97...but It Was Soooted

[rusmac31 0]

Hand from Winstar last weekend (live 1/2 NL game).Reads: Villian was competent player, a little aggressive but fairly straight forward...also one of those that tilts easily...he'd been sucked out on 3x in the last hour after having a stack of $260.Stack sizes:Hero: $90Villian: $130Caller 1: $200Caller 2: $200I have 9s7s in middle position...2 players call, I call, folded to button, he raises to $10, 2 callers and I call.couple of thoughts...I normally don't play 9s7s from any position but I hadn't had a hand in an hour and 9s7s looked really good.Calling the raise, after he raised i was planning on folding but after getting 2 callers, I was getting 4-1 to call and each of them had relatively large stacks.Was my flop call of the re-raise too loose?Pot: $40Flop: Kc, 10s, 6sCheck, Check, I check, villian bets $20, fold, fold, I re-raise all-in, Villian instantly calls with AA (no spade).What do you think of my play? What do you think of the villians play?

[DonkSlayer 1]

With $50 more to call in this situation, it's a clear call on his part. If the stacks were bigger and the pot was relatively smaller, your checkraise should give some ponderance, but he's probably still calling a $50 raise to see a turn.You on the other hand...Decided to play 9s7s. Fair enough, gotta mix it up. You checkraise him allin with that board. Do you do that if you know he's calling, which you should've known?If you do consistently, it's -EV. Again, you're drawing to 13 outs. You're about, 40% to win here?

[Scott3705 0]

You're really limited by your stack on this hand here.PF: limp calling here is fine IMO. If you had a little more chips, I think you lead into the raiser on the flop. and re-evaluate.After that, I say fold after he bets. You don't have enough chips for implied odds to justify peeling a card or create any sort of fold equity. Villain's play. raise a little bit more given the limpers and bet 3/4 the pot on the flop.

[Canada 0]

You are 47% against his Aces, however you don't know his holding until after all the money goes in.Against a reasonable range, given you said he was aggresive, you are at slightly less with 12 outs, about 43%.Assuming his bet means nothing (ie standard continuation) then getting it all in here is less than breakeven (43% of $200 total = $86) for the entire hand, however for the actual push of $80 it will be slightly +EV given that he will sometimes fold winning hands like 99.This hand shows why playing suited connectors needs deeper stacks to gather the implied odds, which is your only mistake in this hand - and even that is borderline. I prefer calling raises up to about 5% of the smaller stack (mine or villains), granted here the extra callers are providing value.Simply calling the flop bet is probably the best option as he has made a mistake by offering you 3-1 (slightly more than you need assuming clean outs) and you are likely to extract good value if an off suit 8 comes

[NoSup4U 0]

Assuming this guy doesn't have a set, not getting your money in here right now is wrong wrong wrong. If he has AK or AA you're fine, if he's making a continuation bet with AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ, TT, whatever, he folds. KK is the only hand you worry about.My money goes in like a flash of lightning. If he calls, unless he has KK, you're a 50/50 when the pot is laying you much better odds than that. This seems like a no brainer to me? And, if you think he's a good enough player to fold Aces to an all in, you can even say something like: 'Wow, it looks like you have Aces' right before you push it all in to make him worry about a set. But for that price, he's probably calling with AA or AK. Which isn't horrible for you.Mark

[Scott3705 0]

Assuming this guy doesn't have a set, not getting your money in here right now is wrong wrong wrong. If he has AK or AA you're fine, if he's making a continuation bet with AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ, TT, whatever, he folds. KK is the only hand you worry about.My money goes in like a flash of lightning. If he calls, unless he has KK, you're a 50/50 when the pot is laying you much better odds than that. This seems like a no brainer to me? And, if you think he's a good enough player to fold Aces to an all in, you can even say something like: 'Wow, it looks like you have Aces' right before you push it all in to make him worry about a set. But for that price, he's probably calling with AA or AK. Which isn't horrible for you.Mark

So by C/ring, we are essentially seeking a situation that we are running a coinflip race on a $40 pot. And on top of that we gave villain no opportunity to fold his hand. This seems inherentently wrong and I believe we should be looking for much more favorable situations than the one that is described here.

