Flopped The Nuts And Folded.

[Cue 0]

CueHi!I will try an be as nice as possible....1st...don't post about NL Tourney Strat EVER until you have spent at least a month reading the Tourney Strat portion of this site. There are some GREAT posters in there who will help your game IMMEASURABLY!!!!2nd...I couldn't care less about your Horse Racing arguments, your reads, blah blah blah...Poker is a very simple game at its core....I can sum it up 2 ways.1. Get your money in when you are AHEAD.2. If you can't get your money in AHEAD, have the POT ODDS dictate your call.So...in our example, I will make it 1st Grade easy for you...Everyone at the table has 100 dollars. On flop Player A w/ set puts his $100 in...Player B w/ draw puts his $100 in....now its to you...1. Are you ahead w/ the NUTS? YES...this means YOU CALL!!!!2. Are you behind but have pot odds? NO...You aren't behind. In fact we have already proven that you are still AHEAD of both other players. Now if by some chance the NUTS was behind...and this is important...YOU ARE GETTING 2 TO 1 TO CALL!!!! To justify this play your hand would only have to be 33% to make the call.So even if they FLIPPED OVER THEIR HANDS and u didn't have the greatest read ever...YOU HAVE TO CALL 33% OF THE POT WHEN YOU ARE 46% TO WIN!!!!!!If you still don't get this concept...i'd really try a different game.

Hey Vic. Thx for trying to be nice as I know that is hard on this site ;}So you are going to focus on this "ahead" "concept" and try to state it as an immutable law. Basically if you are ahead always call ANY and ALL all-ins.So lets look at what "ahead" really means by examing hands played face up.Hand 1 - 5 playersyou - KQsuitedp2 - 77p3 - 10/9 suitedp4 - 87 suitedp5 - JJ suitedin this example you see everyones cards and know that you are ahead. You are 31% to win with the next closest being 29%. But still you will lose this more then twice as often as you win it.If I am on the bubble in a tourney I do not call this EVER. If I am in the money I may and probably will. My point is that there may be a good argument to be made as to why i should call but the "ahead" argument is not it. In a cash game it is entirely different because what you will make (getting paid 5:1 when you hit) means you make up for what you lose (losing 2 out of 3 times) . But getting 5:1 in a tourney versus busting out of 2 out of every 3 tourneys is not good math. The 5:1 means you are only in a better position to finish higher (but no guarentee) whereas busting out is a guarantee that you lose.

OK fine. Instead of horse racing, let's make this a roulette type game. I give you the first 17 of 36 numbers. You have to bet $1 to win $100,000. Do you take it? By your logic, you don't because you aren't favored to win.Channeling Smash here:You are wrong. Do you see why?

Your example is so dumb it is hardly worthy of reply.For your roulette game example to be of any worth you would have to give me the 13 numbers, player 2 the next 12 numbers and player 3 the next 11 numbers.Then you would have us each put in 1/3 of a Million of our own money with it being winner take all.YEs I am favoured to win over the other two players but the odds say I will lose this twice as much as I will win.Do I put my money in here. NO WAY!

[bascomeb 0]

you are wrongreally? so your saying that you don't think you will have a better edge over your opponent in a later hand? aks vs 22 is 49.8-49.6%, while ako vs 22 is 46.7-52.8%. so i think risking your whole stack for such a slim edge is a HUGE mistake, assuming you both have roughly the same amount of chips.

oh my please read this article and get your ego out of herehttp://cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archi...5093&m_id=65576

[....Ian.... 0]

cue, let it go it's not ever worth it. i dont think the play was all that bad. again, dunno what i would do, but but i'm not gonna fault you. aannndddddd. dont think anyone actually said: nice read on oponents

[Vick12 0]

Hey Vic. Thx for trying to be nice as I know that is hard on this site ;}So you are going to focus on this "ahead" "concept" and try to state it as an immutable law. Basically if you are ahead always call ANY and ALL all-ins.So lets look at what "ahead" really means by examing hands played face up.Hand 1 - 5 playersyou - KQsuitedp2 - 77p3 - 10/9 suitedp4 - 87 suitedp5 - JJ suitedin this example you see everyones cards and know that you are ahead. You are 31% to win with the next closest being 29%. But still you will lose this more then twice as often as you win it.If I am on the bubble in a tourney I do not call this EVER. If I am in the money I may and probably will. My point is that there may be a good argument to be made as to why i should call but the "ahead" argument is not it. In a cash game it is entirely different because what you will make (getting paid 5:1 when you hit) means you make up for what you lose (losing 2 out of 3 times) . But getting 5:1 in a tourney versus busting out of 2 out of every 3 tourneys is not good math. The 5:1 means you are only in a better position to finish higher (but no guarentee) whereas busting out is a guarantee that you lose.Your example is so dumb it is hardly worthy of reply.For your roulette game example to be of any worth you would have to give me the 13 numbers, player 2 the next 12 numbers and player 3 the next 11 numbers.Then you would have us each put in 1/3 of a Million of our own money with it being winner take all.YEs I am favoured to win over the other two players but the odds say I will lose this twice as much as I will win.Do I put my money in here. NO WAY!

