***official Boston Red Sox Thread***

[timwakefield 68]

Sox lose again, our only run coming on an rbi double by John Lackey. He nearly hit it out.

[timwakefield 68]

Holy shit the Sox won last night! I stopped checking the score in the 15th and went to bed with the score still, incredibly, 0-0. We missed some absolutely golden opportunities (bases loaded, no outs in about the 12th), and I just didn't like the way it was looking. But we won! It was apparently the longest game in Rays history by time, at 5:44, which is pretty impressive considering there was only 1 run scored the entire game and only 3 total hits through the first 9 innings. Seems like it shoulda been a much quicker game, even at 16 innings. I guess there were a million pitching changes...

[timwakefield 68]

Won 1-0 in 16 innings last night, and 15-10 in 9 innings tonight. Yay! Crawford back in the lineup, got 2 hits too.

[HollywoodAFD 0]

Sox are looking pretty dang good..... can't wait to play them in the playoffs.I almost feel sorry for Tampa Bay..... 6 over and 8 back?

[mrdannyg 274]

So what's happening with Reddick? Is he really going to take over from Drew full-time, or we still looking at a job share?Lavarnaway is putting up some crazy stats, but he still can't catch worth shit, right?

[timwakefield 68]

So what's happening with Reddick? Is he really going to take over from Drew full-time, or we still looking at a job share?Lavarnaway is putting up some crazy stats, but he still can't catch worth shit, right?

I don't think they're gonna use Lavarnway this year. Probably when the rosters expand in September he'll come up and get a few at-bats, but yeah, Salty and Varitek are doing okay offensively (12 combined hr, hitting .241 and .247 respectively), and are pretty great defensively. I'm not sure what Francona's gonna do with Drew and Reddick. Reddick has been playing out of his skull, including defensively, while Drew has an OPS of .630 (Reddick's OPS is 1.056, although in just 75 ABs). Francona always mixes and matches and there are always short or long injuries, but at this point I think Reddick will be getting more at-bats than Drew, at least until Reddick comes back down to earth. One problem is that they're both lefties, so there's no platooning to be had. It's also possible that we'll pull a major trade in the next two weeks, either for a SS or a RF (Reyes or Beltran, one can dream?). There was a story in the Globe the other day about how Jose Reyes could be obtainable, suggesting that we throw basically all our prospects at the Mets (including major SS prospect Jose Iglesias). But that could of course backfire if we aren't able to sign Reyes to a long-term deal and we don't win the WS with him this season. Next two weeks up til the deadline should be interesting all around the league.

[mrdannyg 274]

I don't think they're gonna use Lavarnway this year. Probably when the rosters expand in September he'll come up and get a few at-bats, but yeah, Salty and Varitek are doing okay offensively (12 combined hr, hitting .241 and .247 respectively), and are pretty great defensively. I'm not sure what Francona's gonna do with Drew and Reddick. Reddick has been playing out of his skull, including defensively, while Drew has an OPS of .630 (Reddick's OPS is 1.056, although in just 75 ABs). Francona always mixes and matches and there are always short or long injuries, but at this point I think Reddick will be getting more at-bats than Drew, at least until Reddick comes back down to earth. One problem is that they're both lefties, so there's no platooning to be had. It's also possible that we'll pull a major trade in the next two weeks, either for a SS or a RF (Reyes or Beltran, one can dream?). There was a story in the Globe the other day about how Jose Reyes could be obtainable, suggesting that we throw basically all our prospects at the Mets (including major SS prospect Jose Iglesias). But that could of course backfire if we aren't able to sign Reyes to a long-term deal and we don't win the WS with him this season. Next two weeks up til the deadline should be interesting all around the league.

Thanks for the tips! Dubey must've read this, because he picked up Reddick in our fantasy league 20 minutes ago.I could see the Red Sox offering Iglesias and someone - maybe even Lavarnaway for Reyes. Mets could certainly use an SS, and Lavarnaway could play 1B for them and backup Thole or something. With Middlebrooks and Cecchini having good years, and Wright hurtin', I could even see one of them paired with Iglesias, with Wright moving to 1B if necessary to save his body.

[Skeleton Jelly 2]

There was a story in the Globe the other day about how Jose Reyes could be obtainable, suggesting that we throw basically all our prospects at the Mets (including major SS prospect Jose Iglesias).

I wouldn't do that. Reyes is 28 and most players' primes are in the 27-29 range (although I've seen some people (stats) suggest that it's even younger than that). Plus he's getting that contract year bump and he's never been this good before. You're basically buying at the absolute peak price and I doubt you'll ever get the production to match what you pay.

