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My new goal is to get really really good at 6max NL.I mean WTF these games are juicty. I've been CALLED DOWN by K high twice in my little 200 hand session.Here's a hand that just happened, not a K high call down but still RIDICULOUSPokerStars Game #5540220182: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2006/07/12 - 21:30:30 (ET)Table 'Erinome IV' 6-max Seat #6 is the buttonSeat 1: INThor ($74.35 in chips) Seat 2: Zadan ($275.30 in chips) Seat 3: mdom ($218.25 in chips) Seat 4: MuckinQuads ($68.15 in chips) Seat 5: TXtoVA ($80 in chips) Seat 6: Mbombach ($177.65 in chips) INThor: posts small blind $1Zadan: posts big blind $2TXtoVA: posts big blind $2*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to mdom [Jc Jh]mdom: raises $8 to $10MuckinQuads: folds TXtoVA: calls $8Mbombach: folds INThor: folds Zadan: folds *** FLOP *** [Qd Ts Ks]mdom: checks TXtoVA: bets $10mdom: calls $10*** TURN *** [Qd Ts Ks] [Ad]mdom: bets $24TXtoVA: calls $24*** RIVER *** [Qd Ts Ks Ad] [Qh]mdom: bets $174.25 and is all-inTXtoVA: calls $36 and is all-in*** SHOW DOWN ***mdom: shows [Jc Jh] (a straight, Ten to Ace)TXtoVA: mucks hand mdom collected $160 from pot*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $163 | Rake $3 Board [Qd Ts Ks Ad Qh]Seat 1: INThor (small blind) folded before FlopSeat 2: Zadan (big blind) folded before FlopSeat 3: mdom showed [Jc Jh] and won ($160) with a straight, Ten to AceSeat 4: MuckinQuads folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 5: TXtoVA mucked [Kh 7h]Seat 6: Mbombach (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)WTF? And he called instantly. For a second there I thought my river push might not have been best, but jesus if he's calling with that.......................???????????????? Maybe I'll start value betting Q high...Is this kind of play to be expected?

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Limit seriously annoys me so much sometimes. I don't think any other game is as frustrating, because when you're getting beat down, there's very little you can do to stop it other than quitting. NL at least you can just nut peddle for a bit or all the time actually, in limit you can't really do that.Basically the reason why Limit is so heavy on variance is because you need to get cards to win in Limit for a particular session, not so much in NL as you can still take down pots without making hands. You also only need to hit 1 homerun ball in NL to potentially be up a lot for a particular session, again that doesn't happen in Limit.

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Limit seriously annoys me so much sometimes. I don't think any other game is as frustrating, because when you're getting beat down, there's very little you can do to stop it other than quitting. NL at least you can just nut peddle for a bit or all the time actually, in limit you can't really do that.Basically the reason why Limit is so heavy on variance is because you need to get cards to win in Limit for a particular session, not so much in NL as you can still take down pots without making hands. You also only need to hit 1 homerun ball in NL to potentially be up a lot for a particular session, again that doesn't happen in Limit.
I've had the exact same feelings re: limit lately. The last couple days I played amazing on Absolute, and ended up about even. Then played very well at Pokerroom also (without PT/PAHUD) and made a tiny profit.Then today I sit down at 3/6, and immediately start making mistakes. Get involved in 3 big multi-way pots with marginal hands. Misread my hand twice. Result is +15 bets. Then pick up a few huge hands, miss bets in each, and end up leaving +35 bets.Frustrating playing well for 5K hands, then making three times as much over 75 donkly-played hands.also, since all the mathy nerds probably read this, what is the probability of getting KK 140 (or more) times in 25571 hands? Seems like a lot more than should be expected.
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also, since all the mathy nerds probably read this, what is the probability of getting KK 140 (or more) times in 25571 hands? Seems like a lot more than should be expected.
The expected value of being dealt KK in 25571 hands is 116. In order to find the probability of being dealth KK 140 times or more you need to solve the following: 1391 - (1/220)^j * (1-1/220)^(25571-140) * (25571!) / (140!*(25571-140!)) j=0Good luck trying to solve this. I tried using MATLAB and got a Not a Number error becuase the binomail distribution evaluates to . Also, the expression (1/220)^j * (1-1/220)^(25571-140) will become so small that MATLAB truncates it to 0. I may be a math nerd, but this good sir, is beyond my computational power to solve.The one interesting stat that I can tell you is the standard deviation for this sample of hands is about 10.8. This means you are just beyond two standard deviations from the mean, which is pretty amazing because you are one of the 4.6% of people who has been dealt KK freakishly more than normal.Holy **** am I a nerd!
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The expected value of being dealt KK in 25571 hands is 116. In order to find the probability of being dealth KK 140 times or more you need to solve the following: 1391 - (1/220)^j * (1-1/220)^(25571-140) * (25571!) / (140!*(25571-140!)) j=0Good luck trying to solve this. I tried using MATLAB and got a Not a Number error becuase the binomail distribution evaluates to . Also, the expression (1/220)^j * (1-1/220)^(25571-140) will become so small that MATLAB truncates it to 0. I may be a math nerd, but this good sir, is beyond my computational power to solve.The one interesting stat that I can tell you is the standard deviation for this sample of hands is about 10.8. This means you are just beyond two standard deviations from the mean, which is pretty amazing because you are one of the 4.6% of people who has been dealt KK freakishly more than normal.Holy **** am I a nerd!
womp womp womp womp is what i heard.thanks for trying, but that was way beyond me.I thought I remembered doing stuff in school using p-values that could solve that without too much difficulty.is 95.4% a good approximation?Oh, and another July Goal is not to misclick while typing this response again and limp 5To UTG, then lose another 4 bets flopping top pair and getting rivered!
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The one interesting stat that I can tell you is the standard deviation for this sample of hands is about 10.8.
why isn't the StdDev = Sqrt (npq) ? = 37.6thought I recalled that for Binomial.thus making Danny, not so special.
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why isn't the StdDev = Sqrt (npq) ? = 37.6thought I recalled that for Binomial.thus making Danny, not so special.
Not sure what p and q are in your formula The standard deviation for a binomial distribution is:StdDev=sqrt(np(1-p))where n=25571 (sample size) and p=1/220 (probability of getting KK).
is 95.4% a good approximation?
No. 4.6% is a better approximation. I think I have a way to approximate it better. Will post details later (if you care).
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Not sure what p and q are in your formula The standard deviation for a binomial distribution is:StdDev=sqrt(np(1-p))where n=25571 (sample size) and p=1/220 (probability of getting KK).No. 4.6% is a better approximation. I think I have a way to approximate it better. Will post details later (if you care).
q = 1-p.so I got that right.Just used 1/17 .... probability of anypair.. my bad.
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I don't even know why I play Limit for, I just keep subjecting myself to getting beat down day after day. The positive is I've gotten way better at cutting down my losses these days, the negative is I've lost 7 days in a row. Of course worst things can happen, so there's always worst things to look forward to. What a sick game this is.

