Flopped The Nuts And Folded.

[Mercury69 3]

Has anyone said anything about flopping their nuts in the OP's mouth?Teabagging ftw!

[jcpoker 0]

call

[Cue 0]

My main issue with this fold is that even if your read is dead on perfect, that they have a flush draw and a set, and that is the worst possible situation you could possibly be in (ignoring the freak possibility of someone having 86 of spades) you are still 39% to win this pot.I also refuse to believe that the players were so horrible that you were almost guaranteed to cash with 20 left and 6 cashing. Even if they were that bad, the increasing blinds would likely eat at your stack, and you would have less room to outplay them. Tournaments don't last forever. If they did, the best players would win much more often. Instead, you have to pick your spots to gamble, and I think it is asinine not to pick this spot.

This is the best response so far IMO.It was my opinion and my gut that told me in that instance that I should not gamble here. I usually do but for whatever reason my read was saying no. i trusted it and went with it. My examination had me out if my read was right and only improved (albeit greatly) if I was wrong.

[turd ferguson 1]

This is the best response so far IMO.It was my opinion and my gut that told me in that instance that I should not gamble here. I usually do but for whatever reason my read was saying no. i trusted it and went with it. My examination had me out if my read was right and only improved (albeit greatly) if I was wrong.

Seems to me as though your "gut" is scared money.

[zimmer4141 0]

This is the best response so far IMO.It was my opinion and my gut that told me in that instance that I should not gamble here. I usually do but for whatever reason my read was saying no. i trusted it and went with it. My examination had me out if my read was right and only improved (albeit greatly) if I was wrong.

But even if you're read is right the play is still +EV. There simply come times where the blinds get big enough where you have to gamble unless you get at a table with 9 players who play nothing but AA, and you can chop away at blinds with no interference. You have to go all in eventually, and there is no better time than having no worse than a 39% chance getting probably about 2.5-1 on your money.

[speedz99 145]

I can't believe this thread is 8 pages long. It's an obvious fold, so let's move on with our lives.

[Scott3705 0]

the only one twisting the situation is you. You are saying the two scenerios I faced were both win win.I painted the correct scenerios. My read is either right or wrong. If it is right there are two outcomes. they catch or they dont. If they don't catch my read was right but my non call wrong as I would have got paid. If they do catch then my read was right and non-call was good as it kept me in the game.If my read is wrong then there are still two outcomes. They either catch or they don't. But the odds are much greater in my favour and I gave up a great chance to make a huge pot.I have not misrepresented the scenerio at all. That is you.

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying you are twisting the outcomes of the scenarios. In your response to my post, you painted the end of one scenario with you getting knocked out where the end result of the other one (you're read not being right) is that you wouldn't. Which wasn't the case. Clearly you can see how even flipping the cards face up and making your decision is completely wrong for some people here. (Including myself). But in addition, the upside is that you are even less likely to get beaten and you're going to have a greater than 60% edge getting better than 3:1. If my read is wrong then there are still two outcomes. They either catch or they don't. But the odds are much greater in my favour and I gave up a great chance to make a huge pot.I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume, you have a difficult time getting points across in writing. However, the above statement is twisting the situation to suit your fold and make it more acceptable. it reads 1) If i'm right I lose, 2) If I'm wrong I win. And it's not that cut and dry. Your fold is bad with the cards face up and it is as Krup said, atrocious w/ an imperfect read. I have not misrepresented the scenerio at all. That is you.What have I misrepresetned by the way?

[Mercury69 3]

Zimmer, have my babies.

[InertGrudge 0]

I still think looking at this from a purely odds and pot odds standpoint may be fine.You're 39% to win. You have 2.5:1 odds. This is an obvious call based on that. If you get a huge stack, then you can start to coast a little.Also Cue, you seem to have stumbled into this sort of results-based thinking. You said that your "non-call" would have been wrong if they don't catch. This is incorrect in every sense. You should disregard what ACTUALLY happened at the end of the hand. The results don't matter. You should focus on making correct decisions based upon your reads, your cards and the odds. You did not do this.Now, you're trying to justify it in the wrong manner. You didn't want to gamble because you were scared money. That's it.

