Win Rate Question

[mmmikeySong 0]

for short handed limit, what should my winrate be?PokerTracker shows me to be 1.95bb/100 at 3/6 SHE after 3.3k hands. Although thanks to poker room, PT missed out on a few winning sessions so it's probably 2.5ish$673 profit after 16 hours which gives me an average of $42 an hourso that's 7bbs per houranyways, I've just confused myself majorly with numbers.So what should my bb/100 be, and bbs per hour? I saw abbaddabaababadabababa posted that at 5/10 6max a player can easily make $100 per hour.This true? I plan on moving up to 5/10 once I have 500bbs

[hotbacon 0]

3.3k hands is literally nothing.200k hands and you start to see your winrate.2 BB/100 is reasonable for a GOOD playerI think abba was talking with rakeback/bonuses etc... i could be wrong.

[mmmikeySong 0]

200k?!?! 10k hands per limit isn't enough?

[aim786 0]

200k?!?! 10k hands per limit isn't enough?

Try this: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat...rt=1&PHPSESSID=

[Wingmaster05 0]

200k just to discover your "true" winrate.10K hands is generally accepted because no one expects to be that lowly percentage that does run bad for a long period of time.

[mmmikeySong 0]

so even for short handed, 2bb/100 is a good rate?

[pokerplayer24 0]

so even for short handed, 2bb/100 is a good rate?

Extremely good.

[Abbaddabba 0]

You cant say that your winrate "should" be anything.An average players winrate is roughly -2BB/100 at 3/6, because that's how much rake accounts for typically.3k hands is nothing for full ring. At short handed, it's even less significant.You can never "know" your true winrate, even if you assume that all conditions that contribute to what you win are static. You can only know with varying degrees of certainty how close your sample winrate is to your true winrate - but it will NEVER be spot on.Typical standard deviations for full ring (if im not mistaken) is 14. Typical standard deviations for short handed is likely around 18, though it could vary a lot. The standard deviation is (correct me if my definition isnt spot on) as follows,if you take a best fit line to your graph, you check the distance between that line and the actual position of your outcomes for predetermined intervals. You square the figure (to erase the negatives). Then you take the square root. The intervals used in PT is sets of 100 hands. The average of all these terms will be your standard deviation, and it will be phrased in terms of BB/100 in pokertracker. You dont actually have to do any of the calculations yourself.In my past 50k hands of full ring, ive been winning about 2.6BB/100. My standard deviation is 14.1. If i plug the numbers in (im just estimating here, i dont have my excel sheet handy), i could say with 95% certainty that my true winrate is between 1.8BB/100 and 3.4BB/100. If i was to only have played 20k hands, for the same level of certainty (95%), the range of possible winrates would be wider. For 3k hands at full ring, at 95% confidence, you could probably only say that your true winrate is somewhere between (-5BB/100) and +7BB/100. Of course, that's a wide range - the 3k hands tell you almost nothing. For short handed, that range would be even wider still.When i said that a player at 5/10 can be making $100/hour, i didnt mean playing 1 table. A very good and effective 2/4 player playing 8 tables with full benefits can make more than $100/hour too. It all depends on how much you win, what benefits you receive and how many tables you play. But for someone who is beating a 5/10 for a good amount, $100/hour is really easy. 4 tabling at WPEX for 2BB/100 is $120/hour with 100% rakeback.Ive made an excel spreadsheet that does all the above calclulations. It's on my laptop, and my laptop is temporarily out of service - but as soon as i get the files from it, i can send it to anyone interested.

[mmmikeySong 0]

