Math Geniuses? Help Me Out

[Bubba83 0]

Alright, here's the deal, I was playing Black Mariah with my pals. 4-handed game... If you're unfamiliar, Black Mariah is 7 stud hi, but the highest spade in the hole splits half the pot.A hand basically came up where my pal Landon had rolled up Aces, with the ace of spades in the hole.I'm not quite sure how to calculate the odds of that.But I had the King of Spades in the hole to start, and my friend Shawn had the Queen of spades in the hole to start, as well. Basically we know this hand will never ever occur again... We just want to know how off the wall it was. I mean, like, it has to be a ridiculous chance of occuring. If anyone can figure this out I'd really appreciate it. I came up with a number that I think must be wrong, it's too unlikely, but I'll show the math for that and you guys can correct it.First, the probability of being dealt rolled up aces with the ace of spades in the hole.Up card has to be one of the 3 aces that isn't a spade, so our odds of that is 3 in 52. First down card has to be the ace of spades which is 1 in 51. The second down card can be either of the 2 remaining aces, or 2 in 50.If we multiply these together we get 6/132,600 or 1/22,100So the odds for being dealt rolled up aces with the ace of spades in the hole is 1 in 22,100 hands. Is my math right there?Then we need to figure out the chances of me having the king of spades in the hole. The odds of that are something like 1 in 51 twice, right? So 2/51?And my friend would have the same odds getting dealt the queen, So we can multiply 1/22,100 * 2/51 * 2/51 to get 1/14,370,525Odds of this happening are 1 in 14,370,525 hands? Surely that number can't be right? Help!

[dingas 0]

I'm not a math genius, but your math looks generally okay to me.The huge number you got isn't that far-fetched because the chance of someone getting rolled aces is so unlikely in the first place.

[smrphf 0]

i'm really tired so i could be wrong, but i think you overestimated because you got the exact odds for a certain player having a specific card. for instance, you did not account for 3 players one having the king and 2 players one having the queen since it is 4 handed. i hope i read the thread right.

[Bubba83 0]

You're right, but I don't know how to adjust my math to accomodate that. Yes, I want to know the odds of someone having rolled up aces, someone else having the Ks, and someone else having the Qs. Not specifically Landon having the rolled up aces, me having the Ks, and Shawn having the Qs.

[ZeeJustin 0]

Hi.

[smrphf 0]

1/52 x (3x 51) x (2x50) x (6/49) x (4/48)chances of rolled aces 1 being ace of spades(1/52 x (3x 51) x (2x50) times chances 1 of the 3 remaining players having the king of spades in the hole(6/49)times chances 1 of the 2 remaining players having the queen of spades in the hole(4/48)144/3118752001/2165800even this number seems big to me maybe i'm more tired than i think.ironically i'm watching the x-files where there is a 5 card draw game and one guy draws 5 and gets the royal flush since we are talking math

[Abbaddabba 0]

If you look for what the odds are for very specific events to occur, it will always seem astronomically improbable. What are the odds of being dealt 6/9off while your opponent has AK of spades, while the third guy has pocket Q6 of hearts? Even more improbable. But who cares?

[mobius481 0]

1/52 x (3x 51) x (2x50) x (6/49) x (4/48)chances of rolled aces 1 being ace of spades(1/52 x (3x 51) x (2x50) times chances 1 of the 3 remaining players having the king of spades in the hole(6/49)times chances 1 of the 2 remaining players having the queen of spades in the hole(4/48)144/3118752001/2165800even this number seems big to me maybe i'm more tired than i think.ironically i'm watching the x-files where there is a 5 card draw game and one guy draws 5 and gets the royal flush since we are talking math

Generally correct but I think you missed a couple of things. The chances of rolled up aces are 4/52 x 3/51 x 2/50. The chance of the ace of spade being in the hole when you have rolled up aces is 1/2. Here's why:The chances of the spade being in the hole using this formula would be half the time (2/3rd of the time when you get the ace of spades as one of the three and 0% of the time when the ace of spades is not in there.Final number would then be 4/52 x 3/51 x 2/50 x 1/2 x 6/49 x 4/48.Assuming the rest of your numbers are correct (I think they are)This comes to 1/1,082,900