[nutzbuster 7]

Matt Damon

Dirka Dirka

[Randy Reed 0]

Oh geez, I breezed through this and am amazed that no one has not called out the OP for just starting another brag post.How many different ways can I tell the internet forum that I make uncanny reads, let me count the ways. Hmm, I know, I'll start a thread about calling with garbage and flopping the nuts, then folding, ha, that will get me 10 pages of flaming, but at least everyone will know that I make great readsI'm outy

[Cue 0]

Seems to me as though your "gut" is scared money.

You could be right. But it could also be a risk/reward scenerio that both you and I play differently.For me the two outcomes, 'right and bust' versus 'wrong and improve position', did not merit my call in that situation. In others maybe...but not on that day.

[turd ferguson 1]

You are right, as usual. But it could also be a risk/reward scenerio that you would have played correctly and I botched completely.For me the two outcomes, 'right and bust' versus 'wrong and improve position', did not merit my call in that situation because I'm weak/tight and afraid to lose.

That's a little more accurate.

[zimmer4141 0]

Zimmer, have my babies.

I'm too young to have kids. Maybe in a few years.

[Vick12 0]

No I don't agree as I think sometimes the best way to play to win is to play to get into the money and that can mean adjusting your play. You define playing to win in a very narrow way."No...I didn't...By win, i mean WIN! I am not playing for 2nd, 3rd, or to cash. Anything less than 1st is a failure period!"Many successful MTT adjust their early round play versus their later round play even when given the same hands. Some don't even play the early rounds because they don't want to catch a good hand and lose to a suck out when they cannot get people to fold."Please name me a single successful mtt'er who folds big hands early cuz they don't want them cracked?"I will say this again and that is that when you are 34% to win you are 66% to lose and why any player who felt he was better then both the other players would be the 3rd of 3 to push all his chips in here I don't know."Simple...Because even if you are Phil "I can dodge bullets" Hellmuth and read teh situation PERFECT (kudos I guess...u did) then you are paying less than 33% (forgot preflop action) when u are 40% to win....what aren't u gettiing? And what if...OMG, your read was wrong? What if 1 had the set and 1 had top pair? Or what if one had 2 pair and the other was bluffing air? Now you are A SIGNIFICANT fave vs. those 2 hands getting 2.5 to 1 on the call"If you go into this same situation with these 2 guys 3 times you only win once and that is only if you are lucky enough to hit your odds."No...If U play the hand 100 times, u win 38.

But even if you're read is right the play is still +EV. There simply come times where the blinds get big enough where you have to gamble unless you get at a table with 9 players who play nothing but AA, and you can chop away at blinds with no interference. You have to go all in eventually, and there is no better time than having no worse than a 39% chance getting probably about 2.5-1 on your money.

Zimmer has this nailed perfectly.

Zimmer, have my babies.

LOLCueI am done w/ this topic because you are failing to listen to what others are saying. In your ORIGINAL POST you asked....RESULTS ASIDE did i make the wrong move....results aside YES, you made the WRONG move. Can u get better from it...YES. Take the time to ask some of the Tourney Strat posters (Coper, Strat, Bizz, MK, Rinn, and many others) if you made the right move. Don't believe FCP? Go to 2+2 or P5's and see what their people say. Fact is...you had a VERY+EV situation that you passed on. Once you learn to maximize situations where you are +EV, the sooner you will become a better player.FWIW

[Cue 0]

Scott3705 That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying you are twisting the outcomes of the scenarios.

No I am not. You are. Again there are 4 outcomes from two situations. My read is either right or wrong.Read right = 1 - the odds are that I do not win this hand and am 60% to lose and they hit2 - they miss and I winRead wrong =1 - they have lesser draws (even top pair can improve to beat me) and hit to beat me2- they have lesser draws and miss

In your response to my post, you painted the end of one scenario with you getting knocked out

yes. That is actually what would have happened had I called as the boat came.

where the end result of the other one (you're read not being right) is that you wouldn't.

yes. If I read it wrong and they had a lesser draw the odds of me winning the hand would have been in my favour.

Which wasn't the case.

explain???

Clearly you can see how even flipping the cards face up and making your decision is completely wrong for some people here. (Including myself).

Indeed. people will always be different. Face up I do not make that call as it put them on exactly what I thought they had.I do not willingly go in at 60% to lose for ALL my chips at that point in the tourney.

But in addition, the upside is that you are even less likely to get beaten and you're going to have a greater than 60% edge getting better than 3:1.

huh?

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume, you have a difficult time getting points across in writing.

thx.

