thecamelot 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Who 3-bets the flop?I thought about hiding some parts of the hand, but instead I'm going to show my entire portion. Wheres the problem here?Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is BB with K , A . 4 folds, MP3 raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls, Button calls.Flop: (9.50 SB) 3 , Q , 4 (3 players)Hero bets, MP3 raises, Button calls, Hero calls.Turn: (7.75 BB) 3 (3 players)Hero checks, MP3 bets, Button calls, Hero folds Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 why would anyone 3-bet flop?Apparently, you don't give yourself 4 outs on the turn?closing the action usually, on the river, I probably call the turn.But its real close. Link to post Share on other sites
Pancake407 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 I fold this spot too, you could easily be reverse dominated here. Link to post Share on other sites
thecamelot 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Author Share Posted March 22, 2006 Are my Ace and/or king outs necessarily good? AQ and KQ are possibilities, and Button could have ace rag that paired up. Reverse domination is a fear of mine here.I wouldn't 3-bet the flop, clearly, just making sure that's a good thing Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 AA-QQ cap a lot preflopHe can't haveAQ and KQ.Question is can button have KQ? maybe... Button seems like a mid PP, hoping for AK from you allI don't think we need to discount hardly for the spades.If we assume he has less than KQ somtimes, we can call, I don't know... its close, I'm swayed because we might bet 11.75 by the river, closing action Link to post Share on other sites
thecamelot 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Author Share Posted March 22, 2006 Why can't he have AQ or KQ?I'd play the offsuit of those hands probably this exact way. Link to post Share on other sites
Pancake407 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 He can't haveAQ and KQ.Howcome?EDIT: I get it now, he cant have AQ AND KQ. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Why can't he have AQ or KQ?I'd play the offsuit of those hands probably this exact way.I said AND.Meaning, at least 3 of your outs are good.And 6 are when he has QJs, or something like that.You only need 3 outs if you win 11.5 (excluding you two BB's)it's too close to matter imo. Link to post Share on other sites
mclark340 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 I would not 3 bet before the flop from the BB.If you hit the flop you will get paid by the raiser.If you miss, you need to drive the betting with nothing.You failed with your original raise...now you are beat. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 I would not 3 bet before the flop from the BB.You don't think we have enough of a preflop equity edge to exploit here? Link to post Share on other sites
thecamelot 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Author Share Posted March 22, 2006 I said AND.Meaning, at least 3 of your outs are good.Right This isn't Omaha?And I don't have any question about preflop, 3 betting is correct IMO. My flop and forward play is my concern. Definitely enough equity to exploit. Link to post Share on other sites
mclark340 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Why make it 3 out of position? Link to post Share on other sites
thecamelot 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Author Share Posted March 22, 2006 Why call and give up the lead on the hand?He's in MP3 with no one in the pot. His raising range is lowered, and we have AK. Calling is sooooooo weak. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Why make it 3 out of position?Because we will win this hand far more than 33%We let our cold calling button make another mistake.Yeah, pos sux and I don't raise KJ here, like I would on the CO after two limpers, but AK is too "ahead" Link to post Share on other sites
NWNewell 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 I would not 3 bet before the flop from the BB.If you hit the flop you will get paid by the raiser.If you miss, you need to drive the betting with nothing.You failed with your original raise...now you are beat.I like this line as well. If you hit, you can either let MP3 do your betting and slow play an unintimidating board, and you'll trap the button in the middle with your check/raise on the turn or river (calling MP3's bet, then calling your raise).If you hit with an scarier board, you can bet and possibly have MP3 raise the button out of the pot.And if you don't hit, you can dump your hand without having commited as much money.I don't think 3-betting is a losing play. I agree we have enough preflop equity to 3-bet.But my thought is that basically you can probably get just as much money by only calling the pre-flop raise from the BB when you do hit since your strength is hidden and you can trap the button. But you save an extra small bet everytime you miss. And since you will miss more often than not, I think only calling pre-flop is probably worth extra EV.If everyone but MP3 folded, I would 3-bet. And I would 3-bet on occation just to mix up my play (since I don't think it is a loosing play).But that's just my half a cent...... Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 I like this line as well...... But that's just my two cents......you're overvaluing your contribution. Link to post Share on other sites
