Call All-in Knowing You're Behind?

[Drwnded 0]

Interesting hand from last evening: FT NLHE satellite, 40 players, 20 remain, top 5 win buy-in. Nine handed, blinds at 50-100. Hero's stack is about 3300.UTG raises to 250, Mp1, Mp2, and button all call. Hero is SB with 7h7d. Hero and BB call as well (preflop pot = 1500).Flop: 9c 7c 4cHero(SB) checks, BB moves all in for 3000 more. UTG, MP1, MP2 all fold. Button calls 3000. Hero has about 3000 chips remaining. Your move?

[Ice_W0lf 0]

No question I'm folding here, particularly in a satellite, with 30 BB remaining. No need to call off your chips after an all-in and a call. Fold the hand and pick a better spot to accumulate some chips.

[shpaget 0]

And how do you know you're behind?Can you so certainly rule out Ac9x, or any Ac for that matter?...Kcqx?TT or JJ with a club?Are you that certain you're behind a higher set or a made flush?You're getting 2.5:1 on your money, and unless you're facing 99, you are better than 2.5:1 to win, even if button had KcQc and BB has Ac9h (ie. one of your outs).Call call call.I've folded a set to a 3-flush flop before, but:a. I was raised to the point where I was getting only about 2:1 to call, and the risk of facing another huge bet on the turn (ie. I wasn't all in so I wasn't paying to see two cards, I was only paying to see one) - bad priceb. I KNEW he had a flush

[nomad_monad 0]

No question I'm folding here, particularly in a satellite, with 30 BB remaining. No need to call off your chips after an all-in and a call. Fold the hand and pick a better spot to accumulate some chips.

Is it really that simple?The pot is a whopping 7500 and it costs you 3K to call, offering 2.5-1 to call. Against any hand except 99, we are drawing with at least 2-1 odds. If you win this pot, you will have tripled up and be in great position to make the top 5. Not to mention you'll have knocked out a player and crippled another one.

[Actuary 3]

Cash: Call - easy.Satellite: Fold

[shpaget 0]

Cash: Call - easy.Satellite: Fold

Can you explain this please...I'm lost.To me, there are too many times where you are leading to fold here.Even if you KNOW you're behind you have pot odds to call, though in that case I can see reason to fold, simply being that your edge isn't phenomenal, and with 30xbb you can find a better spot (though I still can't see folding, I'd understand it)I just, based on the information provided, can't conclude you're definitely behind here.

[Drwnded 0]

Can you explain this please...I'm lost.To me, there are too many times where you are leading to fold here.Even if you KNOW you're behind you have pot odds to call, though in that case I can see reason to fold, simply being that your edge isn't phenomenal, and with 30xbb you can find a better spot (though I still can't see folding, I'd understand it)I just, based on the information provided, can't conclude you're definitely behind here.

I agree calling is the right play here b/c of the pot odds, which is why I posted the hand. However, I do think it's a big stretch to think you're not behind to one or both of your opponents.Forgetting about 99, it's hard to believe the BB would push his whole stack in with 5 other players still in the hand with him, with less than the ace of clubs or a made flush. Once he's all in, what hands would the button call off essentially his whole stack with, other than (maybe) the ace of clubs or a made flush, given the pot odds he was presented with at the time. Since I hadn't called yet, he wasn't getting the right odds to draw, and he might've even laid down 99 if he was convinced the BB had a made flush.So if you buy the logic above, one had the ace of clubs and the other a made flush, or else they both had flushes.The point of the hand was, as you said, even knowing you're behind, you had the right odds to call.

[shpaget 0]

I agree calling is the right play here b/c of the pot odds, which is why I posted the hand. However, I do think it's a big stretch to think you're not behind to one or both of your opponents.Forgetting about 99, it's hard to believe the BB would push his whole stack in with 5 other players still in the hand with him, with less than the ace of clubs or a made flush. Once he's all in, what hands would the button call off essentially his whole stack with, other than (maybe) the ace of clubs or a made flush, given the pot odds he was presented with at the time. Since I hadn't called yet, he wasn't getting the right odds to draw, and he might've even laid down 99 if he was convinced the BB had a made flush.So if you buy the logic above, one had the ace of clubs and the other a made flush, or else they both had flushes.The point of the hand was, as you said, even knowing you're behind, you had the right odds to call.

