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Is This The Correct Play?


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Blinds 80/160I have 9,000 in chips and am sitting in 3rd place.There are 20 left and the $10+$1 multi pays to 7th. There were 57 entrants.SB has 900 in chips before positng his SB.BB has been gone and is finally all in on his BB for 140 chips.Folds to me on the button with Ks 8cI go all-in, good or bad? why?

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Depends - I think a standard raise will usually serve the same purpose.He'll fold or push (or possibly call/lead allin).Can you fold if he reraises a 480 bet? If not, push works...you're winning against two random hands (I think).(is this a stupid site that lets a player play if they're allin, even when not seated...or is it an intelligent site that folds any player not seated whether they have chips in play or not)

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Off the top of my head I dont like it. You are in solid position and thinking about stealing incomplete blinds with a push that can cost you 10% of your stack. While this is an above average hand, is it above average against whats going to call you?Lets say the 900 is pretty desperate and will call you with a wide range of hands. Put him on any pair, any A, any two Broadway and suited connectors down to 65. The winning percentages are about 29%, 43% and 28% (you, SB, BB) . SB is calling (if I can count this early in the morning) 30% of all hands.So 70% of the time we are playing for 220, with a 56:44 edge over the BB, a net profit of 18.50.30% of the time: we win it all 29% of the time (picking up 1040), lose to both (losing 900) 39% of the time, beat SB but lose to BB (picking up 760) 13% of the time and beat BB but lose to SB (losing 900) 19% of the time. All of that nets out to -36.50.So overall we are -18 for the 900 bet.Are there any advantages to offset the small -EV? You can knock out 2 players, or have a better chance of knocking out at least 1 player, but this far from the money its chip ratios that matter, not who holds them. We can pick up 1040 chips which may move us marginally ahead of the current 2d and/or 1st place players, but not by much most likely.Looking at gigabet's "Chip block theory" extra chips will be more valuable than the ones we lose if we have a a narrow lead over 4th place (ie we dont already have surplus chips over them), and/or we arent behind 1st and 2d place significantly, so we can eat up some of their "Surplus" leverage.Conversely the extra chips we lose will be more valuable if we are already far behind 1 and 2 and/or lose a significant amount of our surplus over 4th and below.So the answer is, pushing is marginally -EV unless the stacks are fairly tightly packed in the top 5 or so places, in which case it might be marginally +EV.

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The top stacks are pretty tightly packed, but I don't think this made any immediate difference on what I should do here, I'm chipleader at my table by over double the next stack down. The SB wasn't desperate, he had this big of stack for like the last 2 rounds and hadn't made a move with bad ace or small PP yet. I think the odds of him calling for his tournament life here are very slim, so it looks to me like i'm getting an over 50% chance with K8 over BB's random hand to win 220 chips, only risking 140. It's full tilt so it does put him automatically going all-in and playing to the river.

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The top stacks are pretty tightly packed, but I don't think this made any immediate difference on what I should do here, I'm chipleader at my table by over double the next stack down. The SB wasn't desperate, he had this big of stack for like the last 2 rounds and hadn't made a move with bad ace or small PP yet. I think the odds of him calling for his tournament life here are very slim, so it looks to me like i'm getting an over 50% chance with K8 over BB's random hand to win 220 chips, only risking 140. It's full tilt so it does put him automatically going all-in and playing to the river.
I already put him on 30% calling/70% folding..you think hes tighter than that?
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Yes, why would he be calling even close to 30% of the time here? He only has like 1/11th of his stack invested.

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Yes, why would he be calling even close to 30% of the time here? He only has like 1/11th of his stack invested.
Im talking about the 900 stack (820 after his blind) in the small blind calling a push from the table leader in steal position. He is always behind the big stack preflop except when big stack is BB and he is UTG and has the rest of the table behind him.He is almost never going to get first in vigorish in this position so to tightnen up to 30% of all hands when he is essentially HU against a possible steal seems way too tight to me.
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