Drwnded 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Last night in a NLHE tourney on FT, on three consecutive hands, I was dealt AA, AA, and KK. Assuming the odds of being dealt either AA or KK on any given hand is roughly 1 in 100, then the odds of it occuring 3 times in a row would be 1/100 X 1/100 X 1/100 = 1/1000000, correct? One in a million shot? I guess I shouldn't hold my breath until it happens again.BTW, even more amazingly, I won all three hands. Link to post Share on other sites

umop-apisdn 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Last night in a NLHE tourney on FT, on three consecutive hands, I was dealt AA, AA, and KK. Assuming the odds of being dealt either AA or KK on any given hand is roughly 1 in 100, then the odds of it occuring 3 times in a row would be 1/100 X 1/100 X 1/100 = 1/1000000, correct? One in a million shot? I guess I shouldn't hold my breath until it happens again.BTW, even more amazingly, I won all three hands.1/220 x 1/220 x 1/220 or so... hope you won the tournament. Link to post Share on other sites

MasterLJ 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Last night in a NLHE tourney on FT, on three consecutive hands, I was dealt AA, AA, and KK. Assuming the odds of being dealt either AA or KK on any given hand is roughly 1 in 100, then the odds of it occuring 3 times in a row would be 1/100 X 1/100 X 1/100 = 1/1000000, correct? One in a million shot? I guess I shouldn't hold my breath until it happens again.BTW, even more amazingly, I won all three hands.It's a little more complicated than that.Let's say you're playing hand#13000 (just for ease of argument)During that hand you fold... as you are waiting for the next hand (hand#13001) to be dealt you say "what if I get dealt Aces or kings 3 times in a row in the next 3 hands?" (hands 13001, 13002 and 13002) THEN the chances are 1 in 1 million.But normally we are talking about a series of hands so the real question about the probability is "given a series of N hands, what is the probability that there are 3 back to back hands being dealt of AA or KK in that series?" That computation is much uglier. Link to post Share on other sites

troyomac 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Husband?? What was all that one in a million talk?! Link to post Share on other sites

umop-apisdn 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 It's a little more complicated than that.Let's say you're playing hand#13000 (just for ease of argument)During that hand you fold... as you are waiting for the next hand (hand#13001) to be dealt you say "what if I get dealt Aces or kings 3 times in a row in the next 3 hands?" THEN the chances are 1 in 1 million.But normally we are talking about a series of hands so the real question about the probability is "given a series of N hands, what is the probability that there are 3 back to back hands being dealt of AA or KK in that series?" That computation is much uglier.Not a math whiz, but wouldn't it just be 1/220^3? If you look at poker hands dealt throughout your lifetime, when you hit AA, the odds the next two will be KK or AA are 1/220 X 1/220 (I'm assuming that fraction is right btw). Link to post Share on other sites

Mercury69 3 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Last night in a NLHE tourney on FT, on three consecutive hands, I was dealt AA, AA, and KK. Assuming the odds of being dealt either AA or KK on any given hand is roughly 1 in 100, then the odds of it occuring 3 times in a row would be 1/100 X 1/100 X 1/100 = 1/1000000, correct? One in a million shot? I guess I shouldn't hold my breath until it happens again.BTW, even more amazingly, I won all three hands.I got something like KK, AK, AA, KK in the space of 5 or 6 hands. On the last one (KK), a guy holding AA busted me. Ain't that a laugh? Link to post Share on other sites

TB17 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 I had a similar one in a million shot. Cept I got 9-2 offsuit (same suits all 3 times). Needless to say I won the tournament. Link to post Share on other sites

MasterLJ 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Not a math whiz, but wouldn't it just be 1/220^3? If you look at poker hands dealt throughout your lifetime, when you hit AA, the odds the next two will be KK or AA are 1/220 X 1/220 (I'm assuming that fraction is right btw).No.If you were just dealt AA and wanted to know the probability of being dealt AA or KK in three consecutive hands GIVEN that you were dealt AA on the first hand, it then would be 1/220*1/220 = 1/44000.Otherwise it just becomes the probability of getting back-to-back-to-back AA or KK within a series of N hands. Link to post Share on other sites

loogie 115 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Not a math whiz, but wouldn't it just be 1/220^3? If you look at poker hands dealt throughout your lifetime, when you hit AA, the odds the next two will be KK or AA are 1/220 X 1/220 (I'm assuming that fraction is right btw).No. The odds of being dealt AA is 1 in 220. The odds of being dealt AA or KK is better. I'm not sure exactly what. I bet Al Gore knows. Link to post Share on other sites

umop-apisdn 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 No.If you were just dealt AA and wanted to know the probability of being dealt AA or KK in three consecutive hands GIVEN that you were dealt AA on the first hand, it then would be 1/220*1/220 = 1/44000.Exactly, so 1/44000 x 1/220 (for the original AA or KK) are the odds for getting it 3 times in a row... Forgive me if I'm wrong, it's been years since I had to do any math without calc.exe or excel. Link to post Share on other sites