[mrdannyg 274]

I wouldn't do that. Reyes is 28 and most players' primes are in the 27-29 range (although I've seen some people (stats) suggest that it's even younger than that). Plus he's getting that contract year bump and he's never been this good before. You're basically buying at the absolute peak price and I doubt you'll ever get the production to match what you pay.

This is all true. Then again, Boston is a team who's wins are very near the top of the marginal curve. And wins are typically worth $4M-$5M each, depending on who you read. So for Boston, a win is worth at least $5M/year, and that is probably conservative.Most star players are significantly underpaid by the WAR measures. Reyes' war for each season since 2005 (his first full season)2005 - 2.3 (161 games)2006 - 6.1 (153 games)2007 - 5.8 (160 games)2008 - 6.4 (159 games)2009 - 0.8 (36 games)2010 - 2.8 (133 games)2011 - 5.3 (80 games)He's never been this good, but he really only has to be better than he was in 2010 to be worth more than $20M/year. And it probably doesn't take much more than $20M/year to sign him.Adding to all this, is that Boston signing him could mean he doesn't sign with the Yankees, which puts the value through the roof. If I'm Boston, and my owner agrees that he'll be willing to shell out $15-$25M/year for a multi-year extension, and I can grab him for 'only' Iglesias and other prospects that are blocked by people like Youkilis, Pedroia, Gonzalez and Crawford, then I jump on that.The only issue they'll have is where to bat people. Seriously - Ellsbury, Crawford, Reyes, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ortiz. What...do you make Ortiz bat 7th? Who bats 6th? Nice problem to have I guess.

[Skeleton Jelly 2]

But Boston is going to make the playoffs and probably do so fairly comfortably. They don't need the extra win from Reyes. I guess it depends on how Boston feels about this Iglesias kid (who I know nothing about). If he is close to major league ready and Boston feels he has all-star potential, I don't think the short-term upgrade is worth it. Of course, if Boston doesn't think as highly of him as other teams do, might as well trade him while his value is high.I would like to see NY sign Reyes just to see the Jeter situation play out. Then I would want to see him fail to ensure even more Jeter drama. I like Jeter drama. I also like Jeter, so that's kind of weird of me.

[timwakefield 68]

I guess it depends on how Boston feels about this Iglesias kid (who I know nothing about). If he is close to major league ready and Boston feels he has all-star potential, I don't think the short-term upgrade is worth it.

He can pick it like a motherfucker at short and he's fast as hell, but he currently has a .519 OPS at AAA in 229 at-bats. It's his first season at AAA though, and he's only 21. So as much as the Sox want him on the team right now to solidify the defense, he seriously needs to improve his hitting. He's already had his first awesome, exciting MLB moment, but at this point he's still miles away from being in a major league lineup. Defensively though, I want him on the team today. I don't think we'll trade him unless it's in a deal for a major league SS, or we get another SS in a different deal. The Mets might want him though in a deal for Beltran, with Reyes potentially leaving after this season (or sooner).

[mrdannyg 274]

But Boston is going to make the playoffs and probably do so fairly comfortably. They don't need the extra win from Reyes. I guess it depends on how Boston feels about this Iglesias kid (who I know nothing about). If he is close to major league ready and Boston feels he has all-star potential, I don't think the short-term upgrade is worth it. Of course, if Boston doesn't think as highly of him as other teams do, might as well trade him while his value is high.I would like to see NY sign Reyes just to see the Jeter situation play out. Then I would want to see him fail to ensure even more Jeter drama. I like Jeter drama. I also like Jeter, so that's kind of weird of me.

Like Tim said, Iglesias is one of, if not the best defensive shortstops in the world right now. He is an awful hitter. He'll probably be never better than a #9 hitter, but that's ok for a plus plus defensive SS.If Reyes is just a rental, then I'm not sure its worth it. But if they're willing to make him a big free agent deal, then having him earlier will help. Not sure why, but it often seems to in these instances. Plus, a few months playing with Pedroia, Gonzalez and Youkilis will probably make anyone want to join that team long-term.Even if it is just a rental, lets not discount the value of a win or two to a potential World Series winning team. The Red Sox are the favourites, but they're not THAT much better than the Rangers, Yankees or Phillies. What is the extra revenue they get from beating the Yankees to get to the WS? From winning the WS? Tens of millions. For a team like the Red Sox, the marginal value of even a one-year rental of Reyes is simply more than it is to anyone else. Combine that with the fact that they have a very tradeable SS prospect, and it looks like a smart play.

[Skeleton Jelly 2]

Even if it is just a rental, lets not discount the value of a win or two to a potential World Series winning team. The Red Sox are the favourites, but they're not THAT much better than the Rangers, Yankees or Phillies.

