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Well, I don't post too much here but am a constant lurker. But I had an interesting thought and I can't figure out the answer to it and maybe the FCPers can help me out. I was donking in a $1 SNG and my QQ lost all in to 7-8 suited preflop...and while this isn't a bad beat post, it did lead me to thinking....."What hand has the best odds to beat QQ preflop with only undercards?"so i went to cardplayer and did some research and here is what i came up with....QdQc vs JhTh 80.93%-18.70% 0.36% tieQdQc vs Th9h 79.56%-20.09% 0.35% tieQdQc vs 9h8h 78.27%-21.40% 0.33% tieQdQc vs 8h7h 77.53%-22.15% 0.32% tieQdQc vs 7h6h 77.22%-22.47% 0.31% tieQdQc vs 6h5h 76.78%-22.87% 0.35% tieQdQc vs 5h4h 76.73%-22.86% 0.41% tieQdQc vs 4h3h 78.74%-20.83% 0.43% tieQdQc vs 3h2h 80.75%-18.79% 0.46% tienow i know why the % that QQ wins goes down continuously up until 7-6 (8-9-10-J board...) and why 4-3 it goes up (less cards on the lower end for a str8)but my question was this....What creates for a difference in the 6-5 suited vs 5-4 suited percentages??maybe im just not seeing the whole picture....but why such a sudden jump in tie%? and why does the % of wins go down .05 for the QQ vs 54?any help?

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the percentage difference between 65 and 45 according to your chart is o.o1%not much of a difference
i know its not much of a difference....but thats besides the point...im asking what creates that .01% difference, i just cant figure it out and its starting to annoy me B)
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QdQc vs 6h5h 76.78%-22.87% 0.35% tieQdQc vs 5h4h 76.73%-22.86% 0.41% tie
Maybe because if the board comes A-2-3-4-5 (no flush), then 5h4h ties and 6h5h wins, plus there may be an additional tiny percent more boards that will play by themselves with the 5h4h hand. Just a WAG (wild-***-guess) though.Monty
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Maybe because if the board comes A-2-3-4-5 (no flush), then 5h4h ties and 6h5h wins, plus there is a tiny percent more boards that will play by themselves with the 5h4h hand. Just a WAG (wild-***-guess) though.Monty
touche....i feel like an idiot now
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touche....i feel like an idiot now
No no, don't feel like an idiot. I am pretty sure that's the reason, but it's not an obvious thing, and my use of the word "maybe" wasn't condescending, I just wasn't positive that that's the whole story.Monty
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so im still trying to run it all thru my head now....i understand that the 6-5 vs 5-4 on a board of A-2-3-4-5 is why the 6-5 has a .01% bigger chance of winning....but does that fully explain why there is a 0.06% raise in tie% with the 5-4? that is the part still not seeming fully right

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45 vs 56 not being equal is because the low straight effect that tinkers with those percentages. 56 and 67 are the most similar hands against KK, meaning that 56 and 67 both lose on a board of 89TJQ because the other guy had a KK, so they have no higher straight discrepancies(but they have a very minor lower straight discrepancy). Where as with AA, 67s and 89s should have the same percentage chance to win and to tie, with 78 suited having a slightly higher chance to win, due to the straights that he can win with on both directions. Just a guess though.

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Where as with AA, 67s and 89s should have the same percentage chance to win and to tie, with 78 suited having a slightly higher chance to win, due to the straights that he can win with on both directions.
AdAc vs 6h7h 76.81%-22.87% 0.32% tieAdAc vs 7h8h 76.83%-22.87% 0.29% tieAdAc vs 8h9h 77.22%-22.47% 0.30% tiedoesn't quite work out to what you said...i think that is because the 89s cant make a str8 using only the 9....(10-J-Q-K)....the Ace plays....but i guess the question could be posed using this scenario too....why the very subtle discrepencies with the 78s and the 67s?? i have no idea what scenarios would give one the benefit over the other??
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I'm guessing here, but i think its because of the possibility of another overcard to make 2 pair with if the 45 makes 2 pair. A board of 4566x and the queens win
that could be said of the 5-6 too on a board of 5677, could it not?
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It wouldn't matter either way fargo because even with 45 if it were 4522x the queens would be good. Like i said in my edit, i'm drunk and clearly not thinking straight right now

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It wouldn't matter either way fargo because even with 45 if it were 4522x the queens would be good. Like i said in my edit, i'm drunk and clearly not thinking straight right now
lol, s'all good...i wrote my reply while u were editing...this is a great way to pass time when i should be studying for my test in 7 hours B)
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Just a thought but you may be forgetting the possibility of a counterfeited flush, if 5 hearts over the 7 hit the board, it would still be a tie. With one higher heart the chances of that happening change slightly.

