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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)CO ($26.90)Hero ($49.75)SB ($125.75)BB ($50)UTG ($4.55)MP ($61.35)Preflop: Hero is Button with Q :club: , Q :D . 1 fold, MP raises to $2, CO raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 2 folds, MP folds.Flop: ($12.75) 5 :D , 8 :) , 4 :D(2 players)CO bets $7.5, Hero ???After 35 hands, the stats on this player are 40/0, so this is the first hand he's raised, let alone reraised. The reraise preflop obviously scares me, which is why i flat call. But what to do now?

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)CO ($26.90)Hero ($49.75)SB ($125.75)BB ($50)UTG ($4.55)MP ($61.35)Preflop: Hero is Button with Q :club: , Q :D . 1 fold, MP raises to $2, CO raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 2 folds, MP folds.Flop: ($12.75) 5 :D , 8 :) , 4 :D(2 players)CO bets $7.5, Hero ???After 35 hands, the stats on this player are 40/0, so this is the first hand he's raised, let alone reraised. The reraise preflop obviously scares me, which is why i flat call. But what to do now?
I would have reraise preflop to see where you are in the hand... That's a pretty safe flop for QQ after villain reraised preflop. Only worries are KK and AA, and I think you would have found out if he had KK or AA preflop if you had raised.Here.. tough decision.
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Here's my thinking: you're not getting away from this hand. Villain's stack size is too short to attempt any hand definition by raising. So this hand really boils down to extracting as much value as possible when you're actually ahead here (villain holding AK or JJ), while potentially also leaving yourself an escape hatch if an overcard drops on the turn. Pushing him in on the flop actually gives AK the right odds to call (3-1), and sometimes makes JJ fold, and of course you are drawing slim when he holds AA and KK. Thus, I think what works here is calling that flop lead and then pushing the turn (or calling if he pushes) assuming an A or K doesn't drop. You get away if an overcard drops. If it doesn't, you can correctly price out AK on the turn if he checks. If he continues to fire with AK, you extract more money by letting him bluff. The JJ that check/folds the turn is the JJ that probably folds to a flop raise. So again, calling the flop and letting him bet again extracts more value. Yes, you could be up against AA/KK, but all the money is going in the middle here anyways. Although, I will say that folding QQ here against a guy that hasn't raised, much less reraised, in 40 hands isn't a huge mistake.

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Here's my thinking: you're not getting away from this hand. Villain's stack size is too short to attempt any hand definition by raising. So this hand really boils down to extracting as much value as possible when you're actually ahead here (villain holding AK or JJ), while potentially also leaving yourself an escape hatch if an overcard drops on the turn. Pushing him in on the flop actually gives AK the right odds to call (3-1), . . .
This sounds like Sklansky's reasoning and I think there's a leak in it. Here we can offer him 3:1 and he makes a "break-even" call with a 3:1 draw. If he calls a bet up to half pot, his calling cost equals his equity in the new pot. (That is, 25% of the pot after the call.)If he calls a larger bet incorrectly, he loses 75% of the amount by which our bet exceeds half pot.But if we fail to bet at least half-pot, he must make money at our expense. Sort of. We could get 3:1 on any bet up to half the pot size, even if we flip up our cards and our opponent plays perfectly. So in the same sense, we lose 75% of the amount our bet is less than half pot.Now, in some cases (and this may be one) the limited stacks can make a different play better. On its own, though, his call being correct doesn't mean we shouldn't bet.
and sometimes makes JJ fold, and of course you are drawing slim when he holds AA and KK. Thus, I think what works here is calling that flop lead and then pushing the turn (or calling if he pushes) assuming an A or K doesn't drop. You get away if an overcard drops. If it doesn't, you can correctly price out AK on the turn if he checks. If he continues to fire with AK, you extract more money by letting him bluff. The JJ that check/folds the turn is the JJ that probably folds to a flop raise. So again, calling the flop and letting him bet again extracts more value. Yes, you could be up against AA/KK, but all the money is going in the middle here anyways.
