Odds Question

[SlickPetey 0]

Here's a question for you guys because I'm not exactly sure of the answer:What are the odds of having KK or QQ and someone else having AA?The reason I ask is, yes, obviously it happens, but here's my senerio:I record my hands and my opponents hands so I can study them. I only record the hands when there is a showdown. I play on Absolute Poker, in the last 3 days I've had KK or QQ 32 times (in a showdown), of those 32 times, someone has had AA against me 11 times. That to me seems awfully high, but am I wrong or just unlucky right now?

[checkymcfold 0]

well, a rough estimate would be something like 1/221*9 players other than you, which is about 2/49. but it's very slightly larger than that, since we know two cards that the villains don't have are not aces.but yeah, about 1/25-ish.this of course assumes that you have kk or qq "already."

[Jdr999 0]

Here's a question for you guys because I'm not exactly sure of the answer:What are the odds of having KK or QQ and someone else having AA?The reason I ask is, yes, obviously it happens, but here's my senerio:I record my hands and my opponents hands so I can study them. I only record the hands when there is a showdown. I play on Absolute Poker, in the last 3 days I've had KK or QQ 32 times (in a showdown), of those 32 times, someone has had AA against me 11 times. That to me seems awfully high, but am I wrong or just unlucky right now?

That's the key words right there. No way you fold Kings on an all undercards flop without a 3-card straight or flush.As for you question, I have no idea.

[GWCGWC 83]

well, a rough estimate would be something like 1/221*9 players other than you, which is about 2/49. but it's very slightly larger than that, since we know two cards that the villains don't have are not aces.but yeah, about 1/25-ish.this of course assumes that you have kk or qq "already."

[Wandigo 1]

I was in a live tournament two weeks ago with a situation such as this. Final table, I'm delt KK, button has AA and big blind has QQ. Aces held.VERY next hand.. same exact thing, with three other people, aces held again.What about the odds of something like this, where it happens in two consecutive hands?

[SlickPetey 0]

"That's the key words right there. No way you fold Kings on an all undercards flop without a 3-card straight or flush.As for you question, I have no idea."Granted yes, I only recorded in showdowns simply because there's no way of me knowing if my opponent actually held AA if I layed down KK or QQ

[Blue58 0]

I was in a live tournament two weeks ago with a situation such as this. Final table, I'm delt KK, button has AA and big blind has QQ. Aces held.VERY next hand.. same exact thing, with three other people, aces held again.What about the odds of something like this, where it happens in two consecutive hands?

I've been a poker dealer for 5 years now, and as a dealer, I've seen this happen exactly 1 time in 5 years. Yet I've seen it happen online several times, maybe 8-10 times and I do not play online very often. As a dealer, there is absolutley no way you can convince me that something just isn't right about online poker. Not a chance. Now, don't get me wrong, im not saying the sites are neccesarily rigged or anything, but something just isn't right. Maybe colluding player bots, bots that work for the sites, colluding players on mass scale, etc, etc. I don't know. Something just "isn't right". I see things where a guy may have something like a 14% VPIP%, and he decides out of the blue that its all of the sudden a good idea to cold-call a raise from MP with 4-9o after not playing a hand for 3 rounds. Then proceeds to flop 2 pair and boat up on the river. Stuff like that raises an eyebrow; at least to me. I choose not to play online very often, and when I do, its usually just low buyin tournaments, but sometimes I play some limit ring. Online, I can flop the nuts and I have no confidence I am going to win the hand. I ram and jam (In limit holdem, in a multi-way hand, I think its more deceptive to make a continuation bet after you've raised pre-flop and then flop the nuts) only to lose to some perfect-perfect miracle combo. I don't even flinch anymore. I remember one SnG session not long ago where I flopped the top set in 3 tournies in a row, and lost each time. 2 to runner-runner flushes (we got it all in on the flop both times), and the other to quads when I flopped set over set and he spiked quads on the river. One of those I can take..(Hey its part of poker right?) but not 3 in a row. Obviously its a small sample size from a variance point of view. But god.. you sure do get sick of saying "its just variance" after awhile. Aren't I supposed to win once in a while when I flop the nuts? Instead I feel like this .... .... As Family guy once said "How bout if I just give you my $50, you kick me in the nuts, and we call it a day?"Flame me to pieces for it, but something just isn't quite right with online poker. I've been dealing for 5 years, and have seen MANY more live hands then online hands, and yet I've seen 10x more action-packed miracle craziness in the few thousand online hands that I've seen then the 5 years of hands I've seen live. Obviously I see sick beats at work all the time, but Im talking on a per 100 hand basis here. And live games are MUCH looser then internet cash games!My solution, at least for myself, is to just stay away from it. I play low limit every once in a great while just for fun (although I play it seriously and give it my A game). While I've done very well in tournaments, Im left scratching my head everytime I leave an online cash game. I leave thinking "Boy, if it wasn't for those 2 runner-runner gutshots and that rivered set when that guy called down 3 bets cold on every street with his pocket 3's with 4 overcards and spiked a 3 on the river against my top 2 on the flop, I would have shown a nice profit" E-v-e-r-y Time.I know. I know. You want people doing that, they are supposed to lose all the money back in the long run. I guess that means from a variance standpoint, I should win the next 9,000 or so situations like that in a row For what its worth, thats my .02.. and... maybe thats all its worth. But I've seen what I've seen, and I've seen alot of poker in my life.

[mase_gotsem 0]

Wow BLUE i couldnt say it any better im glad it aint just me and my aces never hold up unless im short stacked and theres a side pot ...

[FullMontyM1 0]

I was in a live tournament two weeks ago with a situation such as this. Final table, I'm delt KK, button has AA and big blind has QQ. Aces held.VERY next hand.. same exact thing, with three other people, aces held again.What about the odds of something like this, where it happens in two consecutive hands?

If we start with the assumption that someone is looking at AA in their hand, from that point on the odds for things to proceed as they did in your case would be:Around 170,000,000 to 1I think... but then again I am tired.

[nutzbuster 7]

quote "What are the odds of having KK or QQ and someone else having AA?"Low.Rasie 5x pre flop and find out.