[Pl 0]

Dunno if its right. But I think this is in the right neighborhood.3 card combos: 52*51*50/(3*2*1)AA(A) combos with As: 3As hidden: 2/3Ksx(x) combos where x not Qs nor one of the 3 Aces: 47*46Qsx(x) combos where x not denoted above : 45*44Combos of 3 players: 63*2/3*6*47*46*45*44 / (52*51*50/(3*2*1))^3 ~ 1 / 42000

[shaggybudd 0]

<-- Landon "I win!"

[Mercury69 3]

BOOM! HEADSHOT!

[....Ian.... 0]

i am a math genius, but its monday morning, and i dont care (sorry)

[mobius481 0]

Dunno if its right. But I think this is in the right neighborhood.3 card combos: 52*51*50/(3*2*1)AA(A) combos with As: 3As hidden: 2/3Ksx(x) combos where x not Qs nor one of the 3 Aces: 47*46Qsx(x) combos where x not denoted above : 45*44Combos of 3 players: 63*2/3*6*47*46*45*44 / (52*51*50/(3*2*1))^3 ~ 1 / 42000

Your math on the rolled up aces with spade down is definitely wrong unless I'm misunderstanding. I don't understand the the math on your king and queen. That is the part I'm shaky on. I'm pretty confident in my math on the rolled up aces.The math on getting rolled up aces is definitely 4/52 x 3/51 x 2/50. I don't think anyone will argue with that. If you figure that 3/4 times there is the ace of spades and of those times it is down 2/3 of the time, then you get 6/12 or 1/2. I don't think anyone will argue this. That makes the odds of rolled up aces with the spade down 1/11,050. I will defer on calculating the king and queen to someone else.

[FIREonICE 0]

BOOM! HEADSHOT!

http://boommutha****a.ytmnd.com/ http://boxinghs.ytmnd.com/

[Pl 0]

Your math on the rolled up aces with spade down is definitely wrong unless I'm misunderstanding. I don't understand the the math on your king and queen. That is the part I'm shaky on. I'm pretty confident in my math on the rolled up aces.The math on getting rolled up aces is definitely 4/52 x 3/51 x 2/50. I don't think anyone will argue with that. If you figure that 3/4 times there is the ace of spades and of those times it is down 2/3 of the time, then you get 6/12 or 1/2. I don't think anyone will argue this. That makes the odds of rolled up aces with the spade down 1/11,050. I will defer on calculating the king and queen to someone else.

Believe what you want, but there is no diffrence between 3 * (2/3) / (52*51*50/6) and 1/11,050. Explaination: 3 ways to chose 2 aces out of 3. 2/3rds have the As hidden. Total number of 3 card hands 52*51*50/6.Multiply my first figure with 4/9ths and you get the chance of the high spades being hidden.

[blakheart 3]

Black Mariah= great home poker gameI imagine Landon stuck ou gus for a small fortune?

[Bubba83 0]

Black Mariah= great home poker gameI imagine Landon stuck ou gus for a small fortune?

Well it was limit and Shawn and I didn't have any shot at the high really. We both were just overcalling Landon's bets hoping to build the pot for our half of the pot with the spade. Landon bets the river, we both call, and he says "I win." as he turns up aces full with the ace of spades in the hole. His board was ragged too, it's a good thing I didn't have a chance at the high.Landon has a reputation for being the biggest luckbox ever in our home games, and this hand just continued that tradition.Thanks for all the math work you guys are doing here, I am confident the odds of rolled up aces with the ace of spades in the hole are indeed 1 in 11,050 hands. Now how can we figure out the odds of the other spades in the hole?

[phlegm 6]

Hi.

Well i guess that answers the question as to weather or not its the real zee.

[CodyHartman 0]

Ive had 3 ppl get the A, K, and Q before in the hole. It was a 5 handed game though. Small diff.