If we're ahead, I'd prefer to push. I think JJ calls, and I don't care if AK calls or folds.
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This sounds like Sklansky's reasoning and I think there's a leak in it...On its own, though, his call being correct doesn't mean we shouldn't bet.
Interesting point.I think I understand the logic here, but maybe I don't. So two things I'd like to hear your thoughts on:1) Villain has already bet slightly more than half the pot, so even if we just flat call here, he already has invested more here than his 25% equity in the new pot.2) How are you equating his flop investment to his overall 25% equity over two cards? Once the turn arrives the pot is now dead money and I can pot it and only offer him 3-1 to see the river card. Here his equity shrinks to 12-13%. In both the flop and turn cases, if he continues with AK, each time he is paying more than his equity warrants to see the next card. Doesn't he only pay break-even to his equity on the flop if we assume he sees the river for free?
If we're ahead, I'd prefer to push. I think JJ calls, and I don't care if AK calls or folds.
Well, what about these considerations:1) If JJ calls a flop push, doesn't JJ also call a turn push? One thing to consider is that an A or K will drop, but this isn't so bad, is it? It lets JJ get away from us, but it also lets us get away from AA/KK/AK.2) In the cases where JJ folds to a flop push, the chances that it folds on the turn may actually be less. The reason is that if the turn comes another low card, JJ could bet again and at that point he'd be committed to calling when we come over the top. It seems like here if JJ check/folds, he was likely going to fold to the flop push anyways.
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there is way too much analysis on this.its simple. CO has 26.00 hero has CO covered. Its also a cash gameCO reraises to 5.00 with blind @ 0.50, you hold QQ, if you want to make advanced thinking try to think of what you wil do post flop when you dont hit a set. Obviously you made the call hoping to hit a set, you didnt but u have all under cards. which makes you think your queens could be good.You should realise you'l be scared if CO bets out, so basically you have limited yourself to flopping a set, with QQ, or Hope CO doesnt lead out.What we need to do is re-raise to 10.00 the min. preflop, CO has invested 5.00 and will need to invest another 5.00 total 10. leaving him with 15.00 Not exactly pot committed in a cash game at those stakes. a re-raise by CO will make our decision easier, as we could put him on AA or KK with his stats and the current situation.Often big pairs will run into big pairs, thats what sucks about poker, but what we need to realise is we will lose money regardless, but the ability to lose the least amount possible, and finish the hand is sometimes the best plays we make.

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Fold.... that's all i got.
im actually surpised you say this. Villian is shortstack and a rock would easily play 99, TT, JJ, AK virtually identically. He has $21 left after the flop and $12 in the pot we are ahead definitely enough to push the flop gettn better than 1.5-1 on our chips with the overpair.
What we need to do is re-raise to 10.00 the min. preflop, CO has invested 5.00 and will need to invest another 5.00 total 10. leaving him with 15.00 Not exactly pot committed in a cash game at those stakes. a re-raise by CO will make our decision easier, as we could put him on AA or KK with his stats and the current situation.
I think pushing preflop is the better move and not just cause i despise the min raise I think villian will easily call with above hands as well as AA and KK but if my BR is fine I push the shorty rock preflop .
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im actually surpised you say this. Villian is shortstack and a rock would easily play 99, TT, JJ, AK virtually identically. He has $21 left after the flop and $12 in the pot we are ahead definitely enough to push the flop gettn better than 1.5-1 on our chips with the overpair.I think pushing preflop is the better move and not just cause i despise the min raise I think villian will easily call with above hands as well as AA and KK but if my BR is fine I push the shorty rock preflop .
the stats on this player are 40/0That's really the only thing I'm going on. A guy who likes to see too many flops, never raises, and then reraises. (Granted it's a small sample, but it's honestly big enough for me at this point)Edit: He's also at a 1/2 stack... It's short, but not really short.