CueYes...you are ahead in your argument, but there are no stack sizes, bets, etc...w/o those factors its impossible to dictate your play.Take a look at the BOLDED portion of your statement...read it closely...keep it branded on your brain...got it...i mean read it once more...OK...ready...NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER PLAY A MTT TO JUST CASH!!!If you are not tryin to WIN when u play MTT's, you should not play them at all. In your argument u speak of bubbling...the bubble should NEVER matter when u make a decision based on equity. If you have a +EV situation on the bubble (actually ESPECIALLY on the bubble) and you don't take it, you are not playing MTT's optimally.Hope that helped!

[Cue 0]

you are wrongreally? so your saying that you don't think you will have a better edge over your opponent in a later hand? aks vs 22 is 49.8-49.6%, while ako vs 22 is 46.7-52.8%. so i think risking your whole stack for such a slim edge is a HUGE mistake, assuming you both have roughly the same amount of chips.

I will never understand why good players allow themselves to get into coin flips against marginal or bad players when they know over time they will beat them in hands where they can control the situation more.In my situation I have to call an ALL-In after two other players where I know I am only 33% to win the hand. I feel pretty confident that in time I will have better place and position to knock them both out regardless.Coin flips negate ALL poker skill and make marginal players equal to great players.Just because you are gambling does not mean you always have to gamble.If I put Todd Brunson in 10 tourneys versus 20 different lesser players and present him with my opening scenerio in all of them and he calls everytime he is only going to win about 3 of them.If he folds and plays the games out he will likely win 6 or more of them.

[bascomeb 0]

I will never understand why good players allow themselves to get into coin flips against marginal or bad players when they know over time they will beat them in hands where they can control the situation more.In my situation I have to call an ALL-In after two other players where I know I am only 33% to win the hand. I feel pretty confident that in time I will have better place and position to knock them both out regardless.Coin flips negate ALL poker skill and make marginal players equal to great players.Just because you are gambling does not mean you always have to gamble.If I put Todd Brunson in 10 tourneys versus 20 different lesser players and present him with my opening scenerio in all of them and he calls everytime he is only going to win about 3 of them.If he folds and plays the games out he will likely win 6 or more of them.

You keep lowering your % of how far you're ahead each time you tell the story. Hmmm changing the story huh? Must mean only one thing... You are so wrongOh and again please read the article that Turd brought up. I know its hard to read with paragraphs and such but I know you can do it!

[Shizzmoney 0]

When I read this I thought it was an Omaha hand.Gotta call, even though you might not have the best "draw". The only hand I'd SLIGHLY consider folding to would be if I knew my opponent had 8s6s (freerolling), but even in that case, you should be running to get your money in there reguardless just because you will at the least win the antes and the rest of the dead money out there. You play to win the game.

[bobbywithani 0]

I will never understand why good players allow themselves to get into coin flips against marginal or bad players when they know over time they will beat them in hands where they can control the situation more.In my situation I have to call an ALL-In after two other players where I know I am only 33% to win the hand. I feel pretty confident that in time I will have better place and position to knock them both out regardless.Coin flips negate ALL poker skill and make marginal players equal to great players.Just because you are gambling does not mean you always have to gamble.If I put Todd Brunson in 10 tourneys versus 20 different lesser players and present him with my opening scenerio in all of them and he calls everytime he is only going to win about 3 of them.If he folds and plays the games out he will likely win 6 or more of them.

You are 39% to win the hand. Much better than a coin-flip. No amount of arguing will make your fold good.

[turd ferguson 1]

22 is a dog to AKs preflop turd...just thought you might want to know.

Is that right? Click here

also even if its AKo, taking coin flips p/f in a roughly 50/50 situation in a tourney is -ev.

Is that right? Click here

After reading this article, I just want to bring this back up on Turd's behalf that Ian you got owned and have shown it by not responding after Turd posted this

Well said.

[Vick12 0]

I will never understand why good players allow themselves to get into coin flips against marginal or bad players when they know over time they will beat them in hands where they can control the situation more.Because in MTT's u have to win flips...In my situation I have to call an ALL-In after two other players where I know I am only 33% to win the hand. I feel pretty confident that in time I will have better place and position to knock them both out regardless.No...you are closer to 40% and have to pay only 33%...edges are edges.Coin flips negate ALL poker skill and make marginal players equal to great players.No...deciding WHEN to flip seperates good and great playersJust because you are gambling does not mean you always have to gamble.Tourney poker...moreso than cash games...is by definition a gamble.If I put Todd Brunson in 10 tourneys versus 20 different lesser players and present him with my opening scenerio in all of them and he calls everytime he is only going to win about 3 of them.No...Todd GLADLY takes a +EV situation getting 2 to 1 when he is close to 40% every time, ESPECIALLY when he does win 40% and gets TRIPLE the chips to now destroy said donky field.If he folds and plays the games out he will likely win 6 or more of them.He wouldn't be a pro making tons of cash if he passed on your sitution

[Scott3705 0]

How is this thread still going?