Troo - also, if you're willing to put him on 99 you have to be willing to put him on 44.BB could do this with 97, playing the odds that someone doesn't have a made flush but more likely has a flush draw, and giving them a bad price to call.But yeah, if BB has a flush and button has aflush draw AND one of your outs you still have odds to call - so the fact that you could still be winning doesn't even have to enter it.

[Actuary 3]

I think its vertainly an EV decision based on Pot Odds; but not so sure we want to risk our Satellite life on it, that's all.fwiw, I push.Enough already in pot, I want Maximum FE.

[nomad_monad 0]

I think its vertainly an EV decision based on Pot Odds; but not so sure we want to risk our Satellite life on it, that's all.

Yes, since 5th = 1st in this structure the risk-reward for chip accumulation based on marginal +EV isn't as good. But I guess this depends on your estimation of how likely it is you can outlast 15 other players with a stack that is probably no better than average at this point. If you win this pot, the chances are good that you really wouldn't have to play another one until you get a few spots off the bubble, or possibly no more at all. I think I make this decision based on the skill level of the field and how fast the blinds are increasing.

[blakheart 3]

I say call- you are getting the right price, and if you are behind you still have 7 outs to win with, right? So just on the draw you are priced in, and there is a chance you are ahead already. I understand the desire to sneak into the top 5, but still a lot of poker to go. The chips you get from this pot will propel you towards the final group if you hit. You are going to need a double up anyway, the average chips on the final table will be 6k or so.

[Ice_W0lf 0]

Is it really that simple?The pot is a whopping 7500 and it costs you 3K to call, offering 2.5-1 to call. Against any hand except 99, we are drawing with at least 2-1 odds. If you win this pot, you will have tripled up and be in great position to make the top 5. Not to mention you'll have knocked out a player and crippled another one.

IMO, in a satellite this is that simple of a fold. With 30 BB remaining, there will be plenty of other spots to get your money in. If this were a MTT or a cash game, I would look more at pot odds, but in a tournament where you are just trying to survive and accumulate chips when you can, sometimes you just need to throw pot odds out the window. Obviously the read of the players and the situation would come into play, but with the info provided, I would personally fold and not risk my tourney life on this hand........ any results of the hand to post?

[Drwnded 0]

Results, since you asked: BB had Ac3c, button had KcQc. I called and caught another 4 on the river to fill up and win the pot, after which I did make the top 5.I ran the odds after the flop on cardplayer - I was 35% to win after the flop with two cards to come. At the time when I called, I figured I had 7 pretty solid outs (3 fours, 3 nines, and the case 7) plus maybe half an out for a running pair to fill me up (e.g. 8 on turn, 8 on river etc). Using the rule of four, I estimated 7.5 X 4 = 30% win chance, which still made this a call based on pot odds. So i suppose the 5% difference must be that the chance of a running pair on the turn and river must be worth more than just .5 outs?

[Rocketwadster 0]

I think this predicament is similar to a hand that Harrington had at the end of HOH II, where you have pocket aces in a satellite tournament against 5 other players, and only 4 players get the ticket. This is the scenario in a nutshell (may not be exact). Blinds at 200/400.Player 1 : 4000 chipsPlayer 2 (Button): 4000 chipsPlayer 3 (SB): 4000 chipsHero (BB): 4000 chips ( )Player 5: 1000 chipsPlayer 6: 1000 chipsAll folds to SB, who goes all-in. In theory, you are supposed to fold here. In your scenario, even though you have excelent pot odds, and MAY not be behind right now, I think its a fold.