However, the above statement is twisting the situation to suit your fold and make it more acceptable.

Again. no it is not. But your situation where you painted my position as win/win did.

it reads 1) If i'm right I lose, 2) If I'm wrong I win. And it's not that cut and dry.

If my read is right then the odds have me losing almost 2 out of 3 times I face that situation. If my read is wrong and they have lesser draws then the odd's have me winning more then I lose. That is what was said and intended above.

Your fold is bad with the cards face up and it is as Krup said, atrocious w/ an imperfect read.

Face up I make that fold. If I KNOW I am 60% to lose then I am not calling there. Not in that situaiton where it is ALL my chips and the downside is being busted and out versus improving but no guarantee of getting into the money.

What have I misrepresetned by the way?

This...

Your downside was still a positive EV spot that could have given you a huge chip lead over the field. Your potential upside is an even more +EV situation where you're even more a lock to get a huge stack here

That is a complete understating of the situation. you make it seem like upside/upside.My downside was that my read was right and the odds played out like they should and one of them caught and I did not win the hand (what actually would have happened if I called) and was busted out of the tourney.

I still think looking at this from a purely odds and pot odds standpoint may be fine.You're 39% to win. You have 2.5:1 odds. This is an obvious call based on that. If you get a huge stack, then you can start to coast a little.Also Cue, you seem to have stumbled into this sort of results-based thinking. You said that your "non-call" would have been wrong if they don't catch. This is incorrect in every sense. You should disregard what ACTUALLY happened at the end of the hand. The results don't matter. You should focus on making correct decisions based upon your reads, your cards and the odds. You did not do this.Now, you're trying to justify it in the wrong manner. You didn't want to gamble because you were scared money. That's it.

Based on pot odds and in a cash game I make that call everytime even face up.The difference it the ability to reload.here I am weighing the odds of getting 3:1 and the benefit of that versus busting out when I am 60% to do so.In a cash game you simply reload and hope for that same situation to occur where when you win it next time the pot odds make up for your losing. In a tourney no such opportunity exists.

[Bizzle 0]

I've read through this thread. I am sort of curious as to what rules were broken here.Number 3 sort of applies.This post could be an example of how to break number 4.This might be the best example ever of how to break number 5.But hey, you followed number 8 to a T.

[Cue 0]

Oh geez, I breezed through this and am amazed that no one has not called out the OP for just starting another brag post.How many different ways can I tell the internet forum that I make uncanny reads, let me count the ways. Hmm, I know, I'll start a thread about calling with garbage and flopping the nuts, then folding, ha, that will get me 10 pages of flaming, but at least everyone will know that I make great readsI'm outy

heh. you got me. this was all about stroking my ego and as planned it worked so well.

[bobbywithani 0]

.My downside was that my read was right and the odds played out like they should and one of them caught and I did not win the hand (what actually would have happened if I called) and was busted out of the tourney.Based on pot odds and in a cash game I make that call everytime even face up.The difference it the ability to reload.here I am weighing the odds of getting 3:1 and the benefit of that versus busting out when I am 60% to do so.In a cash game you simply reload and hope for that same situation to occur where when you win it next time the pot odds make up for your losing. In a tourney no such opportunity exists.

You can always play another tourney. People use "If I lose I'm out" to justify horrible plays, this is one of the worst.

[InertGrudge 0]

My downside was that my read was right and the odds played out like they should and one of them caught and I did not win the hand (what actually would have happened if I called) and was busted out of the tourney.Based on pot odds and in a cash game I make that call everytime even face up.The difference it the ability to reload.here I am weighing the odds of getting 3:1 and the benefit of that versus busting out when I am 60% to do so.In a cash game you simply reload and hope for that same situation to occur where when you win it next time the pot odds make up for your losing. In a tourney no such opportunity exists.

Result-based thinking. Stop that. Stop that now. Oh, and the odds didn't work out as they should. If that was the case, then 40% of the pot or so should have went to the guy with the flush draw. It didn't.

[Scott3705 0]

????

With your last responses I realize I can't have this argument w/ you since you really don't understand some basic ideas of poker. namely pot odds and non-result based thinking. I retire from general.

