Pilla 0 Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 I was reciently playing in a tournament that paid the top 4. While we were three handed a hand came up like this.With the blind of 1000 2000 the chip leader by a huge margine raise t0 6000 next the small blind raises for 3900 more. Next, I had 1000 more then the small blind, I confirmed that if both the sb and I were knocked out together I the larger stack would get second. When they said I would I went all in blind making sure that the big stack knew I was moving all in blind. My thinking was that the large stack had me way out stacked and if I went heads up with him I had no chance. By going all in i figured it gave me three to one on my money with a two in three chance that the outcome of the hand would be favorable to me. either I won and tripled up almost comnpletly and would have a stack that was atleast decent enough to go give me a shot heads up or the large stack won and i would finish in second place. the lay out for the money was even diffrence between all the prize money.the turn out for the hand was the one op[tion i didnt want but i still think that i made the right move regardless of the outcome. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 this is a neat problemso payouts are equivalent to 100 - 80 - 60 ( equal difference between 1st, 2nd, 3rd)- I think we can assume SB will have a better hand, since he re-raised all in, and BigStax can afford to play and he was in pos. Yuor hand is random.So let's say that SB has a 50% chance of winning the handAnd you have a 20% chanceButton (BigStack) has a 30%If nothing else, it makes it easier.So:Possible outcomes, in order of best hands:a. SB wins, and Button Beats You: 50% * 60% = 30%b SB wins, and You Beat Button: 50% * 40% = 20%c. You win: 20%d. Button Wins: 30%for a & b, i'm looely assuming that the 2nd place outcomes follow the same relative %'s as the likelhood of winninga. 30% of the time you are out in 3rdb. 20% of the time you have 2000 from the side pot with Button, and are in really bad shape, likely getting 3rd..we'll call it 3rdc. 20% of the time you have like 9900*3 + 2000, and are HU with some room to manuever and outplay..or at least get lucky d. 30% you are out in 2ndso adding together:50% of the time you are going to end up 3rd30% of the time you get 2nd20% of the time you are HU. and w/o knowing total chips, hard to say your chances of 1st here.For sake of continuing my pretend analysis, i'll say 40% of the time you finish 1st in the HU battle.Now..back to mulitplying these %'s by the prize money:50% * (60) + 30% * (80) + 20% * ( 60% * (80) + 40% * (100) ) = 71.6Now, if you fold.Assuming the same winnig chances, Now Button win 30/80 (37.5%) times and SB wins 50/80 (62.5%)And you have 8900 left.w Sb wins: 62.5%x Button wins: 37.5%w. 62.5% of the time SB now has about 20,000 and You have 8900x. 37.5% you are HU with Big Stack, and he has lots more than you.ok..now for some more complete guess work.w. Lets say you can battle back sometimes and finish in this place, theis % of times:1st: 10%2nd: 35%3rd: 55%x. Lets say you can battle back sometimes and finish in this place, theis % of times:1st: 20%2nd: 80%Now putting all this together, for the case to fold:62.5% * ( 10% * (100) + 35% * (80) + 55% * (60) ) +37.5% * ( 20% * (100) + 80% * (80) ) = 75.875So, I show: 71.6 to move all inAnd 75.875 to fold.that was funFeel free to play with the numbers, they are complete guesses!and I ignored the chance BB folds Link to post Share on other sites
iggymcfly 0 Posted May 28, 2006 Share Posted May 28, 2006 I really don't think this spot is worth going in blind. There's a very good chance that the SB has a pair, so if you have two low cards, you should probably toss them. If you have any kind of a real hand at all, then yeah go for it, and try to help knock out the SB, but there's too much play left to just move in with trash here.Also, don't neglect your chances of beating the chip-leader. Even if you're outchipped 10:1, you can always catch some cards and make a comeback. Link to post Share on other sites
Rocketwadster 0 Posted May 29, 2006 Share Posted May 29, 2006 Blinds are very high in relation to your stack size should you fold this, so calling/pushing isn't that bad a play with a mediocre-to-good hand. Folding doesn't hurt you at all here with poor holdings.Not sure there was any benefit to doing it blind there as the big stack was already pot-committed to call there with his raise (change things around to where they are not pot committed, then I could see some possible value there). Link to post Share on other sites
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