Drwnded 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Author Share Posted May 12, 2006 Not a math whiz, but wouldn't it just be 1/220^3? If you look at poker hands dealt throughout your lifetime, when you hit AA, the odds the next two will be KK or AA are 1/220 X 1/220 (I'm assuming that fraction is right btw).1/220 is the odds of being dealt any specific PP. Since I said EITHER AA or KK, the odds of being either AA OR KK would be about 1/110^3 or roughly 1 in a million, on any 3 consecutive hands.As MasterLJ mentioned, the odds of this happening on three consecutive hands during a sample of, let's say for argument, 100k consecutive hands, is a much more difficult computation. Any math geeks out there care to give it a shot? Link to post Share on other sites

profxavier9 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 that happened to me once too... im pretty sure i didnt cash in that tourny Link to post Share on other sites

MasterLJ 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Exactly, so 1/44000 x 1/220 (for the original AA or KK) are the odds for getting it 3 times in a row... Forgive me if I'm wrong, it's been years since I had to do any math without calc.exe or excel.No =P.It's hard to explain, but the OP is saying "I got 3 in a row," but really didn't start "observing" until the first time he was dealt Aces.That's why I gave the example with hand#'s in my first reply. Link to post Share on other sites

mtdesmoines 3 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 No. The odds of being dealt AA is 1 in 220. The odds of being dealt AA or KK is better. I'm not sure exactly what. I bet Al Gore knows.LMAO. .... It's just funny EVERY time. Link to post Share on other sites

umop-apisdn 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 As MasterLJ mentioned, the odds of this happening on three consecutive hands during a sample of, let's say for argument, 100k consecutive hands, is a much more difficult computation. Any math geeks out there care to give it a shot?Once, if you're lucky Link to post Share on other sites

Mercury69 3 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 PUT DOWN THE SLIDE RULE AND STEP AWAY FROM THE THREAD!!! Link to post Share on other sites

umop-apisdn 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 PUT DOWN THE SLIDE RULE AND STEP AWAY FROM THE THREAD!!! Math is the devil. Link to post Share on other sites

mclark340 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 The answer is not 1/220 ^ 3...as one person previously pointed out, you are selecting either:1. AA, AA, KK in that order2 Or, AA or KK 3 times in a row (1/110^3)3. Or, AA twice and KK once in any order #1 and #3 require N choose M exponential calculations. Link to post Share on other sites

ForRealDD 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Ring game at Casino AZ last weekend, Dealt Ac-4c , on the button, flop the nut flush, next hand in CO , Ac-4c , flop the nut flush draw, turn Xc ...fish at table act like the bad beat just got hit....it was odd though Link to post Share on other sites

Mercury69 3 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 The answer is not 1/220 ^ 3...as one person previously pointed out, you are selecting either:1. AA, AA, KK in that order2 Or, AA or KK 3 times in a row (1/110^3)3. Or, AA twice and KK once in any order #1 and #3 require N choose M exponential calculations.Now you been told... Link to post Share on other sites

FatBurger 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 2 Or, AA or KK 3 times in a row (1/110^3)Right, since this is what I think is being asked, the odds of it happening are 1 in 1,331,000. Or if you're a member of the "online poker is rigged" crowd, the chances are 1 in 10, and the chances of getting beaten by Q4o is 1 in 1. Link to post Share on other sites

Jeepster80125 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 I thought that each hand is an independent event. Unless you have some number n that equals a set amount of hands, then wouldn't this be impossible to figure out?Not sure though. Link to post Share on other sites