[rog 0]

A few comments. Nobody has presented a relevent EV argument. Cash game ev does not apply to tournaments, although it's a reasonable approximation in many cases, so I dont know why people are so hung up on pot odds as the be-all and end-all of tournament decisions. Second, if we assume the reads to be accurate, even if cash gane ev is a reasonable approximation, how can anyone say this is the worst fold ever? OP's edge is only a few percent. Why should he put his whole stack on the line with such a small edge, and very little invested? Bad fold? Yeah, probably. Worst ever? Gimme a break. This is pretty close to the 3-handed equivalent of flipping coins.I make the call here, not so much because I want to put my tourney on the line with a small edge (although to be truthfull, I probably do anyway), but because I dont think there's any way the reads can be that accurate in a case like this. The call is certainly at least the NFD. A set is very likely as well, but the push can be a lot of other things. Even 2-pair can push here to fold straight and flush draws. This is as good a place as any to push with missed overs in a raised pot, since the raise makes it less likely this flop hit anyone. I make the call assuming I'm at WORST a slight favorite, but more likely 50% or so to win.

[Cue 0]

CueYes...you are ahead in your argument, but there are no stack sizes, bets, etc...w/o those factors its impossible to dictate your play.Take a look at the BOLDED portion of your statement...read it closely...keep it branded on your brain...got it...i mean read it once more...OK...ready...NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER PLAY A MTT TO JUST CASH!!!If you are not tryin to WIN when u play MTT's, you should not play them at all. In your argument u speak of bubbling...the bubble should NEVER matter when u make a decision based on equity. If you have a +EV situation on the bubble (actually ESPECIALLY on the bubble) and you don't take it, you are not playing MTT's optimally.Hope that helped!

No I don't agree as I think sometimes the best way to play to win is to play to get into the money and that can mean adjusting your play. You define playing to win in a very narrow way.Many successful MTT adjust their early round play versus their later round play even when given the same hands. Some don't even play the early rounds because they don't want to catch a good hand and lose to a suck out when they cannot get people to fold.I will say this again and that is that when you are 34% to win you are 66% to lose and why any player who felt he was better then both the other players would be the 3rd of 3 to push all his chips in here I don't know.Given time if you are the better player you will beat both these guys.If you go into this same situation with these 2 guys 3 times you only win once and that is only if you are lucky enough to hit your odds.

[krup24 0]

How is this still going on?I just wish that both players woulda went unimproved, I bet you wouldn't have even posted this garbage then.

[Billy 0]

So lets look at what "ahead" really means by examing hands played face up.Hand 1 - 5 playersyou - KQsuitedp2 - 77p3 - 10/9 suitedp4 - 87 suitedp5 - JJ suited

I think you should call the floor on the guy with JJ suited

[Cue 0]

You are 39% to win the hand. Much better than a coin-flip. No amount of arguing will make your fold good.

Which means 61% to lose.If you are heads up do you push all your chips if you are only 40% to win??Flipping a coin gives you much better odds to win.

[....Ian.... 0]

Well said.

again kids, I play on the internet to win money, you play to win internet arguements. GL spending those W's at the nissan dealership.edit: i implied that you guys actually won the arguement. all you guys won was the feeling that turd and bashcum are lovers

[InertGrudge 0]

welcome to the fabulous world that we like to call, "conditioning."

This is brilliant and deserves to be QFT.

[bobbywithani 0]

Which means 61% to lose.If you are heads up do you push all your chips if you are only 40% to win??

You're not heads up, so that argument is unfounded. If it's heads up and you are 60% to win, do you fold?

[Cue 0]

Vick121- Because in MTT's u have to win flips...2 -No...you are closer to 40% and have to pay only 33%...edges are edges.3- No...deciding WHEN to flip seperates good and great players4- Tourney poker...moreso than cash games...is by definition a gamble.5- No...Todd GLADLY takes a +EV situation getting 2 to 1 when he is close to 40% every time, ESPECIALLY when he does win 40% and gets TRIPLE the chips to now destroy said donky field.6- He wouldn't be a pro making tons of cash if he passed on your sitution

Your post is unquotable so the above will have to do.1. - Yes you do but that does not mean you have to enter into all of them.2 - yes and 60% to lose.3 - Indeed and anyone with any common sense knows that if you give Todd Brunson that exact same percentage situation heads up against 10 players who have never even played poker before he SHOULD NOT take it. He will only win 4 times (if he is lucky and hits his odds) against players who have NEVER played poker whereas if he folds and plays it out he wins probably all 10. WHy negate his advantage to a flip?4 - and... to you that means you cannot gamble smarter??? Pick your spots???5- no see 3 above why Todd would be an idiot to take that against donks.6 - you are assuming you are Todd here and speaking for him. I don't htink that is the case.