NWNewell 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 you're overvaluing your contribution.Sorry... Is that better?(I correct the post)So let's take a closer look at my half a cent worth if input.If we make the dumb assumption that your oppoents will play the same way post flop wether you call the 2-bet or 3-bet, we will assume that all money won after the flop is a washout in this decision.So, with us 3-betting and MP3 and the button calling, and a 32% chance of us hitting the flop, our 3-bet has an +EV = 0.36BB. Pretty good for a pre-flop decision.With us only calling the 2-bet, we have a +EV =0.38BB. Only slightly, but better.Now, obviously our assumption is wrong. Our pre-flop 3-bet is going to worry at least one of our opponents. And I guarantee you it is going to cost us some post flop EV.And when you consider the fact that you have now oppened the door for a possilbe cap, your preflop EV could drop to +0.34BB.So you went from a guarenteed EV of +0.38BB (plus a strong possibility of additional post flop EV) to possibily as low as +0.34BB.Obviously we are bickering over a diference of a 0.04BB decision pre-flop. But I think only calling the 2 bet will increase your post flop EV even more.You are not going to drive anyone else out with your 3-bet. And it is not for value. So why are you three betting? Link to post Share on other sites
Pancake407 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 flat calling here is weak. raise for value. Link to post Share on other sites
thecamelot 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Author Share Posted March 22, 2006 Raising is for value!! Link to post Share on other sites
NWNewell 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Raising is for value!!I'm not trying to be a jerk.... but please explain to me why raising is for value? I ran through the numbers I posted and to me it looks like raising lowers the EV. If my numbers are wrong, show me the right numbers and how you got there.I don't clam to be an expert by any means. But if you can't come up with a better reply than "You are overvaluing your contrabution" and statement like "Raising is for value." without backing up your clam, I'm not going to be convinced.PS If there are 3 other players in the pot instead of 2, then I agree re-raising is for value (0.92BB to 0.78BB). But not really when there are 2... it is maybe an even money raise at best. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 NWNewellI like your style; but I hate your math.Lets just assume that the 32% to hit the flop is key, to stay with your logic.there is 5.5 in pot.32% of 5.5 - 68% of 1 = 1.0832% of 7.5 - 68% of 2 = 1.04You win right?No.We aren't folding on the flop very often.We will win at showdown more than 32%that is the value you should use..say we win at SD 35%.35% of 5.5 - 65% of 1 = 1.27535% of 7.5 - 65% of 2 = 1.325I win.And we will win more than 35% of the time.We will also win Unimproved a lot more 3-betting hereWe will also get to see if its capped. We "lose" 0.04 SB's if you assume both call our 3-bet and we fold on flops we miss and no one ever folds to our continuation bet and we lose the hand 68% of the time....Raise for Value / Fold Equity / Information / Fun / Value / Image / Just Do It. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Why make it 3 out of position?VALUEI'm not trying to be a jerk.... but please explain to me why raising is for value?Because, we are putting in 33% of the money, and we will win this hand FAR more than 33% of the time.Not only that, but raising takes the lead in the hand. I don't care if I'm OOP. Just like you say there's a 33% chance that we hit the flop, there's a 66% chance that each opponent misses the flop, 43% that they BOTH miss the flop. Taking the lead is key.AK is a HUGE money making hand. Make that money!- Zach Link to post Share on other sites
