TheCinciKid 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 $22 Buy-in Party Tournament; we've just hit the money and there are somewhere around 75 players left. First is a bit over $3k and 75th is about $40. Average should be around 30k.Blinds 1k/2k with a 75 ante.Relevant stacks - Me - 19400UTG - 23200UTG moves all-in .... I have AKo. Call or Fold, and why? Link to post Share on other sites
Wingmaster05 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 All in.You've just made the money, something that usually triggers a sigh of relief in most players and it unveils a new agressiveness in most as well. You aren't in the best of positions at 19K and about to be 16K, half the average. Not that many players would push all here with AA or KK with 22K, they would limp/make a standard to small raise. That means we are rarely dominated.So we probably have a coin flip or ahead of many other non pair hands. I like call. Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Your M is about 5 and you're below the average - Perfect time to push as UTG could be pushing with a pretty wide range. You need to get more chips and this is a good time to take a shot. Link to post Share on other sites
iggymcfly 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Not even close to a tough decision; this is an automatic call. Against a typical villain, I'd give a hand range of 22-QQ, AK-AT, and KQ, with KJ-KT, QJ-QT, JT, AA, and KK mixed in occasionally as well. Link to post Share on other sites
Rocketwadster 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 UTG is also a short stack, so he needs to be making a move soon (as do you). Although Ace-King is a betting hand and not a calling hand, since you are such a short stack, you need to be making a move soon as well. Even though you didnt give your position at the table, it is a call. Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 I concur. Villain could be playing a lot of things and could be on a straight steal, seeing as the blinds are significant. Push it. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 I'm probably beating the guy in the pot if possible. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Yeah, I have no problem taking what is most likely a coinflip at this stage. If you double through, you've got a great chance to ft. Link to post Share on other sites
shpaget 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Iprobably call too - in fact, I personally think he'd be an idiot to move all-in with AA or KK.I'm quite confident that we are in OK shape here...we might be a coin flip behind, but I lean more towards AQ, AJ, Ax suited, QK, maybe even something like 67s...honestly, I'm not worried about UTG.My concern is what's behind me.So, does anyone change their decision, or at least think about it a bit more, if we know OP is UTG+1 and most of the other 8 stacks have you covered twice or thrice over (especially if average chipstack is 30k, and both villain and OP are under that).The last thing we want is to face 2 or 3 villains who all cover you, with AK.And with a pot pushing 50k, and the loose play that usually comes when you burst the bubble, you may get a guy figures he likes the fact that he only has to call half his stack to double up...and then guys behind him might like that they're getting 3:1 on their call...AK is very precarious here. Link to post Share on other sites
TheCinciKid 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Author Share Posted March 31, 2006 Iprobably call too - in fact, I personally think he'd be an idiot to move all-in with AA or KK.I'm quite confident that we are in OK shape here...we might be a coin flip behind, but I lean more towards AQ, AJ, Ax suited, QK, maybe even something like 67s...honestly, I'm not worried about UTG.My concern is what's behind me.So, does anyone change their decision, or at least think about it a bit more, if we know OP is UTG+1 and most of the other 8 stacks have you covered twice or thrice over (especially if average chipstack is 30k, and both villain and OP are under that).The last thing we want is to face 2 or 3 villains who all cover you, with AK.And with a pot pushing 50k, and the loose play that usually comes when you burst the bubble, you may get a guy figures he likes the fact that he only has to call half his stack to double up...and then guys behind him might like that they're getting 3:1 on their call...AK is very precarious here.Since you kind of asked. I was in MP. Either the button or the SB (can't remember which) was very shortstacked with about 10k. Nobody else at the table had significantly more chips than me or UTG to make it likely they would call. The button shortstack was probably going to call with anything legitimate because of the size of his stack. And that is something I didn't take into account. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 I'd call.Payouts are fairly flat in those things as I recall. ;)Blind stealing will not be as easy as players will gamble and push you off your little 3x BB raises... dbl ups are where it's at right now and decent opportunity here, rather than having to make a worse call after getting your hand caught stealing.- low chips relative to blinds/ante's- tougher to steal blinds- pretty wide range for UTG- you are very unlikely worse than a coinflip- flat payout.... 75th ~ 15th for all intents and purposes Link to post Share on other sites
oceansize 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 I like to fold here. AK is one of those hands that is great to raise with, very difficult to call with. You really need to have a good read on the player to call this I think. Is he the kind of guy to go all in early for a blind steal with KQ, any suited connecters, any pair, any Ace? Or is he a premium hand player, with anything from AA-AQ before making such a daring play?With no other info to go off of, I fold here because I just don't know. I'm not in to take $40 bucks for 75th place, I want to climb that ladder up the prize pool. First off if he has any pocket pair, your in a coin toss situation and actually are less likely to win if he has any of the broadway pairs. Also AK is just flat out a hand that needs to see a board. It needs to hit. Granted there are a lot of outs on most any board for AK, but you can completely miss the board and still come out smelling sweet if you out play your opponent. You just can't do that if you go all-in preflop.Escalating blinds are something to consider, of course, but your not in danger of being blinded out just yet, and also, that means more time for other shorter stacks to get knocked out. It's not impossible here to consider that you could fold every hand, get blinded out, and still end up 20 spots from where you are now on that prize ladder.Just my thought on the matter,Los Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 AK wants to see all 5 cards was always my understanding.Climb the ladder???It's really flat..like $12 per 10 places for a while here.... Link to post Share on other sites
oceansize 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 And I understand what you mean Actuary, I do, but I was trying to play devil's advocate a bit. Arguements could definitly be made for folding. And oh yeah, I probably am calling when I am in this situation. But I have folded hands such as this in such a situation. And gone on to place handsomely. Other times I just made a horrible laydown and finished no better than I would have had a made a play that I will now never know the outcome to.Amazingly, this has turned out to be not so much advice or an arguement but more of an amusing anecdote. This always happens to me when I post here. Link to post Share on other sites
TheCinciKid 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Author Share Posted March 31, 2006 I sort of get what oceansize is saying here, but I'm not in it to coast up another 20 spots. I'm in it to final table, especially now that I at least have some money to show for my time. I have to admit that after the hand I was leaning towards thinking it should have been a fold and now I'm pretty sure calling is correct. Results are irrelevant, but if anyone wants them I will post them later on. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 Results are irrelevant, but if anyone wants them I will post them later on.Yeah sure, I'd like to see them just for the heck of it. Link to post Share on other sites
amarillotg 0 Posted March 31, 2006 Share Posted March 31, 2006 if you want to ft or win this thing its an easy call. i can't see any reason for folding this unless moving up the prize ladder is crucial to you. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 Youve barely got coinflip odds, which is what youre going to come up with if you put him on ranges of hands. Since youre below average stack Id go for it. Link to post Share on other sites
TheCinciKid 0 Posted April 1, 2006 Author Share Posted April 1, 2006 Results - In case anyone cares.UTG had TT, and the button had only 10k left and ended up calling also with KK leaving me dead to an Ace. I didn't hit one and that was that. Link to post Share on other sites
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