That's an interesting question. What is the value of a win (obviously a win meaning a player who is one win better than the one he is replacing) to a contender once in the playoffs? I suppose it could be argued that any increase in winning probability makes it a worthwhile deal because banners fly forever and all that jazz, but I'd be curious how much of a difference it makes. Does anybody here post on the fangraphs forum? Is that something someone there might be able to answer?

[mrdannyg 274]

That's an interesting question. What is the value of a win (obviously a win meaning a player who is one win better than the one he is replacing) to a contender once in the playoffs? I suppose it could be argued that any increase in winning probability makes it a worthwhile deal because banners fly forever and all that jazz, but I'd be curious how much of a difference it makes. Does anybody here post on the fangraphs forum? Is that something someone there might be able to answer?

I don't post in fangraphs, but I have to imagine it is pretty significant. Now, Reyes won't be worth a full win in a playoff series, but even the pro-rated fractional win he's worth has to be valuable. I mean, what is the value to the Boston franchise if they win the AL, compared to losing. Not just in ticket revenue, but all the other jazz. Must be 10s of millions. Divide that by Reyes' fractional and you're still looking good.

[timwakefield 68]

Ellsbury hit 2 more home runs today, giving him 15 on the year. His previous season high total was 9. So if Crawford starts playing more like Carl Crawford, or [knock on wood] if we somehow land Reyes, they could lead off and Ellsbury could easily become our #3 hitter, bumping everybody else down one spot. He has 198 total bases already, and his all-time season best is 259 (and that season he had 600+ ABs, so it's not like he's just getting more opportunities this year). I think a trade for Reyes is very unlikely, and I agree that it might be too much of a gamble unless of course we came to an agreement with him and his agent before the trade that he'd love to sign a long-term deal instead of becoming a free agent and we agree basically on what the contract would be. That was what happened with the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but that of course wasn't mid-season, so they had the whole off-season to work out the kinks of the contract.

[mrdannyg 274]

Ellsbury hit 2 more home runs today, giving him 15 on the year. His previous season high total was 9. So if Crawford starts playing more like Carl Crawford, or [knock on wood] if we somehow land Reyes, they could lead off and Ellsbury could easily become our #3 hitter, bumping everybody else down one spot. He has 198 total bases already, and his all-time season best is 259 (and that season he had 600+ ABs, so it's not like he's just getting more opportunities this year). I think a trade for Reyes is very unlikely, and I agree that it might be too much of a gamble unless of course we came to an agreement with him and his agent before the trade that he'd love to sign a long-term deal instead of becoming a free agent and we agree basically on what the contract would be. That was what happened with the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but that of course wasn't mid-season, so they had the whole off-season to work out the kinks of the contract.

Do you really want Ellsbury hitting 3rd though? He's the worst hitter of that group, but with his speed, you don't really want him hitting 6th. If I'm making that lineup, I have Reyes/Gonzalez/Youkilis/Ellsbury/Crawford/Pedroia. Because I can.

[Dubey 1,035]

It's scary when you can name a group of 5 hitters on the same team, and say that Jacoby Ellsbury (arguably a top 20 player), is the worst of the group.

[timwakefield 68]

Do you really want Ellsbury hitting 3rd though? He's the worst hitter of that group, but with his speed, you don't really want him hitting 6th. If I'm making that lineup, I have Reyes/Gonzalez/Youkilis/Ellsbury/Crawford/Pedroia. Because I can.

You have Gonzalez hitting 2nd? Ellsbury is your cleanup hitter??? Are you sure you're not high?! I'd goReyesPedroiaEllsburyGonzoYoukPapiCrawfordDrew/ReddickSalty/TekOh, and how about that Pedroia?! He got off to a really slow start, and now he's up to .293 and is leading the team in walks for a .398 OBP.

[digitalmonkey 929]

It's scary when you can name a group of 5 hitters on the same team, and say that Jacoby Ellsbury (arguably a top 20 player), is the worst of the group.

One of the benefits of a $161+ million payroll, I guess.

[timwakefield 68]

One of the benefits of a $161+ million payroll, I guess.

Fo' shizzle. Hey, the owners are making gazillions, ticket prices are offensively high, beer costs about $19 each, I feel like we deserve an even higher payroll. Goddam Phillies are at $173m. I think we should try to outdo them in that category.

[mrdannyg 274]

You have Gonzalez hitting 2nd? Ellsbury is your cleanup hitter??? Are you sure you're not high?! I'd goReyesPedroiaEllsburyGonzoYoukPapiCrawfordDrew/ReddickSalty/TekOh, and how about that Pedroia?! He got off to a really slow start, and now he's up to .293 and is leading the team in walks for a .398 OBP.

Come on, optimal lineup construction! Gonzalez is the better hitter, get him more ABs by putting him higher in the order. Ellsbury has enough speed that I'd typically put him 1st even though he is the worst hitter, but Reyes has plenty too. I'd be very tempted to put Ellsbury 6th! In fact, with Ortiz and Reddick in the lineup, I probably would...