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Ok, while I agree that limit can be a real b*tch at times, I think everyone knows that this is also partly to the games getting tougher. Having said that, if you want really fishy limit tables, or even NL, play at PACIFIC. You have games up there all the way up to 75/150, and sometimes the 75/150 game has 70%+ to the flop (5max)! Most of the other levels are all +50% to the flop at 6max, and full ring +40%. Also, you can get rakeback there, but pacific rakeback = the new party rakeback.

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thus making Danny, not so special.
i laughed at that, especially the careful punctuation.alright, another question.according to PT, my Total Raked for June was $1090. I get 32% rakeback, and my payment was just over $500. I would've thought that Total Raked would be a good approximation for MGR - can anyone explain why it is/isn't, or what else i'm missing that explains the differential?It has been a consistent thing for us to get paid more than expected (not that we're complaining, just would like a better estimate).Thanks
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can I get rakeback even if I don't play much?do I just get a lower rate?I figured this was the best thread for silly crap like this...but really, it's a seriosu question.my goal is to make more from rakeback in july.and remeber how to play LHE again.

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can I get rakeback even if I don't play much?do I just get a lower rate?I figured this was the best thread for silly crap like this...but really, it's a seriosu question.my goal is to make more from rakeback in july.and remeber how to play LHE again.
Sure, you can get rakeback if you don't play much. You get a rate depending on how much you generate, but usually there are only a few levels seperated by 1%. High volume get much better though, but sites dont advertise those, and I wouldnt know about them anyways. Most sites give around 30% rakeback.
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can I get rakeback even if I don't play much?do I just get a lower rate?I figured this was the best thread for silly crap like this...but really, it's a seriosu question.my goal is to make more from rakeback in july.and remeber how to play LHE again.
pretty much what aim said - amount of play doesn't matter much, and often not at all.mostly it just depends on the site. at limit, its worth about 0.5bb/100, so its generally not worth switching to a site with worse boni, but if you're dry on both fronts, it is worth switching it up.
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Ok, while I agree that limit can be a real b*tch at times, I think everyone knows that this is also partly to the games getting tougher. Having said that, if you want really fishy limit tables, or even NL, play at PACIFIC. You have games up there all the way up to 75/150, and sometimes the 75/150 game has 70%+ to the flop (5max)! Most of the other levels are all +50% to the flop at 6max, and full ring +40%. Also, you can get rakeback there, but pacific rakeback = the new party rakeback.
Alright.New party rakeback?
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July goal: CompleteParty Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Preflop: Hero is BB with 6spade.gif, Aspade.gif. 1 fold, MP raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.Flop: (4.50 SB) Theart.gif, 7spade.gif, Aheart.gif(2 players)Hero checks, MP bets, Hero raises, MP calls.Turn: (4.25 BB) Aclub.gif(2 players)Hero checks, MP bets, Hero raises, MP calls.River: (8.25 BB) Qdiamond.gif(2 players)Hero checks, MP bets, Hero raises, MP calls.Final Pot: 12.25 BBResults in white below: Hero has 6s As (three of a kind, aces). MP has Qh 9d (two pair, aces and queens). Outcome: Hero wins 12.25 BB.

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July goal: CompleteParty Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Preflop: Hero is BB with 6spade.gif, Aspade.gif. 1 fold, MP raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.Flop: (4.50 SB) Theart.gif, 7spade.gif, Aheart.gif(2 players)Hero checks, MP bets, Hero raises, MP calls.Turn: (4.25 BB) Aclub.gif(2 players)Hero checks, MP bets, Hero raises, MP calls.River: (8.25 BB) Qdiamond.gif(2 players)Hero checks, MP bets, Hero raises, MP calls.Final Pot: 12.25 BBResults in white below: Hero has 6s As (three of a kind, aces). MP has Qh 9d (two pair, aces and queens). Outcome: Hero wins 12.25 BB.
LOL!
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well im at +800 for the month... goal of +1k....been going pretty smoothly. I have been takin shots at higher limits (100nl, 200nl). Anybody see a problem? Its not my full time game but I jump up and play b/c i think i can win at the game, just underrolled at the moment

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