MasterLJ 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Right, since this is what I think is being asked, the odds of it happening are 1 in 1,331,000. Or if you're a member of the "online poker is rigged" crowd, the chances are 1 in 10, and the chances of getting beaten by Q4o is 1 in 1.No, No and No.I feel like I'm speaking Chinese and you aren't Chinese.The only thing that brought the OP's attention to this streak, was the fact that he was dealt aces the first time. Since the OP was dealt aces, the chances that he was dealt aces that time is 100%. From there, the chance of getting a subsequent pair of aces is 1/220. That means, given that the first hand was aces, there is a 1/220 chance that he would be dealt aces again.Since some people mentioned that it's NOT 1/220 to be dealt Aces OR Kings, let's just say for the sake of example we're talking about being dealt aces 3 times in a row, for simplicity, since obviously a bunch of you failed Stats 101.Now since the OP was dealt aces twice in a row, the chance of the third hand being dealt aces is STILL 1/220 because the probability that the OP was dealt aces twice in a row is now 100% since it happened.BUT... since the OP began to "observe," after being dealt the first aces he can ask the question of the probability of being dealt aces in the next two hands. It's 1/220 * 1/220 = 1/44000.So again, I'll use hand#'s (and pretty soon hand puppets if you all don't understand).Hand#1: OP is dealt "72os," while folding OP begins to daydream "What are the odds that I am dealt AA 3 times in a row in the next 3 hands?"Answer: (1/220)^3Hand#2: Hero is dealt AA (1/220)Hand#3: Hero is dealt AA (1/220)Hand#4: Hero is dealt AA (1/220)That's 1 in a million.Scenario 2:Hand#1: Hero is dealt AA and wonders "gee, I wonder what the probability of me being dealt AA three times in this hand plus the next two hands is?" (1/1)Hand#2: Hero is dealt AA (1/220)Hand#3: Hero is dealt AA (1/220)Probability: (1/1) * (1/220) * (1/220) = 1/44000 Link to post Share on other sites

Drwnded 0 Posted May 12, 2006 Author Share Posted May 12, 2006 No, No and No.I feel like I'm speaking Chinese and you aren't Chinese.The only thing that brought the OP's attention to this streak, was the fact that he was dealt aces the first time. Since the OP was dealt aces, the chances that he was dealt aces that time is 100%. From there, the chance of getting a subsequent pair of aces is 1/220. That means, given that the first hand was aces, there is a 1/220 chance that he would be dealt aces again.Since some people mentioned that it's NOT 1/220 to be dealt Aces OR Kings, let's just say for the sake of example we're talking about being dealt aces 3 times in a row, for simplicity, since obviously a bunch of you failed Stats 101.Now since the OP was dealt aces twice in a row, the chance of the third hand being dealt aces is STILL 1/220 because the probability that the OP was dealt aces twice in a row is now 100% since it happened.BUT... since the OP began to "observe," after being dealt the first aces he can ask the question of the probability of being dealt aces in the next two hands. It's 1/220 * 1/220 = 1/44000.So again, I'll use hand#'s (and pretty soon hand puppets if you all don't understand).Hand#1: OP is dealt "72os," while folding OP begins to daydream "What are the odds that I am dealt AA 3 times in a row in the next 3 hands?"Answer: (1/220)^3Hand#2: Hero is dealt AA (1/220)Hand#3: Hero is dealt AA (1/220)Hand#4: Hero is dealt AA (1/220)That's 1 in a million.Scenario 2:Hand#1: Hero is dealt AA and wonders "gee, I wonder what the probability of me being dealt AA three times in this hand plus the next two hands is?" (1/1)Hand#2: Hero is dealt AA (1/220)Hand#3: Hero is dealt AA (1/220)Probability: (1/1) * (1/220) * (1/220) = 1/44000In bold above, AA three times in a row, would be 1/220^3 =1/10.6 million actually. One in a million only goes for aces OR kings 3 times in a row (1/110^3)However I, for one, thoroughly understand your point, although I think the poster you're responding to was mostly kidding. Now, if you can tell me how to calculate what the probability is of being dealt either aces OR kings on three consecutive hands at any time during a sample of 100,000 consecutive hands, I'll be impressed.Not that it matters or anything, but I gotta believe there are math geeks out there who live for this kind of thing. On a Friday night. Alone in their dorm room. Link to post Share on other sites

Actuary 3 Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Probabiltiy of AA or KK: (8*3) / (52*1) = 2/221 = 1 / 110.5not 1/110to be technical.*********AA or KK 3 in a row:0.00000074116203646= 1 / 1,349,232.625Out of 100k hands in a row...hmmm....The trick is in figuring out the number of trials, I don't think it's 99,998.Maybe ~33,333, no ..hmmm Yuo see if you use 99,998 they aren't independent...overlapping sets of hands.But to split them into 33,333 group obviously lowers the chance of 3 in a row, because you are breaking them up.alone in dorm room? Link to post Share on other sites

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