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We have the 3rd best possible hand. If we reraise to $12 preflop and he pushes, we have to call anyway, having only $13 more to call in to a $38 pot (51 after our call), and we're ahead of anything but KK and AA. So, you have to be pretty damn sure he has AA or KK to fold this hand preflop or on the flop of undercards. Frankly, it doesn't matter even if the flop brings a K or A...he's so committed and makes the same plays preflop and postflop with 1010 and JJ and AK. Him never raising doesnt mean he was limping with 99, 1010, AK...unless he was and you've failed to tell us that.If he never raises preflop, push after his reraise. He'll fold something like 99 and maybe 1010, and you're only losing to KK or AA, and that's poke.

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Interesting point.I think I understand the logic here, but maybe I don't. So two things I'd like to hear your thoughts on:1) Villain has already bet slightly more than half the pot, so even if we just flat call here, he already has invested more here than his 25% equity in the new pot.
Any amount a villain bets with AK costs him money since he is the dog. After he bets on the flop, that money is in the pot and we can forget about that action.
2) How are you equating his flop investment to his overall 25% equity over two cards?
I was thinking about the case when a flop raise puts him all-in, so yeah he would get both cards for that cost.
Once the turn arrives the pot is now dead money and I can pot it and only offer him 3-1 to see the river card. Here his equity shrinks to 12-13%. In both the flop and turn cases, if he continues with AK, each time he is paying more than his equity warrants to see the next card.
I agree, if you can get all his money in on the turn with an unimproved AK, that's really good. I'm going to assume that our opponent has AK and do some math and hand-waving. (I'll also point out that if he really has JJ and we fold to an ace or king on the turn, that's a disaster.)============== Bunch of math block =================Let p = pot size after your call on the flopIf you go all-in on the flop for another 1/2p, your EV is p regardless of whether he calls or folds. If you wait for the turn, we have two branches:A) 87% of the time the turn bricks and we pushIf his line is check and fold, then our EV is p.If his line is bet all-in or bet and call, then our EV is 2p times 0.87 or 1.74p. (We might still get outdrawn on the river, so it's not the whole 2p.)B) 13% of the time an A or K falls and we're beat.Assuming his line is to bet and ours is to fold, then our EV is 0.To find the total EV we have to add each case's EV multiplied by its probability.EV = P(A) EV(A) + P(B) EV(B)If he folds, then EV = 0.87 p + 0.13 (0) = 0.87pIf he still pushes, thenEV = 0.87(1.74p) + (0.13) (0) = 1.51 pIf his line is check and fold on a brick, then our total EV is 0.87p.If his line gets him all in on the turn, then our total EV is 1.51p. Assigning probabilities to these strategies of P(f) and P(b), our EV is:EV = P(f)(0.87p) + P(b)(1.51p)P(f)+P(b)=1P(b) = 1 - P(f)Substitute for P(b):EV = P(f)(0.87p) + (1-P(f))(1.51p)EV = P(f)(0.87p) + 1.51p - P(f)(1.51p)EV = 1.51p - (0.64)P(f)Pushing the flop gives us a strategy with an EV of p. If we plug that into the previous equation, we can find what probability makes the flat-call-and-push-on-brick strategy the same.1p = 1.51p - (0.64)P(f)-0.51 p = -(0.64)P(f)80% = P(f)======== bunch of math block ===================So if the AK goes all-in on a brick turn more than 20% of the time, it's better for us to wait for the turn to make our move like you suggested.
Doesn't he only pay break-even to his equity on the flop if we assume he sees the river for free?
Yes, that's all correct.
Well, what about these considerations:1) If JJ calls a flop push, doesn't JJ also call a turn push? One thing to consider is that an A or K will drop, but this isn't so bad, is it? It lets JJ get away from us, but it also lets us get away from AA/KK/AK.2) In the cases where JJ folds to a flop push, the chances that it folds on the turn may actually be less. The reason is that if the turn comes another low card, JJ could bet again and at that point he'd be committed to calling when we come over the top. It seems like here if JJ check/folds, he was likely going to fold to the flop push anyways.