[sixhands 0]

Folding AA pre flop is even worse. Worst case scenario 4-way you still have 50% equity.Plus, I just have to say it..."Very unique," does not make sense.Grammar Police, your services are needed. Nothing can be "very one of a kind."

absolutely, that's just like saying something is "new and improved"

[turd ferguson 1]

again kids, I play on the internet to win money, you play to win internet arguements. GL spending those W's at the nissan dealership.edit: i implied that you guys actually won the arguement. all you guys won was the feeling that turd and bashcum are lovers

Why do you assume that the two are mutually exclusive?

[Cue 0]

A few comments. Nobody has presented a relevent EV argument. Cash game ev does not apply to tournaments, although it's a reasonable approximation in many cases, so I dont know why people are so hung up on pot odds as the be-all and end-all of tournament decisions. Second, if we assume the reads to be accurate, even if cash gane ev is a reasonable approximation, how can anyone say this is the worst fold ever? OP's edge is only a few percent. Why should he put his whole stack on the line with such a small edge, and very little invested? Bad fold? Yeah, probably. Worst ever? Gimme a break. This is pretty close to the 3-handed equivalent of flipping coins.I make the call here, not so much because I want to put my tourney on the line with a small edge (although to be truthfull, I probably do anyway), but because I dont think there's any way the reads can be that accurate in a case like this. The call is certainly at least the NFD. A set is very likely as well, but the push can be a lot of other things. Even 2-pair can push here to fold straight and flush draws. This is as good a place as any to push with missed overs in a raised pot, since the raise makes it less likely this flop hit anyone. I make the call assuming I'm at WORST a slight favorite, but more likely 50% or so to win.

thx. that is how I felt.I was looking at 1- a worst case scenerio where I folded and the hands were a missed flush draw and top two pair and I cursed myself for the bad read but played on.OR2 -Calling and being right in my read and being out.To me if I had to be wrong here then situation 1 was favourable to 2 as I believed I was one of the better players in the field and could recover from 1. There was no recovery from 2.And for whatever reason I was as sure as I have ever been that it was trips and Nut flush. With both these guys going ALL-In and neither being the preflop raiser I did not put either on a bluff or weak hand. I knew whatever they were drawing to would have to be the winner if it hit.And I did not come into this thread saying "what a great fold" as I know it is a controversial one. It is very read dependant and does not have positive EV if practiced as a rule.

[Chasing50k 0]

Folding AA pre flop is even worse. Worst case scenario 4-way you still have 50% equity.Plus, I just have to say it..."Very unique," does not make sense.Grammar Police, your services are needed. Nothing can be "very one of a kind."

First of all, let me apologize to you, how dare I make you suffer through reading a post with incorrect grammar. It is my sincere hope that I never again insult your intelligence by forcing you to read such an egregious error.Back to the post. If anyone besides me wins the hand I make $0. If either of the short stacks win the hand then I am in 3rd at worst. If the Chipleader wins the hand then I am guaranteed 2nd. Assuming I am up against 2 random hands and QQ from chipleader the odds that each person will win the hand if I call are as follows. Chipleader 15%, Random Hand 1 15%, Random Hand 2 15% me 55% (I know these are rough estimates). So basically 45% of the time I end up with $0. Yet if I do not call the Chipleader will win 50% of the time and the two random hands will win 25% of the time each. So what does all of this mean?Folding-Scenario 1: Chipleader Wins, my value is $150 (50% x $300)Folding-Scenario 2: Random Hand 1 or 2 Wins, my value is $100 (50% x $200)Value of Folding=$250Calling-Scenario 1: I win the hand, my value is $165 (55% x $300)Calling-Scenario 2: I lose the hand, my value is $0 (45% x $0)Value of Calling=$165I am aware that neither scenario takes into account my potential to come back and win first place and for now let's assume that coming back from a 19000-1000 deficit is equally as difficult to come back from as a 16000-4000 deficit. Even if you do not agree with this final assumption the odds of winning first place are still so slim that they will not make up the $85 difference in the two scenarios.Final Point $250>$165.I no longer wish to have a battle of wits with you LJ because you are clearly unarmed.

[....Ian.... 0]

Why do you assume that the two are mutually exclusive?

ahhh my bad, so your focus is on winning internet arguement 12 yr old stylee AND wining money