[rusmac31 0]

Donk,I figured he was going to call and yes I would've done the same thing knowing he was going to call.I agree with the above poster, the only hand that I"m way behind (that I think he'd raise with) is KK or 1010 and I think he'd easily raise with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AK - AJ.I'm almost 50/50 to win the hand if it goes to the river and I'm getting almost 1.7 - 1 on the flop(if my math is right) plus I think I have fold equity.I think that in most cases, this is +EV...your thoughts?

[Scott3705 0]

Donk,I figured he was going to call and yes I would've done the same thing knowing he was going to call.I agree with the above poster, the only hand that I"m way behind (that I think he'd raise with) is KK or 1010 and I think he'd easily raise with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AK - AJ.I'm almost 50/50 to win the hand if it goes to the river and I'm getting almost 1.7 - 1 on the flop(if my math is right) plus I think I have fold equity.I think that in most cases, this is +EV...your thoughts?

You have no fold equity IMO. you simply don't have enough chips. If you were determined to get em in on this flop, I'd rather see an open push into the raiser than C/ring all in.

[rusmac31 0]

Scott,There was $60 in the pot when I check raised, so if we know the villian is likely to call (which is almost certain if he has AA)...we are getting 1.7 - 1 for what is essentially a coin flip.That seems +EV to me...your thoughts?i agree...I probably have some fold equity if I push the flop, although this is 1/2 NL so he's not folding AA on that board (I wouldn't either).so take away the fold equity...we are still getting almost 1.8 - 1 for a coin flip situation.Isn't that what we want?

[Scott3705 0]

Scott,There was $60 in the pot when I check raised, so if we know the villian is likely to call (which is almost certain if he has AA)...we are getting 1.7 - 1 for what is essentially a coin flip.That seems +EV to me...your thoughts?

no, I understand that.... I'm talking about the hand as a hole.By checking the flop with the intention of getting all your chips in when he bets, you are effectively running a coinflip for a $40 pot (the point at which the decision was made). If you're going to get them in the middle anyway, push into the raiser and let him fold hands like QQ's, JJ's, etc. He may still call, but atleast you've bought more fold equity than C/ring. Also 1.5/1 is a much smaller edge than I like to put my stack in with if I know I'm getting called.

[DonkSlayer 1]

And, Boo for trying to play for coin flips.

[rusmac31 0]

Scott,I agree that c/r doesn't give me any fold equity...good point. You are right, the edge is 1.5 - 1...I miscalculated (basically I'm betting $80 to win $120)...thanks for that.ok...so let's ask the question another way...let's say I check the flop and he puts us all-in, we are getting 1.5-1 but we are the ones facing the tough decision.Against his likely holdings, you are most likely anywhere from a 44% - 48% favorite to win the hand. In a cash game, do you not call a situation where you are getting 1.5 - 1 for a coin flip? I think not calling here would be a mistake.50% on my money for a coin flip is good enough for me...are we just discussing risk profiles?Donk,Coin flips are perfectly ok if you are getting the right price. At what price would you play a coin flip? What's your minimum threshhold?Regards

[Scott3705 0]

Scott,I agree that c/r doesn't give me any fold equity...good point. You are right, the edge is 1.5 - 1...I miscalculated (basically I'm betting $80 to win $120)...thanks for that.ok...so let's ask the question another way...let's say I check the flop and he puts us all-in, we are getting 1.5-1 but we are the ones facing the tough decision.Against his likely holdings, you are most likely anywhere from a 44% - 48% favorite to win the hand. In a cash game, do you not call a situation where you are getting 1.5 - 1 for a coin flip? I think not calling here would be a mistake.50% on my money for a coin flip is good enough for me...are we just discussing risk profiles?Donk,Coin flips are perfectly ok if you are getting the right price. At what price would you play a coin flip? What's your minimum threshhold?Regards

You hit it right on the head: risk profiles. I have no problem being in this type of situation being the aggressor. It happens a lot with the way I play. But as far as playing in situations I know are getting to shown down, at the limits I play (1/2 and 2/5 live and 1/2 online) its not hard to find edges that are much bigger.I step back again though and point out your stack size here. Given your stack size, i don't know. Maybe I'm alright with it. It just seems wrong in my head.

