throwemaway 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 No read on Villain, just got moved to my table..25 left, I have a medium stack PokerStars (8 handed) Villain: $21,831Hero: $8,407Blinds 200/400 Ante 25Villain UTG raises to 1200Folds around to Hero on Button with 99Hero calls, Blinds foldPot: $3200Flop: 8 5 5 RainbowVillain bets $1600Hero: ???Edit: Hand converter wasn't working, had to do it by hand Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 Kind of helps to know what he does on the flop when you're in position here. good luck Link to post Share on other sites
therrinn 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 Ugh, this is a tough spot. First of all, I don't like your call preflop at all. Whenever you make a play, you should be thinking about why you're doing it. Why did you put 1200 (1/7th of your stack) into the pot against an EP raiser with 99? What flop are you hoping to see? If overcards flop, you're folding to his continuation bet. If undercards flop, you're wondering whether your pair is good or if he has overs. If you hit your set, you're golden, but that doesn't happen nearly often enough to justify a 'set or fold' strategy here. You have to figure out for yourself how you're going to play a pair in this middle stack situations. You can either fold it or you can reraise and go with it. Don't call. Remember that its usually way cheaper to get information about villain early in a hand then it is to wait another street. As for why I'm not giving you advice on what to do in this particular hand: your preflop action left you in a spot where 7/8 of the time you're going to be forced with a very hard decision here, and you should never really get to a spot like this. In the strategy guide thread I mention exploiting the tendencies of people with low Ms calling to see a flop too often. You've fallen into that trap. That said, villain has a very large stack for this stage in the tournament, so he's probably been dominating the table in addition to getting lucky in a hand or two. I'd take an aggressive line in this hand. Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 If you hit your set, you're golden, but that doesn't happen nearly often enough to justify a 'set or fold' strategy here. Actually it happens just enough.Not that I'd play it that way.good luck. Link to post Share on other sites
therrinn 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 If you hit your set, you're golden, but that doesn't happen nearly often enough to justify a 'set or fold' strategy here. Actually it happens just enough.Not that I'd play it that way.good luck.Actually, it doesn't. Unless you're making the ridiculous assumption that every time you hit a set you're getting all of your opponent's money in the pot, you're not even close to geting the odds for a set or fold play here. Link to post Share on other sites
throwemaway 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Author Share Posted May 31, 2006 How would you play it Smash? Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 I agree with therrinn. You will bubble more often with his advice, but you maximize your chances of going further in the tournament by gambling here.Check out his strategy guide to these tournaments. It's worth reading if you want to play more than a few of these. Link to post Share on other sites
throwemaway 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Author Share Posted May 31, 2006 I was def. using it as a guide as I was playing and it was helping..Unfortunately I had a brain lapse with this hand..With this middle stack, I really put myself at a tough decision on the flopI feel like the middle stack is by far the hardest to play..Short stacked your only 2 moves are all in or fold, and big stacked you have lee way and can really pick and choose your spots..I was pretty pissed off after this hand, partly by my play and then by my opponents, as I will post results later Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 Actually, it doesn't. Unless you're making the ridiculous assumption that every time you hit a set you're getting all of your opponent's money in the pot, you're not even close to geting the odds for a set or fold play here.No, I figure he'll fold getting almost 2 to 1 all the time so it doesn't matter if I flop one or not. What's he folding when I push with a set?Stop thinking he gets to see my cards and you'll make more money.good luck. Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 Stop thinking he gets to see my cards and you'll make more money.good luck.Best-case scenario, we're getting 7.6:1. You need a read and a deeper stack to play set or fold, and it's not close.If you want to start taking the pot away when it appears that the flop missed him, the play shifts to +EV, IMO. True "set or fold" is asinine here. Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 If you want to start taking the pot away when it appears that the flop missed him, the play shifts to +EV, IMO. But true "set or fold" is asinine here.No, it's not. It's not the best play, but it's not -EV.good luck. Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 If you want to start taking the pot away when it appears that the flop missed him, the play shifts to +EV, IMO. But true "set or fold" is asinine here.No, it's not. It's not the best play, but it's not -EV.good luck.Explain how calling with marginal implied odds on the assumption that the villain will always pay us off and never outdraw when we hit our set is +EV. Link to post Share on other sites