You cant say that your winrate "should" be anything.An average players winrate is roughly -2BB/100 at 3/6, because that's how much rake accounts for typically.3k hands is nothing for full ring. At short handed, it's even less significant.You can never "know" your true winrate, even if you assume that all conditions that contribute to what you win are static. You can only know with varying degrees of certainty how close your sample winrate is to your true winrate - but it will NEVER be spot on.Typical standard deviations for full ring (if im not mistaken) is 14. Typical standard deviations for short handed is likely around 18, though it could vary a lot. The standard deviation is (correct me if my definition isnt spot on) as follows,if you take a best fit line to your graph, you check the distance between that line and the actual position of your outcomes for predetermined intervals. You square the figure (to erase the negatives). Then you take the square root. The intervals used in PT is sets of 100 hands. The average of all these terms will be your standard deviation, and it will be phrased in terms of BB/100 in pokertracker. You dont actually have to do any of the calculations yourself.In my past 50k hands of full ring, ive been winning about 2.6BB/100. My standard deviation is 14.1. If i plug the numbers in (im just estimating here, i dont have my excel sheet handy), i could say with 95% certainty that my true winrate is between 1.8BB/100 and 3.4BB/100. If i was to only have played 20k hands, for the same level of certainty (95%), the range of possible winrates would be wider. For 3k hands at full ring, at 95% confidence, you could probably only say that your true winrate is somewhere between (-5BB/100) and +7BB/100. Of course, that's a wide range - the 3k hands tell you almost nothing. For short handed, that range would be even wider still.When i said that a player at 5/10 can be making $100/hour, i didnt mean playing 1 table. A very good and effective 2/4 player playing 8 tables with full benefits can make more than $100/hour too. It all depends on how much you win, what benefits you receive and how many tables you play. But for someone who is beating a 5/10 for a good amount, $100/hour is really easy. 4 tabling at WPEX for 2BB/100 is $120/hour with 100% rakeback.Ive made an excel spreadsheet that does all the above calclulations. It's on my laptop, and my laptop is temporarily out of service - but as soon as i get the files from it, i can send it to anyone interested.

send me the file pleasebut what's the "standard" winrate for short handed players?

[Abbaddabba 0]

There is no standard.There is an average though, and it's almost exactly equal to how much you lose in rake.Rake usually hits each player a bit harder short handed small stakes games; closer to 3BB/100 (dont know the exact figure because my database is also on my laptop).So you could say that the average player at 3/6 short handed is a -3BB/100 loser.

[mmmikeySong 0]

There is no standard.There is an average though, and it's almost exactly equal to how much you lose in rake.Rake usually hits each player a bit harder short handed small stakes games; closer to 3BB/100 (dont know the exact figure because my database is also on my laptop).So you could say that the average player at 3/6 short handed is a -3BB/100 loser.

if it hits lower stakes limit players harder, especially in short handed, would it make more sense to play NL then assuming you're a winning player?

[Abbaddabba 0]

Ive never calculated what rake accounts for in no limit.I dont think there's a significant difference.

[aim786 0]

send me the file pleasebut what's the "standard" winrate for short handed players?

I've got my excel file handy that calculates the confidence interval for your win rate. If abba has'nt sent it to you yet, just send me a PM.

[Wingmaster05 0]

win rate not really something to mull over. Seriously, don't worry about it.

[mikeysong 0]

win rate not really something to mull over. Seriously, don't worry about it.

why not? I associate winrate w/how i'm playing. Obviously if i'm -bb or like .4bb/100 my game needs fixing. Gotta get those bad habits out asap!

[Zach6668 513]

why not? I associate winrate w/how i'm playing. Obviously if i'm -bb or like .4bb/100 my game needs fixing. Gotta get those bad habits out asap!

Yeah, if you are running like that over 100k hands. Short term win rate means nothing.- Zach

[Abbaddabba 0]

I agree that knowing your winrate doesnt really tell you anything about what you should do, except that maybe you should quit poker if it's negative over a significant number of hands.But it sure is fun to make all the calculations and figure out what you could expect to win over the course of a year, and what a low end and high end figure would be.

[kdogg 0]

mikey, you can be 95% confident that your true winrate is between -4.19 and 8.09 BB/100 (based on a standard deviation of 18).

[hotbacon 0]

why not? I associate winrate w/how i'm playing. Obviously if i'm -bb or like .4bb/100 my game needs fixing. Gotta get those bad habits out asap!

I'm running .5 BB/100 after 65k hands, and I'd consider myself a 1.5+ BB/100 player.

[Abbaddabba 0]

Supposing those 65k hands are an exhaustive sample of hands for you at those stakes,If you're talking about full ring (SD=14) , there's about a 3% chance that you're a 1.5BB/100 winner or more. There is also a 17% chance that you're a losing player (<= 0BB/100)If you're talking about short handed (SD=18), there's about a 7.5% chance that you're a 1.5BB/100 winner or more. There is also a 25% chance that you're a losing player (<= 0BB/100)

[econ_tim 0]

I saw abbaddabba posted that at 5/10 6max a player can easily make $100 per hour.This true?

yes, but you have to be able to beat the game soundly while multitabling. and you'll probably need rakeback if you don't like playing lots of tables.