[shpaget 0]

I think this predicament is similar to a hand that Harrington had at the end of HOH II, where you have pocket aces in a satellite tournament against 5 other players, and only 4 players get the ticket. This is the scenario in a nutshell (may not be exact). Blinds at 200/400.Player 1 : 4000 chipsPlayer 2 (Button): 4000 chipsPlayer 3 (SB): 4000 chipsHero (BB): 4000 chips ( )Player 5: 1000 chipsPlayer 6: 1000 chipsAll folds to SB, who goes all-in. In theory, you are supposed to fold here. In your scenario, even though you have excelent pot odds, and MAY not be behind right now, I think its a fold.

Different situation - here you're close to the bubble, above average (in this case, the leader) with the bubble stacks significantly below average....there's zero value, even with AA, in going against a stack that can eliminate you where percentages say the two bubbles will be blinded to death shortly. Folding is exponentially better than calling and losing, and only marginally worse than calling and winning.In the OP, you're (probably) a below average stack, still several places from the bubble, and in need of, if not now, soon doubling/tripling up to have any chance of getting a seat....folding is only marginally better than calling and losing where calling and winning is exponentially greater than folding.I folded AA in almost this exact situation in a live satellite last summer, with 4 people left, me 2nd in chips, allin from leader, and two shortstacks and 3 seats pay out.

[cubbybri 0]

That's tough one. BB could have virtually anything with no reads. made flush, two pair, a set(I'd think more likely the 4s than 9s), open ended straight draw or and open ended straight flush draw. I like my set, a lot but just with one opponent, I'd be hard pressed in this scenario to think this is an easy call.Now button calls, I can almost guarantee a strong draw out of this player.If you call, you're obligated to play river with button which means everyone sees all the cards.Yuck, someone pulling a straight or a flush seems likely with two cards to come.As much as it is early, you may need to get more chips at some point but I'd assume you are average right now for a chip stack.I'm not running any math but I'm thinking coin flip. Whether it's a normal MTT or a satellite, I steer clear of the coin flips, especially once there is two parties already interested.SO IMO, in the grand scheme of things, I feel letting someone get knocked out vetoes the coin flip situation and would probably fold. You will find better spots even if you don't flop another set the rest of the tourney.I'm glad it worked out for you. I think it just comes down to an virtually even situation and since the goal in a satellite is to place than I would fold.gl

[Rocketwadster 0]

I'm not running any math but I'm thinking coin flip.

I am not disagreeing or even agreeing with anything you have indicated, but just want to clarify that when you have more than two people vying for the pot in an all-in situation, it is usually not a coin-flip. Do you see why???

[shpaget 0]

Results, since you asked: BB had Ac3c, button had KcQc. I called and caught another 4 on the river to fill up and win the pot, after which I did make the top 5.I ran the odds after the flop on cardplayer - I was 35% to win after the flop with two cards to come. At the time when I called, I figured I had 7 pretty solid outs (3 fours, 3 nines, and the case 7) plus maybe half an out for a running pair to fill me up (e.g. 8 on turn, 8 on river etc). Using the rule of four, I estimated 7.5 X 4 = 30% win chance, which still made this a call based on pot odds. So i suppose the 5% difference must be that the chance of a running pair on the turn and river must be worth more than just .5 outs?

In your situation you have 7 outs on the turn and 10 outs on the river....for all intents and purposes you have 8.5 outs twice (not exact, but close enough, much like the rule of 4 is "close enough").You are actually a bit better than 30% to win even if one of the two players had one of your outs (eg. BB had KcQc and button had Ac9h), meaning you have 6 outs on turn, 9 on river...or 7.5 outs twice.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Results, since you asked: BB had Ac3c, button had KcQc. I called and caught another 4 on the river to fill up and win the pot, after which I did make the top 5.I ran the odds after the flop on cardplayer - I was 35% to win after the flop with two cards to come. At the time when I called, I figured I had 7 pretty solid outs (3 fours, 3 nines, and the case 7) plus maybe half an out for a running pair to fill me up (e.g. 8 on turn, 8 on river etc). Using the rule of four, I estimated 7.5 X 4 = 30% win chance, which still made this a call based on pot odds. So i suppose the 5% difference must be that the chance of a running pair on the turn and river must be worth more than just .5 outs?

