River Value Bet?

[jayboogie 0]

4 Handed LHEHero has QJ on the buttonReads: Opponent is a very good player and will play hands tricky and is very aggressive.Hero raises PF, sb 3-bets, bb folds, hero callsFLOP: 9 T J rainbowsb bets, hero raises, sb 3-bets, hero capsTURN: Qsb checks, hero bets, sb callsRiver: Asb checks, hero?

[econ_tim 0]

at first i was worried about a c/r, but i think villain is check/calling most hands here, e.g. AT. maybe he will c/r Kx, but why wouldn't he do that on the turn? so i think the question boils down to assigning the villains calling range and seeing whether you beat <50% of it. i think it's a bet.

[AlphaOmega 0]

A lot of his two pair hands beat us already, and the ones that don't are going to be hard pressed to call this river. I just think that too often we are value betting with the worst hand.I did some stoving and gave the villain a typical three-betting range of 77+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo. With this range, we are losing almost 88 percent of the time, and the combos need to be weighted towards the stronger end of the spectrum since this villain isn't sticking around with a lot of the hands that we beat.Edit: I just read your analysis Tim, and it makes sense. This would mean that we should assign less weight towards the villain's king hands, but we still have a lot of equity to overcome.

[pokerplayer24 0]

Easy check.I mean what do we have beat?Q10, J10 and thats it.

[jayboogie 0]

One of the important factors in this hand is that my opponent is a good player. That would mean that he likely is not paying me off with hands like QT, JT, 9T which are the only hands I beat that could even possibly think about calling. Against a weaker player who is liable to call down with weaker hands, it's probably a value bet.Turns out he did in fact have JT, which made me think about the hand again and whether I should have value bet and I still believe the check is correct given who I was playing against.