That makes sense to me.
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So if the AK goes all-in on a brick turn more than 20% of the time, it's better for us to wait for the turn to make our move like you suggested.
I might adjust the 20% downwards a little bit to account for the slightly greater likelihood that we get all of JJ's chips if we wait until the turn.But otherwise, great post and breakdown. :icon_clap:EDIT - Also, I think where I might have slightly lost you in the first post was that I didn't realize you were talking about getting AK all-in on the flop. I agree that pushing him in here and giving him 3-1 doesn't mean that it's incorrect to bet more. Doing this would still be fine - it's a breakeven play so it cannot be incorrect. Rather, the line I brought up refers to another piece of Sklansky thinking - that even if it is correct to bet at a certain point in the hand, it might be preferable to wait for a turn card that is likely to increase our pot equity and punish the opponent at that point instead.
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Any amount a villain bets with AK costs him money since he is the dog. After he bets on the flop, that money is in the pot and we can forget about that action.I was thinking about the case when a flop raise puts him all-in, so yeah he would get both cards for that cost.I agree, if you can get all his money in on the turn with an unimproved AK, that's really good. I'm going to assume that our opponent has AK and do some math and hand-waving. (I'll also point out that if he really has JJ and we fold to an ace or king on the turn, that's a disaster.)============== Bunch of math block =================Let p = pot size after your call on the flopIf you go all-in on the flop for another 1/2p, your EV is p regardless of whether he calls or folds. If you wait for the turn, we have two branches:A) 87% of the time the turn bricks and we pushIf his line is check and fold, then our EV is p.If his line is bet all-in or bet and call, then our EV is 2p times 0.87 or 1.74p. (We might still get outdrawn on the river, so it's not the whole 2p.)B) 13% of the time an A or K falls and we're beat.Assuming his line is to bet and ours is to fold, then our EV is 0.To find the total EV we have to add each case's EV multiplied by its probability.EV = P(A) EV(A) + P(B) EV(B)If he folds, then EV = 0.87 p + 0.13 (0) = 0.87pIf he still pushes, thenEV = 0.87(1.74p) + (0.13) (0) = 1.51 pIf his line is check and fold on a brick, then our total EV is 0.87p.If his line gets him all in on the turn, then our total EV is 1.51p. Assigning probabilities to these strategies of P(f) and P(B), our EV is:EV = P(f)(0.87p) + P(B)(1.51p)P(f)+P(B)=1P(B) = 1 - P(f)Substitute for P(B):EV = P(f)(0.87p) + (1-P(f))(1.51p)EV = P(f)(0.87p) + 1.51p - P(f)(1.51p)EV = 1.51p - (0.64)P(f)Pushing the flop gives us a strategy with an EV of p. If we plug that into the previous equation, we can what probability makes the flat-call-and-push-on-brick strategy the same.1p = 1.51p - (0.64)P(f)-0.51 p = -(0.64)P(f)80% = P(f)======== bunch of math block ===================So if the AK goes all-in on a brick turn more than 20% of the time, it's better for us to wait for the turn to make our move like you suggested.Yes, that's all correct.That makes sense to me.
I'm amazed this much effort was put into a post to make your point worse.
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I'm amazed this much effort was put into a post to make your point worse.
Please appreciate that my goal isn't strictly to "win" this discussion. I don't mind learning something in the process.
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Please appreciate that my goal isn't strictly to "win" this discussion. I don't mind learning something in the process.
well, while learning, i hope you realise that sometimes when we complicate the situations we dont see, we end up losing what information was there in the first place.I think you went off on a tagent and came to conclusions that are for a rare circumstance.The physical evidence of this players tight image, preflop re-raise. and short stack should be all the evidence we need.
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