[Cue 0]

Zimmer has this nailed perfectly.LOLCueI am done w/ this topic because you are failing to listen to what others are saying. In your ORIGINAL POST you asked....RESULTS ASIDE did i make the wrong move....results aside YES, you made the WRONG move. Can u get better from it...YES. Take the time to ask some of the Tourney Strat posters (Coper, Strat, Bizz, MK, Rinn, and many others) if you made the right move. Don't believe FCP? Go to 2+2 or P5's and see what their people say. Fact is...you had a VERY+EV situation that you passed on. Once you learn to maximize situations where you are +EV, the sooner you will become a better player.FWIW

Listening =/= agreeingI am certainly listening to everything said. Further to that I am considering it all very seriously. I don't necessarily agree with everything said nor do I think I have to.And I admit that maybe that is a limitation I have as a player as it seems pretty clear that people are saying that even tourney specialists like Todd Brunson should push all-in pre money if he has a slight +EV against a complete poker newbie...and risk the coin flip rather then playing for better percentages at better times.I just can't agree with people whose poker outlook is that black and white and that might be my limitation.If I am short stacked and or need to make a move I push everytime in the situation I described even with my read. When I am one of the bigger stacks and feel confident in my read and make the decision to wait rather then push when I feel I will be 60% to lose then I am ok with that.If this hand was played face up at that juncture with my position, I still fold. About 2 out of 3 times I play on, whereas you bust. In those two out of 3 do I make into the money? who knows. Do you in the 1 where you don't? who knows. Does your one win make you more money then my two? Who knows.

[Nichols 0]

After reading 9 pages of this thread (and it grew three pages while I caught up and probably more while writing this) I have to say that your original question 'did I make a mistake in a tourney to fold with this hand' was answered many times over. You apparently don't like the answers that most have given (yes, it was a mistake) and a few have either agreed with your fold or said it wasn't the worst thing you could do. But what I don't understand is why did you post and ask this question if when people take the time to answer you disagree with them?Just seems a little odd...I want to post a situation and ask for your OPINIONS, but when you give them I am not going to accept them unless they agree with what I did.I too play in a lot of tourneys and the best I can do is get my money in with the best odds/hand. That is what you could have done. You have to realize that even with the best hand it will be cracked a lot of the time...that is the luck factor after the math is taken into consideration. But never the less, it is the way it happens. I would agree that if you are going to flop the current nuts and not make the call with the better odds then you shouldn't play tournament poker because it is a type of game that luck and math both need to work in your favor to win. All you can control is that the math applied is correct. If you don't put it in with the math in your favor, you don't give luck (or odds) the opportunity to win for you. Every tournament winner has to have both things going for them (math and luck) and allow their hands the opportunity to hold up with the best of it.I will end with this...if you aren't interested in what the opinions are of those who post their answers to your question, then don't ask the question.

[Cue 0]

You can always play another tourney. People use "If I lose I'm out" to justify horrible plays, this is one of the worst.

What if this is your first trip to the WSOP? You are in day 1 session 1 and the room is full of donks.You know you probably have the best hand but all around you people are pushing and calling all in with any two cards. They are playing it like a rebuy tourney. Do you play it exactly the same as later in the tourney or do you adjust?I know a lot of pro's avoid the early stages because they don't want to catch a good hand and bust to a suck out and they know the odds of that are great early despite the fact that chasers would be giving them great pot odds.Many say they avoid the big pots and play many smaller pots.Are they wrong??

[tskillz187 0]

To the people seeking coinflips because Matros wrote an article about it on Cardplayer (I think it was Matros), does not make it correct. A lot of well respected professionals do not agree with his train of thought. Also, Zimmer already brought up the point that just because it is +EV does not mean it is the best decision, which I completely agree with.To OP, why did you show your fold to the table? That was for ego stroking. Why the hell would you want them to think you could fold the nuts? How did you not proceed to get ran over? I'll play with you at Fallsview, it is the softest game on the planet, I'm quite sure by playing very weak tight you are coming ahead a winner. Again Zimmer made best point with folding, there is no way to know that they have the flush draw and the set. It is VERY possible for them to both have sets and for you to make a horrible fold. It is much better to make a marginal call than to make a disastrous fold and there is no way you could know the exact cards they were holding. In fact, you didnt, the other guy was holding Kx of spades, so he must not have been all as tight as you thought. At least you are thinking very hard about your game and techniques, but I think you are off here. There is no way im folding the nuts with 20 people left and only 6 getting paid. This would be an acceptable fold if playing Omaha. Hope you get through all the negativity and actually take the constructive criticism to try and tweak your play a little.