NWNewell 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 We will win at showdown more than 32%that is the value you should use..say we win at SD 35%.35% of 5.5 - 65% of 1 = 1.27535% of 7.5 - 65% of 2 = 1.325I win.And we will win more than 35% of the time.Now, that is the kind of response I'm looking for. But I don't even think it is my math that you hate. It is my assumptions. I can understand where you are coming from. And I agree with you... to an extent.Yes, you win if you assume the extreemly hypothetical situation that the two other players call the three bet and check down to the river. But you are first to act, so you can't count on the free cards at all.And you can't use win at SD percentage without taking into account bets on future rounds.In the case that both players play to the river, the EV's are:+0.738BB for the 3-bet+0.713BB for the 2-bet callYou win.However, if anything deviates from this ideal situation, you lose.If one player doesn't call the turn bet:+0.563BB for the 3-bet+0.538SB for the 2-bet callIf the player drops out on the flop, the diference is even worse.Yes, we can add in the fact that both may fold and our AK may hold up UI. But it is also true that by 3-betting, we have greatly increases their drawing odds as well, and it may even be more likely that they will correctly draw. So, I would assume this arguement to almost be a wash.If our AK holds up uninproved at the river, I would consider that a gift. I wouldn't count on it.Plus, all that implied odds and assumptions about later rounds before you even see the flop has too much standard deviation for me.So, I guess you could say this desicion is boarderline, depending on future actions. But I still say you can get an increased postflop EV from check/raises that will most likely charge both of your opponents an extra bet after only calling. The EV from this postflop action will exceed the EV in the scinarios that your preflop play alone is correct.But hey, I guess when it comes down to it, we are really talking about a boarderline play. If we knew what they other players had and how they were going to act, one play would be optimal and one wouldn't. But since we don't and both are pretty postitive EV with small differences (I mean, hey... we're talking about differences of less than 0.1BB.. talk about spliting hairs), I guess neither is wrong. As I said, I definitely would mix it up, but proabably only call the 2-bet more often than 3-bet in this situation. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 its not close.they play poorly post flopthey cold call from the button in a HU pot, so we know he sux.ok, I don't hate your math, at first I was confused how you got your values, but after confirming a 0.04 SB differential, it was moot.We aren't committed to SD, just as they aren'tWe will get paid off by KT, K8s, AT off, QQ, KQ, AQ, etc... Its really not close in reality.Not raising 77 out of the BB because it increases the drawing odds makes sense; but with AK, we often want to see the turn, and the extra 2 SB will help make it correct to do so. (that in itself is not a reason to raise, but it counters the drawing odds for them argument)You underestimate the value of folding our villans pocket pairs when the flop comes QJ5 for example.Do you realize a 13% fold equity gain from this 3-bet makes the extra bet a washout on that bases alone, ignoring the additional fact we win the two extra bets over 1/3 of the time!!!!holy cow.RAISE AINEC!btw, you are not the first person to adocate this.We realize lots of others hate raising out of the blinds.CardPlayer mag will f your small stakes games up. Link to post Share on other sites
NWNewell 0 Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 btw, you are not the first person to adocate this.We realize lots of others hate raising out of the blinds.CardPlayer mag will f your small stakes games up.Actually, I don't mind raising out of the BB at all (depending on the situation). But I think that in certain situations, like this one, only calling the 2-bet from the BB can be better.I don't read CardPlayer much. Occationally I'll glance through it. But I really don't study the articals for stratagy. I think I actually pulled this like from one of David Salansky's books somewhere.Also, I mostly play 5/10 on Party. Occationally 10/20 on pacific and 3/6 on Poker Starts. So, I may be making poor assumptions about the typical 2/4 players. Or maybe I'm way off and that is why I'm only slightly better than a breakeven player at the limits I'm playing at.At any rate, I really appricate the more insightful responses. Gives me alot more to think about and try to figure out the why behind the play so I can try to apply it to different situations. Instead of taking someones random statement as gospel and only being able to apply it (possibly incorrectly) to that specific situation.I have thoughts on a rebuttle to some of your comments. But I have to think about it more. I could be wrong.Thanks for the debat.Later,Newell Link to post Share on other sites
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