[Skeleton Jelly 2]

Of course, where you hit someone in the lineup doesn't actually make a difference though, right?

[mrdannyg 274]

Of course, where you hit someone in the lineup doesn't actually make a difference though, right?

Heh, I know. But neither does collecting pennies, and most of us still do that right? Every little bit helps!**I know, every little bit does not actually help. More accurately, it helps very little, so who cares? Optimal lineup construction is the same as collecting pennies. I actually like the analogy.

[timwakefield 68]

Swept the Mariners and we're 3 games up on the Yanks! Wake snagged his 199th career win, despite giving up 7 earned runs...Yay for having an incredible offense! Reddick is still killing it, Gonzo's mini-slump is seemingly over, Jacoby's up to .320, and Pedroia's up to .299. And John Lackey pitched a gem on Friday (lowering his ERA to 6.28 (confused face)). Once again, everything's coming up Milhouse.Oh, and Crawford is 9 for 24 since coming off the DL last week, and 7 for his last 15.And as for Reddick vs Drew, Reddick has been our RF the last 4 games.

[timwakefield 68]

And re: Lavarnway, I wish it had more to say about his defense, but it's still interesting:

PAWTUCKET, R.I. - When Ryan Lavarnway was promoted to Triple A Pawtucket June 13, his objective was to become a more well-rounded player, which first meant becoming a better catcher.“I’ve been really happy with the way I’ve been catching the ball,’’ Lavarnway said this week. “I’ve had a lot of good feedback from Arnie [beyeler, the PawSox manager] and the pitching staff. I’ve been working with Rich [sauveur, the pitching coach] on game call, and that’s been coming along pretty good.’’As for his hitting? Well, the 23-year-old from Woodland Hills, Calif., could not be more thrilled. He was hitting over .500 in the 10 games leading up to Wednesday afternoon’s 2-1 victory over Lehigh Valley at McCoy Stadium.“I feel good swinging the bat,’’ said Lavarnway, who went deep in last night’s series finale against the IronPigs and is hitting .377 with 12 doubles, 12 home runs, and 33 RBIs. “For me, it’s all been about swinging at the right pitches, and I’ve been swinging at some good pitches lately.’’Including one in Tuesday night’s 7-2 victory over Lehigh Valley that he hit some 426 feet, hitting the roof of the center-field concession stand.“Yeah, that felt good,’’ Lavarnway said, recalling the highlight of his 2-for-3 effort that included three RBIs and three runs.He has a system-high 26 homers this season, after he hit 14 and drove in 38 runs in 55 games with Double A Portland.Asked if Lavarnway made any adjustments to Triple A pitching, Beyeler joked, “It doesn’t look like it. From the way he’s hit the ball, it looks like he’s playing tee ball out there. You laugh about it, but it’s been pretty impressive.’’Before going 0 for 4 with a strikeout Wednesday, Lavarnway had hit safely in nine of 10 games (20 for 38) with five doubles, six homers, 11 runs, and 13 RBIs. It was good for an off-the-charts OPS of 1.713 (.581 on-base and 1.132 slugging percentage).“He got off to a real good start last year in Double A when he came up [from High-A Salem],’’ said Beyeler, who managed Lavarnway last season in Portland. “But he ran into some pitching that he had to make an adjustment, and came back strong and finished strong.’’Lavarnway earned Co-Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Year honors last year, a season in which he hit .288 with 22 home runs and 102 RBIs. He looks like a candidate for the honor this season with more than 20 homers for the third straight year.Ranked by Baseball America as Boston’s No. 1 catching prospect at the beginning of the season, the publication recently named Lavarnway to its minor league All-Surprise Team.“Last year, I got in that little rut [at Portland] and was chasing curveballs in the dirt with two strikes and taking fastballs. That’s when I really get myself into trouble,’’ he said. “The biggest thing for me is not to think too much and get passive, but to stay aggressive and when I stay aggressive that’s when I recognize pitches better. And that’s how I ultimately hit them better.’’With the July 31 trade deadline approaching, could Lavarnway be a possible chip in a deal?“It’s not my decision to decide where it leads to,’’ he said. “People who make those decisions, it’s their job for a reason, because they’re good at it. My job is to play baseball, and that’s what I’m doing and I’m enjoying it.’’So, too, are the PawSox.“With his approach and how he goes about it, he’s going to be a good hitter,’’ Beyeler said. “He’s going to be a dangerous out at the plate. He’s got a good idea of the strike zone and he doesn’t chase a lot. He’s always going to make the good adjustment.’’

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/reds...y_at_pawtucket/