance Link to post Share on other sites
mtdesmoines 3 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 i hate the big raise with AK UTG.by your own words the goal is to make the final table. this means that (13 left/ 10 final table) if you are 2nd in chips and 1st in chips goes all in ahead of you that you are folding aces.But they're ACES. Rockets. Bullets. American Airlines. Double down time. PUT THE MONEY IN WITH THE BEST HAND. Link to post Share on other sites
navybuttons 15 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 But they're ACES. Rockets. Bullets. American Airlines. Double down time. PUT THE MONEY IN WITH THE BEST HAND.you forgot the sw. Link to post Share on other sites
AcesUp46 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 There is no such thing as Poker Luck in the long term, just make sure your bankroll can sustain a few hits. Last night I got beat in 3 pots with set over set in 224 hands. I was VERY lucky to hit 3 sets in that time, and VERY unlucky to lose to bigger sets each time. Such is life, I ended up logging 600 more hands and making a few bucks for the night. Granted 1K hands is NOT long term, but my 21K hands for this month so far have treated me very well.I would actually disagree. When you say long term, you're referring to the entire period of time within one's lifetime when one plays poker. But one lifetime is simply not long enough a time period for the luck factor to be the same for everyone. However, that long a time period is enough for the skill factor to trump the luck factor. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 whether you are/were lucky over your poker life is not known till after the fact; so it makes no sense to play accordingly.I mean, it's random. So, of course it may not "even out"; but you have no way of knowing if it will , when it will, etc.so it's irrelevant but you are not predestined to be unlucky/lucky Link to post Share on other sites
ColeSLaw 0 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 There is no luck over the long term.Keep in mind the long term is very long.“In the long run, we're all dead.” John Maynard Keynes Link to post Share on other sites
HangukMiguk 8 Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 i'm boiling in this bitch Link to post Share on other sites
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