I didnt even see the results that you posted until now. I think you were "lucky" that both opponents ended up going for the flush. Had only one opponent been going for the nut flush, and the other with two pair/a straight draw, etc., your odds would probably go down a fair amount, wouldn't they? I still think its a fold...

[shpaget 0]

I think another interesting question for this thread would be if the OP had KcQc, and was facing the two all-ins.Unlike having a set you can't improve your hand...you've either won or you haven't.Compared to a set there is a better chance you have the best hand, but if you don't...you're dead.If you do have the best hand there's a good chance you're facing 7 outs twice to a guy with Ac, and 8.5 outs twice to a guy with a set, or 4 outs twice with a guy with two pair.So, with KcQc, IF you are winning, you're likely facing 15-16 outs twice to dodge.If you're not winning, you can't improve (with the exception of runner runner JcTc).So, who calls with KcQc in this spot? How sure do you need to be that you're winning to call?Who calls with Ac9h in this spot? HINT: against a set and KcQc you're 3:1, against a set and KcQs you're 2.6:1.

[shpaget 0]

I didnt even see the results that you posted until now. I think you were "lucky" that both opponents ended up going for the flush. Had only one opponent been going for the nut flush, and the other with two pair/a straight draw, etc., your odds would probably go down a fair amount, wouldn't they? I still think its a fold...

Whether you were against the nut flush and a straight draw, or the nut flush and a straight flush draw, or the nut flush and second nut flush, or the second nut flush and a nut flush drawyou are still between 30-35%....all within your price to call.Your price is bad when you're against:two pair and a made flush (18%)44 and a made flush (23%)99 (5%)Against two pair and a flush draw you are 55%+ to win.Against two flush draws you are 70+% to win.Against two OESD both with flush draws you are 50% to win.I think if you add up all those scenarios and weight them accordingly you are getting the right price - it's just whether or not the situation warrants it, regardless of price.

[nomad_monad 0]

I didnt even see the results that you posted until now. I think you were "lucky" that both opponents ended up going for the flush. Had only one opponent been going for the nut flush, and the other with two pair/a straight draw, etc., your odds would probably go down a fair amount, wouldn't they?

Well if one opponent already had the nut flush, and the other guy was going for a str8 his equity wouldn't change of course - it'd still be 35%. If one opponent was drawing to the nut flush and another guy was drawing to the str8, the OP's equity would be much higher. The scenario that really hurts the OP is if someone else is in there with 2 pair, because it takes away 2 outs minimum, and 4 outs if it's top two. In that case (top two), OP's equity plummets to 19%.

[Rocketwadster 0]

you are still between 30-35%....all within your price to call.

Maybe it is just me, but I certainly don't like putting my tournament life on the line in a "race" situation, let alone when I am only 30 to 35% chance of winning (unless its perhaps down to three of us in a 3-pay SNG or something like that). Pot odds may say to call in a cash game, but it changes completely in a tournament IMO.

[DrZebra 0]

Maybe it is just me, but I certainly don't like putting my tournament life on the line in a "race" situation, let alone when I am only 30 to 35% chance of winning (unless its perhaps down to three of us in a 3-pay SNG or something like that). Pot odds may say to call in a cash game, but it changes completely in a tournament IMO.

You're almost right. If the payout structure was remotely normal, then by making this call everytime you've improved your chances of winning the damn thing one in three times. Since it's a satellite, letting it go is the obvious choice.

[Rocketwadster 0]

You're almost right. If the payout structure was remotely normal, then by making this call everytime you've improved your chances of winning the damn thing one in three times. Since it's a satellite, letting it go is the obvious choice.

I would say that I am absolutely right, in that I have advocated folding from the git-go. As far as winning "the damn thing" one in three times as you have indicated, I don't know about you but that is definately not my objective when playing a satellite, as I intend to win a ticket every time I play. Winning this hand is nice and all, but it does nothing to guarantee a ticket, as there will still be like 18 players left. The reward does not outweight the risk here.