Scott3705 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 W/o a read on Villian, I'd be inclined to call preflop and push this flop if he were in MP2 or later. Against UTG unknown villian who is probably being a bully, but we're not sure about, I think I'll fold PF and just let think progress. We're not in an awful chip position here. Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 Explain how calling with marginal implied odds on the assumption that the villain will always pay us off and never outdraw when we hit our set is +EV.They're not marginal.Let me say for about the 1000th time that it's not the best play, and not how I'd play it, but it's absolutely +EV.Maybe you're missing the dead money in the pot?good luck. Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 They're not marginal. 7.6:1 (with a slew of terrible assumptions) on an 8:1 proposition isn't marginal?Dead money in the pot is 825, raise is 1200, we have 7200 more to add. That's 9200/1200...7.67:1. Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 7.6:1 (with a slew of terrible assumptions) on an 8:1 proposition isn't marginal?No, it's not.Because it's not a cash game. It's also, again, not the best play.good luck. Link to post Share on other sites
Scott3705 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 Because it's not a cash game. It's also, again, not the best play.good luck.What's the best play here? Link to post Share on other sites
BeaverStyle 1 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 Since i'm just out of jail, my advice may not be that accurate...I'd raise preflop, or fold, and i don't see folding as an option.Raise before the flop.... Might even push..?That's all i got, i'm trying to get back into the groove of things.What did he have? What did he have?!?! Link to post Share on other sites
shpaget 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 You call 1200 with the express purpose of pushing all-in on any flop, where utg does not push first.You figure that 67% of the time you push utg will fold.And let's assume, that on avg, utg cb's 1600 every time.(utg's $1200+blinds'$600+utg's$1600)*.67= +$2278And, of the 33% of the time you get called:4% you have a set and it holds up 2% you are behind a pair and suck out 9% you are ahead and stay ahead15% you win ($1200+$600+$7200)*.15 = +135015% you are behind and stay behind3% you are ahead and get sucked out18% you lose everything $8400*.18 = -$1512EV=+$2116Massage the numbers as you will, but looks +EV to me - even you if you only win 5% of the times you get called post-flop.I think him folding 2/3 times is reasonable. Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 You call 1200 with the express purpose of pushing all-in on any flop, where utg does not push first.This is not "set or fold." As I said above, if you start adjusting and playing after the flop when you don't hit a 9, it can be a winning play.I understand that smash does not think it's the best play. Link to post Share on other sites
shpaget 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 This is not "set or fold." As I said above, if you start adjusting and playing after the flop when you don't hit a 9, it can be a winning play.I understand that smash does not think it's the best play.The point, to me, is it doesnt' matter if you hit a set or not...you shouldn't be playing "no set no bet" against one opponent anyway.And, for once, I agree with smash that it's not necessarily the best play. Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 The point, to me, is it doesnt' matter if you hit a set or not...you shouldn't be playing "no set no bet" against one opponent anyway.And, for once, I agree with smash that it's not necessarily the best play. If you hit your set, you're golden, but that doesn't happen nearly often enough to justify a 'set or fold' strategy here. Actually it happens just enough.Not that I'd play it that way.good luck.Seems to me that he's suggesting "set or fold" is +EV here. I apologize if there has been some confusion. Link to post Share on other sites
throwemaway 0 Posted May 31, 2006 Author Share Posted May 31, 2006 ResultsHe called, getting about 2 to 1, and had Ace queen...Turn AceI lose Link to post Share on other sites
therrinn 0 Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 Seems to me that he's suggesting "set or fold" is +EV here. I apologize if there has been some confusion.Exactly, if you read my post, I said set or fold is a dumb strategy to take here. Smash responded that set or fold is +EV. It's not. Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 Exactly, if you read my post, I said set or fold is a dumb strategy to take here. Smash responded that set or fold is +EV. It's not.It is. I realize you'll never understand why, so I'll stop trying now, because it's nowhere near the best play and has just about zero to do with this thread. good luck Link to post Share on other sites
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