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Just a thought but you may be forgetting the possibility of a counterfeited flush, if 5 hearts over the 7 hit the board, it would still be a tie. With one higher heart the chances of that happening change slightly.
thats a solid point...would that be enuff to increase the tie% .06% tho is the question
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thats a solid point...would that be enuff to increase the tie% .06% tho is the question
really not sure about the math that would entail, just showing how the higher cards could make the difference.
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I think the wheel on the board and the high hearts flush on the board probably account for most, if not all of the difference. There may be another tiny element we are missing.Monty
looks like a pretty solid explaination to me...any other enlighteners? or can this post go to rest finally?
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The reason there is a difference in tie percentage between 56 suited and 45 suited is because 56 suited vs QQ can't make a straight that results in a split unless it involves cards in one players hands. 45 suited vs QQ suited can make another straight that results in a chopped pot without involving cards in each players hand. That would be the 6-7-8-9-10. Its the only possible straight that is between both hands that doesn't give either a win. The cards between QQ and 56 are 7-8-9-10-J, and that's an obvious winner for QQ. The chances of the board coming 6-7-8-9-10 account for that extra 0.06% chance of a tie.Alpha

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The reason there is a difference in tie percentage between 56 suited and 45 suited is because 56 suited vs QQ can't make a straight that results in a split unless it involves cards in one players hands. 45 suited vs QQ suited can make another straight that results in a chopped pot without involving cards in each players hand. That would be the 6-7-8-9-10. Its the only possible straight that is between both hands that doesn't give either a win. The cards between QQ and 56 are 7-8-9-10-J, and that's an obvious winner for QQ. The chances of the board coming 6-7-8-9-10 account for that extra 0.06% chance of a tie.Alpha
not true....if you hold 4-5 and the board comes out 6-7-8-9-10, then you chop, YES......BUT if you hold 5-6 and the board comes out 6-7-8-9-10, you STILL chop....liikewise if you hold 6-7 and 7-8 etcetc.....so that fact does not increase the tie% i believe
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not true....if you hold 4-5 and the board comes out 6-7-8-9-10, then you chop, YES......BUT if you hold 5-6 and the board comes out 6-7-8-9-10, you STILL chop....liikewise if you hold 6-7 and 7-8 etcetc.....so that fact does not increase the tie% i believe
If you read my statement appropriately, then you would understand what I was trying to say. I understand that both still chop. My comment is that it is the only possible straight that does not involve cards from both players hands (the straight does not contain a 4,5, or Q. Hence there are more possible cards to make another split pot straight, because there are still 4 of each card still left in the deck to make a 6-7-8-9-10 straight. It is less likely to make that chopped straight if the player holds 56, because there are only 3 6's in the deck to make that straight. This is another component that increases the likelihood of a tie.Alpha
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  • 1 year later...
Well, I don't post too much here but am a constant lurker. But I had an interesting thought and I can't figure out the answer to it and maybe the FCPers can help me out. I was donking in a $1 SNG and my QQ lost all in to 7-8 suited preflop...and while this isn't a bad beat post, it did lead me to thinking....."What hand has the best odds to beat QQ preflop with only undercards?"so i went to cardplayer and did some research and here is what i came up with.......
Brian Alspach (Professor Emeritus in Mathematics and avid poker player and author) did a similar analysis in a two-part article for Canadian Poker Player. The premise (dressed up in a "alien invasion story") asks: what hand has the greatest chance of winning or tying against versus two red aces if you cannot choose the remaining pair of aces?The articles are available as pdf downloads here:Part 1Part 2For those of you who don't want to read the articles, the final answer is given beneath this spoiler (just highlight it to see the answer)

Choose either 56 of spades or 56 of clubs in order to maximize your chances of tying or winning

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