[DonkSlayer 1]

You hit it right on the head: risk profiles. I have no problem being in this type of situation being the aggressor. It happens a lot with the way I play. But as far as playing in situations I know are getting to shown down, at the limits I play (1/2 and 2/5 live and 1/2 online) its not hard to find edges that are much bigger.I step back again though and point out your stack size here. Given your stack size, i don't know. Maybe I'm alright with it. It just seems wrong in my head.

Well, calling here makes more sense in a cash game then it does in a tourney, but personally, I dont' like to play for coinflips unless my investment is really nice; something like 3-1. I'm not into variance, and I tend to avoid it if at all possible. Remember, you're still a very slight underdog...if you make this play consistently over a long period of time, you will lose money even if the math works right and you take exactly 48% of the pots. You were shortstacked though and I understand why you would be more willing to take the risk in this situation; however I feel you're implying that you would do this kind of thing on a normal basis with varying stacks sizes, and I just can't subscribe to that school of thought.

[Foulky 0]

Well, calling here makes more sense in a cash game then it does in a tourney, but personally, I dont' like to play for coinflips unless my investment is really nice; something like 3-1. I'm not into variance, and I tend to avoid it if at all possible. Remember, you're still a very slight underdog...if you make this play consistently over a long period of time, you will lose money even if the math works right and you take exactly 48% of the pots. You were shortstacked though and I understand why you would be more willing to take the risk in this situation; however I feel you're implying that you would do this kind of thing on a normal basis with varying stacks sizes, and I just can't subscribe to that school of thought.

We really aren't thinking about the other option enough. What happens if we just call? What happens if certain cards hit the turn, like a key card for your hand. Do you get paid off if you hit your card on the turn, and is the pot small enough where you can fold your hand if a blank hits the turn. If these are both the case then i think we have to smooth call the flop. Also, if there is a possibility that he checks the turn to us, and we get a free river card then calling would be more profitable there too, however, since he has AA he is not checking the turn.

[rusmac31 0]

Donk,I can appreciate if you want a better situation than 1.5 - 1 on a coin flip, but if we get our money in where we have a 48% chance to win and it's paying 1.5 - 1, that is + EV long term. It may be a smaller edge than you prefer but it's definitely an edge.How can you support that it's -EV? The math is fairly straightforward unless I"m missing something.After giving it some more thought and taking into account your guys input, I think I like this line better:Pot $40 (before flop)Flop: Kc, 10s, 6sHero bets $40, Villian...This way I have some fold equity (albeit, at 1/2 NL and 1/2 way decent player is going to put me all-in for the rest of my stack given they have me covered)And if he does put me all-in, I can call knowing I'm getting like 4-1.Thanks guys for the input.Rusty

[Dratj 0]

With $50 more to call in this situation, it's a clear call on his part. If the stacks were bigger and the pot was relatively smaller, your checkraise should give some ponderance, but he's probably still calling a $50 raise to see a turn.You on the other hand...Decided to play 9s7s. Fair enough, gotta mix it up. You checkraise him allin with that board. Do you do that if you know he's calling, which you should've known?If you do consistently, it's -EV. Again, you're drawing to 13 outs. You're about, 40% to win here?

40%? no. with 13 outs, he's a slight favourite but it's close to 50 50.

[srblan 0]

If you are willing to play other hands like this, I don't mind the play at all (set, for example). It will probably get you a lot of action if the other players are staying in the game for a while.Why is it that I can only find 12 outs? 9 spades and 3 8s, right?

[gooch 0]

If you are willing to play other hands like this, I don't mind the play at all (set, for example). It will probably get you a lot of action if the other players are staying in the game for a while.Why is it that I can only find 12 outs? 9 spades and 3 8s, right?

Nice spades for flush3 eights for straightrunner runner 7 and 9 for 2 pairs?

[srblan 0]

Nice spades for flush3 eights for straightrunner runner 7 and 9 for 2 pairs?

Dunno if you count runner runner in this spot.

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

Lead out a pot sized best. Like Scott said, you kill any fold equity here.

[macphec 0]

discussing risk profiles?

Yes