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Very Tough Pot Odds Decision


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Playing $1-$2 NL at Foxwoods.....been playing for about an hour stack is $190...Only reads on players involved in hand:MP3- Straightforward player, not mixing it up too much ($100 in chips)Small Blind- Extremely loose, rebought twice since I sat down($200 in chips)I get KsKc UTG and raise to $12MP3 callsSB callsPot-$38Flop Qs3sQdSB checksI bet $15MP3 callsSB callsPot-$83Turn 8sSmall Blind bets $20I call MP3 calls $20, moves all-in for $50 moreSB foldsSo here is my dilemna...There is $193 in the pot, it is $50 more for me to call with the overpair and the Ks redraw....I am 100% sure I am beat by either the trip queens or the flush that just hit, but I figure to have about 10 outs if he hasn't filled up or made the nut flush which I don't put him on based on my read of him during the hand...Getting 4:1pot odds on the call ($50 to win $200), and based on my read that I have around 10 outs with 46 unseen cards left, what do you I do here?

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The pot size and the odds you're getting are enough to make you committed here I think.Also:If he has the non-nut flush, you've got 11 outs actually - 7 spades to make a higher flush, and 2 queens or 2 kings to fill up.If he's got trip queens (less likely), again you have 11 outs - 9 spades to make the flush and 2 kings to fill up.In both cases you're a bit better than a 4-1 dog.I call and hope he doesn't have the nut flush or the one hand that's quite possible given all the action that has us totally smoked: AQ with the Ace of Spades.

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Flop Qs3sQdSB checksI bet $15MP3 callsSB callsPot-$83First this is way to small of bet. I would put in a much larger bet than $15. Maybe closer to the size of the pot. I don't want any draws sticking around and now since they did call you have no idea where they are at. Turn 8sSmall Blind bets $20I call MP3 calls $20, moves all-in for $50 moreSB foldsI'm pretty sure your beat here. with the SB showing strength for the first time MP3 has to assume he as a good hand so going all-in tells me has AKs, AQ or is boated with a set of 3's or 8's. I would fold here.

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i agree that the turn bet was weak...that is not what im concerned about..my question is whether i was getting enough odds to call on the turn and whether other factors should have influenced by decision...i had been accumulating chips quite easily in my first hour at the table and, even if i call and lose im still sitting with my initial $100 buy inmy dilemna is that i KNOW i am beat right now...there is no way this guy is moving in here without having the queens or the flush..can i call the extra $50 KNOWING i am beat?

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i agree that the turn bet was weak...that is not what im concerned about..my question is whether i was getting enough odds to call on the turn and whether other factors should have influenced by decision...i had been accumulating chips quite easily in my first hour at the table and, even if i call and lose im still sitting with my initial $100 buy inmy dilemna is that i KNOW i am beat right now...there is no way this guy is moving in here without having the queens or the flush..can i call the extra $50 KNOWING i am beat?
It depends on your read.If you think he's holding the nut flush, then you aren't getting odds to call, as you only have 4 outs.If you think he's holding a boat, then you aren't getting the odds to call, as you only have potentially 3 outs.If you think your spade draw is good, then you're getting the odds to call.The point the other poster made about the turn bet is that if you bet stronger on the turn, you're putting more pressure on him to fold, or if he does move all in, you're basically priced in at that point no matter what. Giving him this chance to re-raise allows him to put you in a spot where if you are beat, you're getting horrible odds to call, and you might fold.
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I had a good feeling the spade draw was live because i figured him for Qx rather than the flush..So i called the extra $50 and he tabled 9s10s...so instead of 11 outs i had 10 outs (the Js would give him the straight flush)Needless to say the 8h hit the river and i was steaming (at myself) for making a call when i was 100% sure i was beat...the pot odds just seemed so close to me i wanted to get some extra feedback

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I get KsKc UTG and raise to $12Flop Qs3sQdSB checksI bet $15
Flop bet too small??? I really don't like it. by my count there is $38 in the pot, a bet of $15 seems light to me.
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The pot size and the odds you're getting are enough to make you committed here I think.Also:If he has the non-nut flush, you've got 11 outs actually - 7 spades to make a higher flush, and 2 queens or 2 kings to fill up.If he's got trip queens (less likely), again you have 11 outs - 9 spades to make the flush and 2 kings to fill up.In both cases you're a bit better than a 4-1 dog.I call and hope he doesn't have the nut flush or the one hand that's quite possible given all the action that has us totally smoked: AQ with the Ace of Spades.
OP doesn't have 9 spades if he's up against trip queens since the queen probably has a kicker to hit which would fill him up.
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Flop bet too small??? I really don't like it. by my count there is $38 in the pot, a bet of $15 seems light to me.
I too hate this flop bet. At least 3/4 of the pot at a min. We'll find out where that Q is if its there. Your basically giving great odds to draw to that flush.
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ok. let's assume that the villain has us beat...but not by an ace high flush. So your outs are 2 kings and 9 spades...that's 11 outs. 46 unseen cards. You need over 4.18 on your money to make it a +EV call. There is 193 in the pot and you have to put 50$ in. You are getting 3.86 to 1 on your money here. So...I think you should fold. BTW, this is your best case scenario, what if he has a lower flush...you only have 7 spades now. Since we are sure we are beat right now...folding gives you +EV.

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